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[10NL Zoom] TPTK paired board facing CRAI OTR

[10NL Zoom] TPTK paired board facing CRAI OTR - Fri May 30, 2014, 11:31 AM
grind4f00d's Avatar
Since: May 2014
Posts: 29
Fri May 30, 2014, 11:34 AM
grind4f00d's Avatar
Since: May 2014
Posts: 29
BTN: 105.8 BB (VPIP: 21.43, PFR: 21.43, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)
SB: 120.5 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 23.53, PFR: 14.71, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 36)
Hero (UTG): 100 BB
MP: 109.5 BB (VPIP: 15.51, PFR: 13.11, 3Bet Preflop: 4.76, Hands: 252)
CO: 172.5 BB (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)

I don't think he was bluffing there, QQ & 88, maybe 44 or 6s7s binking

can't think of any hands that I beat so my hand is just a bluffcatcher
Fri May 30, 2014, 02:32 PM
Paddy Gar's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 439
Interesting spot grind!

The turn check doesnt make a whole lot of sense for him. If he has kings or aces he should be betting to protect due to the texture of the flop.

I think check calling is probably best otr, if he has bluffs here (which he definitely can), we can get blown off our hand by betting the river. Villain has 1 combo of queens basically in his range for value here. Versus an unknown it's just a really bad play to be 3betting an utg open w/88/44/ even queens.

Folding is fine against unknown, we don't block his bluffs though, so I think an argument could be made for b/calling here. I just don't think villains take this line with a lot that beats us. Guess you have to respect a guy without info, and take a note on the line he took.
Fri May 30, 2014, 02:36 PM
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
I think that this is a Bet/Fold spot. Who knows. I've been wrong in my hand analysis lately.

Let's look at hands that a villain would 3B preflop, cbet, x the turn and the raise river with...

QQ, maybe 88, 55 and 44. I think that 88, 55, and 44 are more likely to just CC preflop but anything can happen in ZOOM. Also with the sample that you have... being only 14 hands, there is something that we see... Villain doesn't have a CC range yet. 21.43/21.43, so lets take 1/4 of that range and assign a 3bet range. 5.36 (and I think this is being generous @ 10NL): 88+,ATs+,KQs,AKo

When I get into these situations. I always think... what would I do here if I was the villains and I held JJ, TT, 99, KQ, AQ even... I wouldn't raise river... and If I had a big Q I wouldn't check the turn.
Sun Jun 01, 2014, 06:34 PM
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
Hi grind,

I think this looks like a great spot to bet/fold the river. I can't imagine what hands would bluff in this manner than wouldn't have simply fired a turn barrel. While something weird may be going on sometimes, it's not likely often enough to make calling his shove profitable.

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