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25NL, Rivered TTP facing min XR

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25NL, Rivered TTP facing min XR - Mon Jun 02, 2014, 01:28 PM
(#1)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
I'm not super happy about my turn play, but I think just calling the min turn bet is too weak? What's the plan OTR? 4.78:1 odds

Please comment on the whole hand. Thanks.

BTN(Unknown)
BB (11): 36/18/3.0

 
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Tue Jun 03, 2014, 03:00 AM
(#2)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
Hi dirt!

Opening with QJs is fine as well as checking the low flop against two players. Both are unlikely to fold and any pocket pair, Ax or drawing hand will continue while you don't have that much room for improvement.

I like raising the turn as you did. The villain is short stacked which normally indicates a weak player. The min-bet is a bit polarizing. Sometimes it is the nuts, but imo it more often is a weak hand trying to see the next card cheaply. We don't want to let both players see the river cheaply with so many draws possible. Raising helps to isolate the bb who you have position on and whose range you are ahead of.

Betting the river with two pair looks good. The small raise is unexpected though. What range can we put the villain on? If he flopped a straight or set, he might check the flop since he is oop. I would expect him to 3b the turn though after inducing a raise from you, especially with the flush draws. You are holding blockers to JJ and QQ sets. Also, it seems likely that these hands would have raised preflop or on the flop. This leaves us with AJ, AQ, KJ, KQ, some random two pair hands as well as missed draws that can only win the pot by getting you to fold. Moreover, the villain may have put you on a flush draw and believe that his river raise is for value. He may be holding or and hoping to make a straight flush, but you are beating most of his range.

You only need to win the hand about 22% of the time to make calling profitable. Against this apparently weak villain and his strange line, I think calling will be profitable. Had we known more about him I may even consider 3b all in. This is a great hand to gain notes on the villain if you saw the showdown.
 
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Tue Jun 03, 2014, 03:51 AM
(#3)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Yup not much else to do but let out a little sigh and call.

Last edited by birdayy; Tue Jun 03, 2014 at 11:45 AM..
 
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Tue Jun 03, 2014, 11:33 AM
(#4)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Yes, I called. Villain had a set of 3s.
 

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