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swings - Mon May 19, 2014, 01:29 AM
(#1)
OrdinaryGuy1's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 22
SilverStar
Playing 6 max turbo Sit n Go tournaments I managed to spin up to a $100 profit with games buying in at $7. I began to think that at last I had cracked it..... Silly me! Now I am down to - $80. What I want to know is can you have such stupid swings and still come out a winning player overall after many more games say 1000+ or is a swing as drastic as that an indicator that there is a lot of work to do. I still cannot get my head fully around variance and swings of fortune. Constructive advice and comments will be much appreciated.
 
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Mon May 19, 2014, 02:11 AM
(#2)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Are you already beating the smallest games? Is there a reason that you're playing the $7 games? What's your bankroll at? For SNGs I use a 50 buy-in rule. Some people use 100 buy-ins.

I would suggest beating the smallest stakes before you move up to the higher more difficult games.

ROI reliability based on number of games played.

500 - a very rough idea.
1,000 - a rough idea.
5,000 - a good idea.

Note that SnG and MTT are largely based on ROI. Not overall profit.
 
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Mon May 19, 2014, 08:15 AM
(#3)
casy151's Avatar
Since: Mar 2014
Posts: 5
Anyone who doesn't experience swings is making a mistake, as it means that they are playing at a limit that is beneath their skill level.

Embrace the swings.

Over time, you will realise that a) there is no 'I've cracked it!' moment - it's a slow and laborious grinding process, and b) 100 Hypers is a single morning's session for a lot of players. It is a fraction of a suitable sample, and the format of the game is such that variance will be huge in these tiny samples.

All the best in your journey!
 
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Tue May 20, 2014, 11:10 AM
(#4)
OrdinaryGuy1's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 22
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Thanks to both of you for those replies. Very helpful

It certainly is a grind and since posting I have managed to get back to +$10 which I am more than pleased with for now.

The figures for the number of games needed to judge the ROI is helpful as is the observation that there is no "I have cracked it moment"

Thanks again to both of you
 
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Further Frustrations - Getting Desperate now - Mon May 26, 2014, 08:10 AM
(#5)
OrdinaryGuy1's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 22
SilverStar
This post may end up being quite long for which I apologize but I am getting just a tad desperate. What I am about to describe has happened to me more times than I can remember over the 10+ years I have been playing online poker and I am very keen to try and find out what is causing it.
Recently (see above original post) I set aside 20 buy-ins to play $7 turbo six max sng my target was a ROI of 5% and then to move up the buy-ins.
After about 300 games I had reached my target of $300 and so began playing $15 turbo six max sng. My next target being $900 for $30 games and an increased roll of 30 buy-ins over the original 20 for the 7/15 levels.
And true to form this is where it all has fallen apart. I am now down $345 having wiped out my $300 bankroll and so on.

This keeps happening to me whether it is trying to move up the limits in sng or cash. And as I said above it has happened so many times now that it is getting very wearing!!!

What I want to try and establish more than anything is what is going on here. I have a few ideas and would welcome other peoples thoughts and experiences.

1 The level of play at the next level up is just too good for me (I dont really buy this as I have heard it said that there isnt much difference for example in cash games between 1/2 cent and 1/2 dollar in all reality and it only starts getting drastically more tough higher up)

2 When I move up I start experiencing what I call invincible syndrome - ie I am so high from getting to the point where I can move up that I start thinking that I am far better than I am and then end up being crushed at the new level, by trying to win too many pots and generally being overly aggressive fancy play syndrome etc.

3 It is just variance and I need to carry on it will turn around in the end

4 I was just damn lucky to get to where I could move up and it was a fluke

5 The standards are just so much higher now than when I first began and there are some excellent players at 1/2cent cash and $1 sng for example.

6 Online Poker is rigged - Ok I threw that one in for some light relief and to get the idiots going who believe that rubbish :-)

I am not sure what is happening and as you can probably tell it is really causing me megga frustration so any constructive and well meant comments will be very welcome

Thanks in advance

Mike
 
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Mon May 26, 2014, 05:39 PM
(#6)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,286
After reading your post twice, I've come to the conclusion that your real problem is Bankroll Management. 20 buy-ins is not a big enough cushion, especially for 6-max turbo games. Most players have to make a few adjustments when moving up, and also you're not as familiar with the players.

Bad runs of 20 games without a cash are not uncommon. A bigger bankroll would give you more time to adjust to the differences of a new level. Another alternative would be to spend some time watching and making notes on players at the higher levels before attempting to move up.

You might also consider moving back down when you have have reached your lower BR level. In the example you gave, you would move up to $15 games at $300, but move back down to to $7 games when your BR drops to $240. This helps prevent blowing the whole BR at the higher level.

Hope you find this helpful.

 
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Mon May 26, 2014, 11:43 PM
(#7)
OrdinaryGuy1's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 22
SilverStar
Thank you Joy7108. That is very helpful for two reasons. One I think you are right! and Two I posted this thread on another forum and got exactly the same reply from someone else.

I think that basically I am so keen / desperate / call it whatever to move up and make serious money from this game that I am rushing it.

I had not realised the significance of the hidden pressure that playing with a bankroll that is too short could have on my game.

Your two points about moving back down when the $15 was not going well and also the fact that 20 sessions that all lose in a row is not uncommon, were both also very helpful.

As I said in a post elsewhere. When I left school in the UK I joined my local Police Force and I immediately wanted to be Chief Constable without bothering with the "silly" ranks in between!!!! I am still a bit like that 35 years on lol.

Thanks again

Mike
 
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Tue May 27, 2014, 05:54 AM
(#8)
casy151's Avatar
Since: Mar 2014
Posts: 5
Mike,

There is a hidden downside to setting yourself these goals of 'achieve x, then move up to y'. It keeps your eyes firmly focused on the cashier. And if your eye is focused on the cashier, then you cannot fail to be results-orientated.

Simply put, being results-orientated is a massive hindrance to anyone hoping to improve their poker playing.
 
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Tue May 27, 2014, 11:50 AM
(#9)
SitootiS's Avatar
Since: Mar 2014
Posts: 28
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by casy151 View Post
Mike,

There is a hidden downside to setting yourself these goals of 'achieve x, then move up to y'. It keeps your eyes firmly focused on the cashier. And if your eye is focused on the cashier, then you cannot fail to be results-orientated.

Simply put, being results-orientated is a massive hindrance to anyone hoping to improve their poker playing.
Not my thread, but jumping on this as it has just given me the biggest eye-opener of recent...

I won a MTT last night, 0.11c, 4300 runners. Normally i don't play such micro stakes, i'll take occasional weekend punts at 1-5dollar tournies, it just so happened i was bored last night and fancied playing poker. Because the buy in was so low, i wasn't focused on the money up top or anything, i was just playing each hand as it came and enjoying the game, whereas in other tournies i'm constantly hitting that lobby button to see how close i am to the bubble, instead of just "playing"...

That's some solid advice there i must say, i will be opting to just enjoy the game, play poker and not be so results orientated from now forward, hopefully i can take down a slightly larger buy-in MTT in the not so distance future! :-)
 
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Thu May 29, 2014, 04:45 AM
(#10)
casy151's Avatar
Since: Mar 2014
Posts: 5
That's great news, Sitootis. While there is obvious value in keeping your eye on the lobby during a tournament to take advantage of players changing strategy due to the money jumps (the ladder principle), if you find your play deteriorating because of this then obviously you're in trouble.

The more we obsess over our cashier, the more we hinder our own progress.

Best of luck to you both,

Christy
 
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Fri May 30, 2014, 02:04 AM
(#11)
OrdinaryGuy1's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 22
SilverStar
I am completely and utterly results obsessed!!! never mind orientated and the biggest eye opener for me was learning through these replies just how bad for my game that is. Thanks for that priceless info. Will work on not being quite so obsessed but with a diagnosis of OCD that will be quite a challenge lol

Mike
 

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