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25NL ZOOM, Turn Stab

25NL ZOOM, Turn Stab - Mon Jun 02, 2014, 12:03 PM
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
I just wanted to find out if I should be stabbing here with 44 OTT? After the initial 3-bettor misses there opportunity to cbet and the cold-caller checks twice...
Should we be stabbing at this pot with our entire range?
Are these stabs going to be +EV or -EV?


CO(61): 16/15/0.7 3B: 10.7 on 28 samples
BB(37): 14/16/3.0 3B: 0.0 on 19 samples

Mon Jun 02, 2014, 12:40 PM
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
I'd be giving up once I don't hit a set on that board.

Hands in our range that kind of make sense to bet on the turn are AT/AQ but we possibly fold some combos of those to the 3bet, namely the offsuited varieties, depending on how our range is perceived we might even be folding ATs pre. I've deleted HEM from my PC so I can't remember what your range is made up of on the sample I have.

I'm guessing he had AKo/AKs/AJs here with an outside chance of KJs/KJo.
Mon Jun 02, 2014, 01:56 PM
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Pre flop, re-raise and a caller I fold (of course, depending on the notes I have) If I call pre, it's a check fold to any bets. But I'm not going to spew more money.

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Tue Jun 03, 2014, 03:30 AM
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
Preflop you are oop and have a weak hand. I would normally fold, but wit the deep stacked bb calling you do have odds to set mine. If you are going to set mine in this spot though, we need to stick to the plan and fold when we don't flop a set. Continuing on missed flops is expensive. When set mining we need to keep our investment to a minimum in order to be profitable overall.

This flop is pretty wet offering flush and straight draws. It seems unlikely that both opponents will fold to a turn bet. Furthermore, both players are pretty tight preflop and will have fairly strong ranges.

Note: 4betting preflop would look extremely strong and will take the hand down quite often. However, 44 is too weak to 4b light with and if we 4b to $8 or $9 V6 may decide to move all in. Moreover, I don't have all the stats on these villains or your table image. No, I don't think 4b is a good idea either.
Tue Jun 03, 2014, 03:53 AM
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Pre is whatever.

We have a lot better hands to bet on this turn. I dislike betting because we really don't achieve anything.

That being said, i think if you do decide to bet the turn, we should be bluffing the river. They've indicated they have a weak range, we have a blocker to a straight and pretty much no SDV.
Tue Jun 03, 2014, 09:53 AM
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
Originally Posted by dirt eh View Post
Should we be stabbing at this pot with our entire range?
No, stabbing with 100% of your range is certainly bad.

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Sat Jun 07, 2014, 08:16 AM
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
Hey DE, don't think I saw you in class on Wednesday? It covered when to give up on certain pocket pairs, even though we think they might be ahead for the moment

Post-flop, this is a bit like the kind of spots where I've been taking a stab with hands as well, with pocket pairs - and there were others in class that wanted to call or bet at times where ... it wound up making a lot of sense to just stick to the plan to hopefully flop big. So it seems like it might be pretty common for lots of us to maybe start with one plan ... and then be tempted to try and 'value bluff' the turn?

Hope I understood what was covered in class by the end of it - it sounded like, maybe it might be *okay* to take a stab at the turn with JJ or Ad Kd, but not 44-99? With Ad Kd being the better hand to have, since it has all those outs to improve (like, as many as ... 15?) if behind ... and I guess the benefit of betting with JJ is that if the villain was 3-betting light with AT and calls, it's ahead - also it blocks straight draws, etc.

Guess with the 44, there was still a chance it could get to showdown and still sometimes be good, since the c/o was so passive ...

Does everybody like a bet on the turn more with JJ or Ad Kd? Hope those'd be okay ...

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