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Fold or shove AA on turn?

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Fold or shove AA on turn? - Sat May 17, 2014, 08:26 AM
(#1)
adikumar2010's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,094
It's Saturday Micro $3.30.

Opponent is ultra loose and aggressive. He can have QJ, Q8, Q6, J6, J8, 66, 88, 9T. These are the hands that beat me, plus he can have 5X garbage hand combos in his range as he is super-LAG. At the time I am posting this hand, I know what garbage he showed up with. But I don't know whether he has it this time or just making idiotic bluff.

I totally have no idea whether to shove or fold there with my AA. I had 5 hands on him only that time. I folded coz I had no idea what to do. Calling is out of the question.



STATS at the time hand happened:



Maybe you can take help from the stats I am posting below :


STATS after 20 hands, he calls preflop raise with Q4s, 78o and I don't know what other garbage, his 3-Bet is all-in :

Last edited by adikumar2010; Sat May 17, 2014 at 08:42 AM..
 
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Sat May 17, 2014, 12:47 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,787
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Hi adikumar2010!

We cannot say that this opp is ultra-loose nor aggressive... we only have FIVE hands on them. What they do after the fact is 100% irrelevant to this hand. Looking at later hands is being results oriented and that is not what we want to do as poker players.

With AA and a limp in front of me, I need to make a standard raise, which for this blind level is to 3BB+1BB for each limper. I cannot bet less than this. I have the best hand and the last thing that I want to do is to give the opps the correct odds to try to outdraw me. By betting smaller than normal, if there are any smarter players behind me, I will price in their marginal holdings and if I give them the correct odds and they do outdraw me, it's my own fault that I lose the hand.

I flop an overpair and when it checks to me, I once again need to make a standard value bet. With 2 opps in the hand, a standard bet is 2/3 pot, so I need to bet 140... no more, no less. I do not want to bet less than this or I can be giving the opp the correct odds to try to outdraw me.

The turn is a card that could have helped the opp and I need to once again, make a standard value bet. With one opp in the hand, a standard bet is 1/2 pot, so I will bet 285.. no more, no less.

The opp now makes a very large raise. With this being a new opp (basically readless), while I do have aces, I only have one pair and due to this, I need to fold to the raise as there are multiple combinations of 2 pair that are within the opp's range.

The big problems with this hand though are the bet sizes and the line taken.
The bet sizes that were made, priced in marginal hands like Q8 or J8 preflop. That is why, especially against looser opps, I cannot bet small. If I bet small, I price in more marginal hands, so they will be able to play them back at me profitably.

The other problem here is with the line taken. Too small of a raise preflop says weakness, too small of a flop bet says weakness again, then an overbet on the turn says strength... this is NOT a consistent line and does not make sense. When a line does not make any sense, it's normally a bluff and due to this, if I was in the opp's shoes, if I had a Q or J, I'd be more than happy raising the turn here with ANY pair. If the opp is bluffing, I win the pot and if they are not bluffing, I may be able to get them to fold the best hand, as they can't stay in the hand if they cannot beat 2 pair.

When playing poker, I need to make standard consistent bets that tell a consistent story throughout the entire hand. I also don't want to be results oriented. I want to take all of the information at my disposal at a given point in time and make my best decision... that's all that is within my control.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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