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25NL ZOOM, AKo River Bluff

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25NL ZOOM, AKo River Bluff - Sun May 18, 2014, 05:34 AM
(#1)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Villain: 36/29/1.5 - 14 hands

Small sample but looks like this player will shape up to be a SLAG type player.

Time to fight back. Smart play?

 
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Sun May 18, 2014, 11:55 AM
(#2)
Paddy Gar's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 439
Hey dirt!

I see a few problems with this spot.

Firstly what's your range when you get to the river here? Don't see you having overpairs given the action, if you're shoving the nut flush it's because this guy can call with 7x, worse flushes. Don't know how many 7x he has when he calls oop. Not enough of a sample anyways to try and define his range. Otherwise if you are shoving the nut flush what can you get value from? KQhh? Bit thin to be shoving imo. While he has loose preflop stats that doesn't tell us anything about how he reacts to 3bets/ how wide he defends.

Therefore if you're not perceived to be shoving overpairs, or even weaker flushes (if you even have any in this spot), you're value range is really narrow otr.

The villain has possibly all combinations of sets in his range, and possibly more flushes. We don't really have any sets unless you would 3bet this particular villain with 1010/99. Having the blocker for the nut flush is nice but on a paired board it does change things greatly.

We can also check back any flush draws we have ott, so Villain shouldn't be mindlessly bluffing the river here.

Last edited by Paddy Gar; Sun May 18, 2014 at 12:28 PM..
 
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Mon May 19, 2014, 02:19 AM
(#3)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
@ Paddy, yes weird spot. However, your thinking in regards of the villains range is the range that I'm wanting to represent. I felt that once he makes this LARGE river bet and I come over the top. He can't really call with flushes due to the board being paired. He can only call with full houses. At least that was my thought process at the time.
 
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Mon May 19, 2014, 02:23 AM
(#4)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
I'm not sure this is the best spot for making an expensive bluff. You only have 14 hands on the villain which isn't enough to base a bluff on imo unless you have seen his cards and have proof of what he is capable of, or at least know more about his postflop tendancies. His line looks strong imo.

We can ask ourself "will better hands fold, or will worse hands call"? You are beating or splitting all his bluff range, but none of these hands are likely to call your river raise. So, no worse hands are calling. Will better hands ever fold? I don't expect flushes to fold. We might get overpairs and sets to fold some of the time, but it is important to note that we need our bluff to work more than 50% of the time here to be profitable. I don't think that is the case here.

A better option may be to call the river bet. You need to win the showdown about 30% of the time for this to be profitable. 30% is better than the 50% with shoving. If you think this villain is bluffing with two overcards, then calling will be best. This is especially true when you consider that these bluff hands will fold to your raise. You are winning the same amount if you call or raise. Yet, you are risking much more when raising.

Personally, I lean toward folding the river without more info on the vilain. But if you are going to continue, then calling looks to be the best option.
 
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Mon May 19, 2014, 02:44 AM
(#5)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roland GTX View Post
I don't expect flushes to fold. We might get overpairs and sets to fold some of the time
huh? It's a paired board... and a flush came in OTR. Sets will fold but flushes wont?

Last edited by dirt eh; Mon May 19, 2014 at 02:47 AM..
 
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Mon May 19, 2014, 03:11 AM
(#6)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
Quote:
Originally Posted by dirt eh View Post
huh? It's a paired board... and a flush came in OTR. Sets will fold but flushes wont?
There are few reasons why I don't expect to get folds too often here. Firstly, the villain only needs to be ahead about a third of the time to make calling your shove profitable. Secondly, if we assume he is a smart lag, he will often think you are capable of bluffing in this spot and thus call more lightly than a tighter player. Finally, if he is a thinking player, it seems unlikely that you have a full house since not many players would 3b pf with the middle pocket pairs that hit the board. Even with a balance 3b range, I for example might 3b JJ, QQ, KK, AA and 22, 33, 44, 55 but not the hands in the middle. These middle pairs do fit better with his 3b calling range.

Also, if he is a complete fish, he would be more likely to call with overpairs sets etc because he can't find the fold button.

I may be off the mark here, but I still think we are getting looked up here too often to make jamming profitable.
 
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Mon May 19, 2014, 02:00 PM
(#7)
Paddy Gar's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 439
I don't think villain would expect you to 3bet a virtual unknown with 1010/99, it's just a standard flat on the button.

We could b/b/jam here repping aces/kings/nut flush. Folds out floats ott, jj/88/QQ.

Villain will presumably jam flush draws ott/fold, and also jam value hands given he's oop. He might donk river with them, either way I don't think he'll check 3streets here with a boat. I'd def barrell river as it's a scare card for his range for getting there, and he should fold a lot better.

This is assuming villain is a reg/4tabling, some kind of info. I wouldn't do this if i thought villain was recreational.

My point here is it's better to try and pull off the bluff if we have a believable line. I think any competent player will fold river often if we three barrell ,everything except boats and flushes. We block flush draw combos too. Which means he has less value combos he can call with. As long as you take the same line with aces/kings and the nut flush it's a pretty good hand to play this way for balance.

So my research says anyways, of course it could also be complete spew
 

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