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Can I take risk?

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Can I take risk? - Sat May 17, 2014, 04:00 PM
(#1)
adikumar2010's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,094
It's Saturday Countdown $22 [120 mins] Time tournament. And I just need to survive 14mins more as it was the last level VIII.

I have 21BB, if I don't play any hand for next 15mins I will get about $90 as per my stack.

But I think if the time tourny is coming to an end then we should not stop playing all hands as we are guaranteed to get 4 or 5 times of our buyin.

This should not influence our decision in big way when little time is left. But we can avoid taking risks as we would take when the tournament is in early or middle stage.

Keeping all that into account, what should be my play here?


PokerStars Hand #116313934072: Tournament #904272061, $20+$2 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (300/600) - 2014/05/18 0:21:52 IST [2014/05/17 14:51:52 ET]
Table '904272061 18' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: lordjosejose (13498 in chips)
Seat 2: adikumar2010 (12768 in chips)
Seat 3: pugalan (9258 in chips)
Seat 4: dismarc (43919 in chips)
Seat 5: dolar484 (13033 in chips)
Seat 6: G.I. Silla (7190 in chips)
Seat 7: Play_yyer99 (66279 in chips)
Seat 8: star729 (22589 in chips)
Seat 9: saturas66666 (50891 in chips)
lordjosejose: posts the ante 60
adikumar2010: posts the ante 60
pugalan: posts the ante 60
dismarc: posts the ante 60
dolar484: posts the ante 60
G.I. Silla: posts the ante 60
Play_yyer99: posts the ante 60
star729: posts the ante 60
saturas66666: posts the ante 60
lordjosejose: posts small blind 300
adikumar2010: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to adikumar2010 [Td Ts]
pugalan: folds
dismarc: raises 600 to 1200
dolar484: calls 1200
G.I. Silla: folds
Play_yyer99: folds
star729: folds
saturas66666: folds
lordjosejose: folds
adikumar2010: ??
 
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Sat May 17, 2014, 04:18 PM
(#2)
Roslyn_akka's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 263
For me action from UTG and UTG+1 make it fold? If we shove I´d say we be flipping most cases and calling to setmine we dont have odds.

(Just giving my thoughts to see how far off I am lol)


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Last edited by Roslyn_akka; Sat May 17, 2014 at 04:20 PM..
 
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Sat May 17, 2014, 10:54 PM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
(Head Trainer)
Hi adi,

It seems like a math problem to me, so I will charge you with the task of the maths.

We would have to estimate their ranges, what they will fold/call with, and the equity of our stack in terms of prize pool when we go with this hand (simplify the math by assuming when we get called, only 1 caller). So we get called and win to more than double up some % of time, get called and go bust some % of time, and don't get called the rest to increase our stack by 6.5bb's.

In a regular pay structure mtt where our goal is to win the event, I think this spot is a shove, albeit close given the position of the opener. This isn't a tournament we're trying to win however, we just have to survive 14 more minutes, so my guess is that it's probably a fold, the risk of blowing off 4.5 buy ins this close to the end probably outweighs the potential gain in the math above which is on balance maybe 1 more buy in of equity at best?


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Sun May 18, 2014, 07:37 AM
(#4)
adikumar2010's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,094
If I double up in this hand I will have 26k which means I will get around $220 for investing $22 (which is 10x ROI). If I pass this spot and just keep folding (Except AA,KK) for remaining 14mins which means 2-3 orbits. I will get down to 9k roughly and I will make like $77 which is 3.5x ROI (assuming I don't win any pot for last 14mins)

Now I did the math as you said here what it has to say:


I have 45% hand equity and you can also leverage some fold equity like 10% (1/10 times they might fold). And they will not be risking to bust with there AJ AT AQ KJ (They will be flipping), 22-JJ coz they can also see only 14mins are left.

If they plan to call with AK it's a flip if they have 22-99 and they call I am super-happy. Rest I don't think they are in mood to risk with AT, AJ, AQ, KQs, KJs, etc.

Now taking all this into factor what would you do Mr.Hitman ?

Last edited by adikumar2010; Sun May 18, 2014 at 07:43 AM..
 
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Sun May 18, 2014, 02:39 PM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
(Head Trainer)
Hi adi,

There's no need to re-request evaluation every time you have a follow up.

You haven't done the math. All you did was run equities. Finish the math to determine, based on your assumptions about their calling ranges, what the actual chip EV of shoving is.

The formula is this: Chip EV = gain when they fold + gain when called and we win - loss when called and we lose.

I expect the chip EV will be positive. So then that is what you can use to determine your new share of the prize pool, your stack after shoving. I expect it will not be worth the risk of losing the 3.5 buy in gain.


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Sun May 18, 2014, 04:29 PM
(#6)
adikumar2010's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,094
I thought I need to click on re-request evaluation to get attention or else it will get lost in the forums.

EV = (3840 + 14808) - 12768 = 5880 chips

So what does it tell us?

I don't know this concept very well. (So then that is what you can use to determine your new share of the prize pool, your stack after shoving.)

Last edited by adikumar2010; Sun May 18, 2014 at 09:05 PM.. Reason: Mistake in chip gain when called
 
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Sun May 18, 2014, 08:42 PM
(#7)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by adikumar2010 View Post
I thought I need to click on re-request evaluation to get attention or else it will get lost in the forums.

EV = (3840 + 27576) - 12768 = 18648 chips

So what does it tell us?

I don't know this concept very well. (So then that is what you can use to determine your new share of the prize pool, your stack after shoving.)
Ok... you need to factor in the % of times each event happens. For example, they both fold to a shove and we win 3840 chips X% of the time. We get called Y% of the time. When we get called, we win A% and lose B% (this comes from your equity calc vs. his calling range).

Also our chip gain when we get called and win is 14808 by my count, don't count your own stack as that's not a gain, it's villains stack off to us + the other callers dead 1200 + blinds/antes.

So EV = 3840*X% + (14808*Y%*A% - 12768*Y%*B% = ? chips


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Sun May 18, 2014, 09:24 PM
(#8)
adikumar2010's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,094
Equity's will change, as I am most likely to get called by original raiser. So here is the new equity vs his range:



I dont know who will call me, how do I decide equity of 2nd player as we are 3 players. If we were two then equity of original raiser will improve. So I am deciding as per two players.

A = 60% (My equity)
B = 40% (UTG player's equity)

How will I know much % of the time they will call or fold? I just assumed some figure.

X = 60% (I am assuming they would fold 60% of the time, don't know if it's correct)
Y = 40% (I am assuming they would call 40% of the time, don't know if it's correct)

EV = (3840 X 60%) + [(14808 X 40% X 60%) - (12768 X 40% X 40%)]
= 2304 + (3553.92 - 2042.88)
= 2304 + 1511.04
Therefore EV = 3815.04

You talk like a Mathematican, before poker where you a professor in harvard university?

Thank you for explaining nicely sir , you remind me of my maths home tutor when I was in 10th grade

So where do we go from here ?

* My assumption could be wrong, so tell me how do I guess how many times do they call and do they fold if I shove there.

is hungry meow..want's some milk.

Last edited by adikumar2010; Sun May 18, 2014 at 09:32 PM..
 
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Mon May 19, 2014, 10:15 AM
(#9)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
(Head Trainer)
That's the funny thing about the math, you've probably heard the saying the math doesn't lie, which is true, but in an analysis like this A/B/X/Y are subjective depending on our best guesses of their folding/calling frequencies and their call off range vs. our hand. 10 of us could be given this problem and get 10 different answers... but as long as we're not wildly differing in our view of the objective components, the answers should be close enough.

Regarding the 3rd player, you could go through the same exact process factoring him in... and account in the equation for all four possible outcomes folding, P1 calling, P2 calling, and both calling. Just make sure the sum of all events adds up to 100%. It's a nice exercise to be thorough. But it's ok to simplify the work in this case imo, and estimate it for the most likely outcome of P2 simply folding. He has basically the same stack as us, if he was willing to put it all at risk I would assume it would already be in the middle before we acted. If I'm right, then although there's technically four outcome components (X, Y, Z, Q lets call them), Z and Q will happen such a small % of the time that their over all impact on our chip EV will be very small, and the vast majority of it is ruled by X and Y. So simplify it and just treat Z/Q as zero is ok as an approximation (imo, if one doesn't agree then they absolutely should include them).

So where you go from there is to take your chip EV gain of roughly 6bb by shoving and see how this increases your prize pool pay out, then make the decision on whether that's worth a 16% chance of busting our 3.5 buy in profit.

No math professor, never been to Harvard, and the cat is old, she doesn't stomach milk anymore.


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Mon May 19, 2014, 12:24 PM
(#10)
adikumar2010's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,094
Man!! Thats some serious stuff . I am astonished with all these equations . Mind boggling. Can you please tell me in one sentence if this is a shove spot or fold plz sir!!
 
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Mon May 19, 2014, 12:52 PM
(#11)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
In a regular pay structure mtt where our goal is to win the event, I think this spot is a shove, albeit close given the position of the opener. This isn't a tournament we're trying to win however, we just have to survive 14 more minutes, so my guess is that it's probably a fold, the risk of blowing off 4.5 buy ins this close to the end probably outweighs the potential gain in the math above which is on balance maybe 1 more buy in of equity at best?
How about in 1 quote?


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