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AQo on the bubble in $11 Deep Stacks

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AQo on the bubble in $11 Deep Stacks - Mon Jun 09, 2014, 10:33 PM
(#1)
CanuckMonkey's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 185
I realized recently that I was making some bad ICM decisions on the bubble, so I'm taking a closer look at some key bubble hands to see what I can learn. This hand is from 5 hours into an $11 Deep Stacks tourney with a slow structure (30-minute levels). At the start of this hand, 48 players remain; 45 get paid.



There are 8 players at the table and I am on the button with a 52bb stack and get dealt AQo. Action folds to me so I make a standard 2.5bb raise, hoping to steal blinds but quite willing to see a flop. The SB (who covers me with a 73bb stack) 3-bets to 7bb and the BB folds. Unfortunately, I had moved to this table recently and only had 24 hands of data on the villain; in that small sample he played 13/9/9 and I never saw any attempts to steal his blinds.

Question 1: What should I do here, from an ICM perspective?

My action: Since I don't have a made hand but I'll have position post-flop, I flat call the raise. The flop comes ATT which looks pretty good to me; the only hands that beat me are AA, AK, and TX. Villain leads out for less than half the pot.

Question 2: Again from an ICM pespective, what is the best play here?

My action: I opted to make a raise for about a third of the pot, leaving me with more than half the pot behind if the villain called. Villain calls, and the turn is a third ten. Villain checks to me.
Question 3: What is the best play here? (Do I need to mention the ICM perspective again?)

I stopped the replayer here so as not to influence any responses, but I would like to point out that now, only AA or TX beat me, both of which are unlikely given the known cards. (I would of course be splitting with any other AX hand that isn't AT.)

Thanks for any feedback!

Cheers,

CanuckMonkey


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Mon Jun 09, 2014, 10:57 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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Hi CanuckMonkey!

ICM is more for final tables. When I get 3-bet, I typically don't like calling 3-bets OOP with AQ, so I'm mucking to the 3-bet.

John (JWK24)


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Tue Jun 10, 2014, 12:10 PM
(#3)
CanuckMonkey's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 185
Thanks John! Would this be considered OOP, though? I was the button and the 3-bet came from the small blind.


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Tue Jun 10, 2014, 12:12 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
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Sorry about that.. I thought you were in the SB... oops.

I still don't like calling 3-bets with AQ.. too many of the times, I'm dominated or outkicked if the opp is a decent player.

John (JWK24)


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Tue Jun 10, 2014, 01:22 PM
(#5)
Ready2SmashU's Avatar
Since: Mar 2014
Posts: 10
Hi CanuckMonkey!

I agree whit your call as you are in position the flop comes a bit ugly as in the range he will 3-bet you is have allot of T because you are on the button he can expect that you have marginal hand also so he can 3-bet you with AT KT any suited connected T JT T9. ( especially around the bubble as more experience players will start opening there ranges and trying to steal and re steal )

I think you have to make the raise pre a bit bigger this way you don't give them any margin to try to re steal from you and will give you more information if they call or 3-bet.

I personally think you had to call the c-bet on the flop i know it gives you more information by raising but in the same time any hand that beats you already will call and if he is calling whit intention of bluffing you are in really awkward spot whit massif pot and possibility to be the second best hand.

By hem checking on the turn make me more worried that he may have T as if he was trying to bluff you even whit A high he will probably ship it on the turn and put you in hard to call position as will cost your the tournament live.

But any way some time we need to deal whit what we have so probably what i will do after he checks on the turn i will ship it as the pot is already massive and my stack is so small that if i check and then on the river he go all in before me i cannot call.

So i will raise all in and hope he was bluffing. Because in situations like this where nobody have it the first who make the move will take the pot and in your case you are already committed and you have fold equity against A high and pair that makes semi bluffs because if he folds will still have some marginal stack.

Im not professional player just sharing my thoughts so if somebody think im wrong please leave a comment as i will learn allot hope this give you some ideas CanuckMonkey.
 
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Tue Jun 10, 2014, 01:28 PM
(#6)
95NiX's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 116
I think I have would have called pre-flop with AQ. At the bubble of a tournament some players are playing tighter, while others take advantage of this to raise lighter. Plus the fact that you are raising from late position it might seem to villain that your hand isn't really strong. Unfortunately we have almost no information about villain, so I think he is re-raising relatively light to steal the pot or he has a really strong hand.

On the flop villain bets less than half of the pot, which is a small bet considering the 3-bet he just made. I think if villain had AK he would have bet bigger or shoved after your re-raise. He decided to call your re-raise, which is for me an indication that he is not bluffing. At this point I think he might have an Ace with a lower kicker like AJ, A9. a 10 is also not impossible, considering the fact he might re-raise wider pre-flop. I think if villain had AA he would probably check the flop, hoping you would invest the chips in the pot.

The check on turn is a bit strange however. I think if villain had a hand like AJ he probably would have shoved there, because it is a splitplot against any Ace but A10. The re-raise on the flop by you however might be a sign for villain that you will fire another bet on the turn, but what is advantage of checking if villain has an ace? Only reason I think of is because he has a 10.

Nevertheless, with a board like that and the amount of chips invested, I would shove.


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Tue Jun 10, 2014, 01:35 PM
(#7)
95NiX's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 116
Oops ready2smashu was a little bit quicker with replying than me hehe, so some points I mentioned might be the same as he already said


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