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NL 16 River problem

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NL 16 River problem - Sun Jun 15, 2014, 02:00 AM
(#1)
rudar47's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 73
PokerStars - $0.16 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG+2: $15.48 (VPIP: 10.21, PFR: 8.12, 3Bet Preflop: 1.35, Hands: 388)
Hero (MP): $19.32
MP+1: $16.20 (VPIP: 21.55, PFR: 12.99, 3Bet Preflop: 3.03, Hands: 235)
CO: $16.41 (VPIP: 37.50, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
BTN: $13.12 (VPIP: 32.00, PFR: 24.00, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 50)
SB: $6.45 (VPIP: 5.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 20)
BB: $16.00 (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 9.52, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
UTG: $20.94 (VPIP: 40.21, PFR: 18.51, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 284)
UTG+1: $19.07 (VPIP: 14.03, PFR: 8.27, 3Bet Preflop: 2.78, Hands: 283)

SB posts SB $0.08, BB posts BB $0.16

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.24) Hero has A:diamond: A:heart:

UTG raises to $0.32, fold, UTG+2 calls $0.32, Hero raises to $1.28, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls $0.96, fold

Flop: ($3.12, 2 players) 3:diamond: 4:diamond: 8:diamond:
UTG checks, Hero bets $1.78, UTG calls $1.78

Turn: ($6.68, 2 players) A:spade:
UTG checks, Hero checks

River: ($6.68, 2 players) 2:heart:
UTG bets $3.68, Hero ???????

We have 3 options fold for me is not an option but what do i do raise or just call(his WSD is 32)? I think that guy can have so many two pair,sets and lot of non flush so maybe the best option is to 3b him to around 8$ and call a shove after? What do you think?
 
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Sun Jun 15, 2014, 02:12 AM
(#2)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Why check turn? I think we should just bet/bet/shove. He doesn't seem like a very good player, so he's much more likely to keep calling down with QdX or KdX than regs.

As played, on the river I think there is value in raise/folding vs a guy like this. I would make it ~$9 and fold if he shoves over. I don't expect him to have many 5x or flopped flushes in his range when he uses that sizing otr, and he will not be very likely to fold two pairs to a raise.
 
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Sun Jun 15, 2014, 07:03 AM
(#3)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi rudar47

My opinion on this is that with three diamonds on the flop I don't want to check back the turn with trips (IF we did not have the Ad in our hand)because I don't want to give a 1 diamond hand a free river. But given that we don't fear a free river card and the Ace OTT makes it less likely that the villain has an ace then I think your check back was an attempt to get them to call us lighter by the river? Not a bad plan imo, we could also decide to check back the flop for that matter but I really want to get more than 1 street of value here so we can bet flop, and also bet small OTT. As played, I think river should just be a call. There's nothing on the board that can call our raise that we beat since it's less likely they would have an Ace and we should have heard from worst sets earlier so by raising the river we force our opponent to call/raise us with better.
 
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Sun Jun 15, 2014, 07:56 AM
(#4)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
^ his stats suggest more 2pairs in his range than a traditional villain
 
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Sun Jun 15, 2014, 08:54 AM
(#5)
rudar47's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 73
Yes this was my plan for turn, good spot to give him a free card and if he has a flush i give myself a chance to improve
 
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Sun Jun 15, 2014, 11:58 AM
(#6)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Quote:
Originally Posted by birdayy View Post
^ his stats suggest more 2pairs in his range than a traditional villain
What 2pairs?
 
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Sun Jun 15, 2014, 10:00 PM
(#7)
rudar47's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 73
GEO what do you think if we raise him on the turn to around 9$ and he shove is it profitable to fold in this spot? In my opinion I have two option on the river one is to call his bet and second is to raise him and call a shove. what do you think?
 

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