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5nl FR Zoom - TT

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5nl FR Zoom - TT - Mon May 19, 2014, 08:48 AM
(#1)
pullin1988's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 717
Hi guys,

Please could you analyse this hand below.

My question is: How should I proceed if called, if the Turn doesn't complete the Flush and there are no overcards to my hand?

The reason why ask this, is because I have become a bit spewy lately, Calling down with say middle pair pr TPMK, when I think I could be ahead, and then I get owned- rightly so.

I think I still overvalue certain hands.

Villain stats: 39 hands VPIP/PFR/Ag 23/15/1 very small sample

Preflop I play this hand as standard, and get called by the BTN.

So thinking pocket pairs, suited connectots, all broadways, Arag at this point.

The flop comes K62. Now on this flop I think "can't really be called by worse, apart from flush draws, and I didn't want to give a free card". Basically I bet hoping to take down the pot there and then, since villain might have a lot of missed hands in his range, also because of my position, and I believed that a lot of turn cards that wouldn't have helped the situation either if I check e.g. Aces (4), Jacks (4), Queens (4), Kings (3) any diamond (11) as I am representing AK, AQ type hands when betting the flop. If I cbet the flop and I am called, then there might be the possiblity that these cards will be a scare card for him.


Do you guys think that was right?

When considering scare turn cards do we add the lot, or are we suppose to take into consideration if villain is holding one? For example, on this flop, if we are scared of another king coming, do we count 3 (Not lncluding villain holding it, or count 2 (including villian holding one)?

If the turn doesn't complete the flush and our hand doesn't not change, do you think it's right that I should be giving up?

If the turn does complete the flush, you guys Xing down?





Cheers,

Matt

Last edited by pullin1988; Mon May 19, 2014 at 11:19 AM..
 
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Mon May 19, 2014, 12:45 PM
(#2)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,355
In this spot I usually bet 99 or worse to pick up dead money while protecting my hand, but I always check JJ/QQ, since they aren't quite as vulnerable, and can get value from worse by check-calling, or betting on later streets if the flop is checked through.
TT is right on the cusp for me, so betting and checking both have merit. Since this particular flop doesn't have any monster draws (except for 54dd) and villain hardly ever has a 6 or a 2, I'd usually check.
A typical player won't have all that many kings in his pre-flop calling range either, so there's only a small chance you're beat. By checking, you keep the pot size under control while OOP, you can induce action from worse hands, and you'll pick up information based on villain's actions and sizing.
I really don't want to fire multiple streets as a "bluff", when this hand actually has some showdown value, so I think checking is best.
Basic plan is to check-call flop, and check-fold turn if villain barrels on a bad card for your hand. It's basically just the same way I'd play KK on A62.
What often happens when I check here is that a villain feels compelled to stab with 77 or 98s in the wrong suit. I naturally call and then the turn goes check-check. Depending on the board texture, I either bet the river for thin value, or check and show it down ftw. If you start with a bet, then villain often folds 77 (and random hands that would have bluffed), so you miss out on that thin value.


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Tue May 20, 2014, 01:31 PM
(#3)
braveslice's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 568
Imo, against tag this should be default X/C. Yes, betting is EV+, so it's not really a mistake however checking with skill to do so is more profitable because he will bet with many hands when checked and fold with anything he missed.
If he is looser, then bet for value is ok and these players are very widely seen.
There is no need to think flush draws on the flop against tag firstly, because when you are beat it’s mostly a set against a tag.

Last edited by braveslice; Tue May 20, 2014 at 01:38 PM..
 
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Tue May 20, 2014, 02:16 PM
(#4)
pullin1988's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 717
Cheers Braveslice,

One thing that I am not sure about is why not think of Flush Draws? What situation would you consider a TAG to play Flush Draws?

Thanks for the advice.

Matt
 
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Tue May 20, 2014, 02:56 PM
(#5)
braveslice's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 568
I said to think first flush draws. Secondly I’m NL5 as you are, so my opinion should not be valued too high. Arty’s skill on this matter surely is much higher; his blog is awesome to my level.

About flush draws, even the loosest player only has 12% flush draws, this is something I do remember somehow (hopefully right), tighter the player less draws he has.

Tag can play flush draws, but the chance for him hitting is quite small, the chance him to make steal is much higher though.

You should consider TAG with flush when to money pours in (or when ever the board is very coordinated -> flush + str draws), but in this case it is irrelevant as you only have the second pair.

Small hand -> small pot is good rule to remember always.

Last edited by braveslice; Tue May 20, 2014 at 03:02 PM..
 
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Tue May 20, 2014, 04:30 PM
(#6)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,355
Quote:
Originally Posted by pullin1988 View Post
One thing that I am not sure about is why not think of Flush Draws? What situation would you consider a TAG to play Flush Draws?
As Braveslice says, the villain will be set-mining pretty often. But let's suppose he calls pre-flop with all pairs JJ-22, all suited aces, all suited Broadways, all suited connectors down to 54s, plus AQo.

His range pre-flop is JJ-22,AQs-A2s,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,AQo, which is 164 combos or 12.5% of all hands. You don't generally make money if you cold-call pre-flop that often, but lots of villains will call this loosely at nanostakes.

Now let's put this range and your hand into Equilab or Flopzilla.
Since you hold , that removes some Broadway combos from villain's range. He now has 149 combos (12%).

Now we see a flop of

With card removal, this leaves villain with 137 combos. Even though he plays every suited ace, all suited Broadways, and SCs down to 54s, he only has a flush draw on this board with 19 combos. 19 out of 137 is just under 14%.
How else does he hit this board? Well, Equilab tells me he only has top pair just 5.8% of the time. Since KK isn't usually in his flatting range pre-flop, he only has 6 combos that made sets. 6 combos is just 4% of his range. (Note: against a nitty set-miner, sets are much more likely than flush draws, since nitty set-miners usually have pocket pairs, not suited connectors).

There are no OESDs on this board, and the bulk of villain's range is made up of ace high (all those suited aces), underpairs, Broadways that missed, and SCs in the wrong suit. (After all, there are 4 suits in a deck. Only a quarter of them can flop a flush draw on this board).
Your fold equity is therefore very high on this board, because villain's range largely missed it completely. This means your c-bet will take it down often, but I think there's more value in checking to induce action from worse.

Evaluating your equity, we find TT has around 69% against a 12% cold-caller on this flop. You're pretty much way ahead (of underpairs, undercards, ace high, flush draws), or way behind (a few combos of Kx, JJ, sets).

Since villain's range is overly weak and can't often call, it's best to check in order to let him bluff. There just aren't enough "call-worthy" hands in his range for you to be value-betting on multiple streets. If you bet and get called, then all that happened is you folded out the worse hands and kept the ones with equity around, which will make turn and river play much tougher.
Another problem with betting is that a villain can raise with his flush draws. It's a disaster if you bet-fold the best hand to villain's semi-bluff. It's far better, imo, when you're OOP, to check-call his bluffs when there's a pretty good chance you're ahead.


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Last edited by ArtySmokesPS; Tue May 20, 2014 at 04:33 PM..
 
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Tue May 20, 2014, 05:28 PM
(#7)
pullin1988's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 717
Cheers guy for the advice.

So what about if I had TPTK? I guessing it will be a check since it will be even more
less likely that villain will have a king and with all the other hands that missed. Now I don't know if I have a false memory, but I believe that I have checked these flops in the past (TPTK) and have been told to bet for value. It seems at the moment I really am struggling what the right situations are, because it always seems that I do the complete opposite.

Now what happens if villain raises my flop bet with TPTK, and as you put it I could be bet/folding the best hand.

Back to the drawing board for me - I think.

Cheers,

Matt
 
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Wed May 21, 2014, 05:54 PM
(#8)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,355
TPTK is strong enough to value-bet for 3 streets, so it's OK to bet that. Any worse made hands (except for smallest pairs which you should turn into bluffs) probably work better as checks. (I check-call KQ/KJ on this board, for example, in order to protect my checking range, and not turn hands like TT face up).
At 2NL/5NL, you can make an exploitable bet-fold of TPTK to a raise, as villains don't raise flush draws very often. At higher stakes, TPTK would usually be a bet-call, because it beats many semi-bluffs, so it should be part of your continuance range.


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