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Where Did I Go Wrong?

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Where Did I Go Wrong? - Thu May 29, 2014, 05:35 AM
(#1)
FourOfAnAce's Avatar
Since: May 2014
Posts: 14
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I had a King Spade and Jack Club; on the flop, I got a 10, A, 7 which almost leads to a straight which I only needed a Queen to sweep.

Did I put too much thought into his all-in bet?
 
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Thu May 29, 2014, 09:40 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
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Hi FourOfAnAce!

What type of tourney is this from? Different tourney types have different strategies and to get the best answer, we need to know not only the tourney type, but any reads that you have on the opps (how they're playing, etc). Please always include this info with every hand.

In almost every case, KJo is way too light of a hand to be opening from UTG, so I need to muck it preflop (especially if this is a league game). Also, when I'm the first one to open a pot, I do not want to limp. If my hand is not worth making a standard raise with, it's too weak and needs to be mucked.

When a gutshot is flopped, I cannot call the 120 bet. I need to call 120 into a pot that will be 440 (27.3%). I have 4 outs and from the rule of 4 and 2, each out is worth 2% to the turn.. so my hand is worth 8%. Since the pot equity is higher than my hand equity, I need to fold. If I would call, I expect to LOSE 19.3% of my chips on average each and every time. I want to be making plays where I expect to gain chips, not one where I expect to lose them.

The key to this hand... muck marginal hands preflop when out of position.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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Fri May 30, 2014, 06:53 AM
(#3)
dduvshani's Avatar
Since: May 2014
Posts: 175
How do u calculate Pot equity ?
 
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Fri May 30, 2014, 10:38 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dduvshani View Post
How do u calculate Pot equity ?
[chips that I have to put into the pot to call] divided by [size of pot after my chips go in]

John (JWK24)


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Sat May 31, 2014, 07:12 AM
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etchos's Avatar
Since: Sep 2013
Posts: 38
The principle reason i think you have posted this hand is because the Q came on the river. Therefore your thought processes are telling you that you were wrong to fold as you would have won the hand. Results orientated thinking like this will not help your poker.

If you apply the math JWK24 has outlined to this this situation and repeat it over 100 repeat instances then the following becomes apparent.

Looking at the turn decision

you are being asked to call 1180 to win 2180 (total money in the pot at the time). You have 4 outs so you will win this approximately 8% of the time.

so over a 100 hand sample you will lose your call 100 times (100 x 1180 = 118000) and win money in the middle 8 times (8x2180 = 19620). Thats a net loss of 98380 chips or (983 chips per hand on average)

The fold is therefore correct. calling is terible. The fact you would have made your straight is completely irrelevant as it would happen so infrequently that over the long term you would still be down.

It may also be worth noting that this is an optimistic assessment. The Qc may not actually be an out for you as someone could be drawing to a flush. so that reduces your equity to 6%.
 
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Sat May 31, 2014, 07:44 AM
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superthight's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FourOfAnAce View Post


I had a King Spade and Jack Club; on the flop, I got a 10, A, 7 which almost leads to a straight which I only needed a Queen to sweep.

Did I put too much thought into his all-in bet?
no its not u can see the flop on yur kjoff it cannot develop an outs on board with a1077 .must think if u continue play.example 1 u got 3players.2nd.yur beaten with any sets.a flush .trips.or ace high.those nuts can beat yur st,draw even if u hit the queen.its a big gamble and yur not small stock.dont take the risk.its a good fold for me.


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