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100nl - Tricky spot OTR in 3b pot

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100nl - Tricky spot OTR in 3b pot - Sun May 18, 2014, 10:38 PM
(#1)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Poker Stars $100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2458967
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: $160.50 - VPIP: 24, PFR: 20, 3B: 11, F3B: 73, RFI BTN: 45, AF: 3.2, WWSF: 37, Hands: 861
Hero (SB): $132.26
BB: $278.86 - VPIP: 40, PFR: 40, 3B: 0, AF: 3, Hands: 1
UTG: $100.00
MP: $113.08
CO: $100.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is SB with 9 T
3 folds, BTN raises to $2.00, Hero raises to $8.00, 1 fold, BTN calls $6.00

Flop: ($16.22) 8 7 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $9.78, BTN calls $9.78

Turn: ($35.78) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN Bets $22.68, Hero calls $22.68

River: ($81.14) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $120.04

I tend to have a 3b or fold strategy in this situation so this hand is pretty standard for me vs a button steal. Especially given he has a higher than average f3b over a decentish sample.

Flop I think is a standard cbet with an open ender and 2 overs. I could check/call but I think playing with the initiative is better.

Turn I think is a pretty clear check, and call when he bets.

River is kinda tricky. I think it's pretty close. I'll have a fair few two pairs and overpairs in my range here so I think this is pretty far down in my range and I can fold from a game theory perspective?

It might be ok to call this combo given we don't block hearts, but i'm not sure.

Last edited by birdayy; Sun May 18, 2014 at 10:40 PM..
 
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Mon May 19, 2014, 12:11 AM
(#2)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Interesting spot but I think that this is a fold. I think we would actually have an easier decision by betting the turn in order to narrow the villains range.

If we bet the turn: OPs will still only call. Sets and 6x will most likely raise. I also think sets would raise OTF considering the board texture.

If we check the turn: we have to worry about floats as well as everything that beats us.

Now looking back at the hand. Not sure if overpairs are jamming this river. I would expect them to bet for value or even check back on this board texture, and as far as fds I think most would check back on this turn.

I don't see very many villains floating and then firing turn and river on a stone cold bluff. Usually they will float, fire and then check back OTR.

I would range villain to have some sort of straight here. JT of hearts fits nicely in this spot. Turn bet is really big for a float!
 
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Tue May 20, 2014, 06:16 PM
(#3)
PSO-xflixx's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,119
(Live Trainer)
Preflop is kind of indifferent between 3b and call, I like this one to be in my calling range more with deeper stacks and small open sizes, Esp given BU doesnt seem to be a tough postflop player judging by his W$WSF. Would suck to get 4b OOP with such a sweet hand though.

With the W$WSF in mind river looks like a fold to me. Problem is that villain can still be valueshoving a ton of 2 pair plus hands against your weak perceived range and missing turnbet. Some 6x raise flops, but still the river shoving range doesnt need to be polarized here.

On the other hand it might also be a reason for villain to bluff FDs more often, so I dont hate bluffcatching here but it heavily depends on stuff like timing/ dynamic for me in these spots.


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