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The great AK debate

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The great AK debate - Sun Dec 08, 2002, 03:00 AM
(#1)
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Sun Dec 08, 2002, 03:14 AM
(#2)
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all in baby!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
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Sun Dec 08, 2002, 03:27 AM
(#3)
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Sun Dec 08, 2002, 03:33 AM
(#4)
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90% of players don't even think about laying it down and that may be the beauty in this whole thing.

I watched this hand and I must say that it was very interesting. Your stack was short relative to the rest of the table, but you had multiple rounds of blinds left, soooooooo....there was really no need to panic just yet. That said, you had to make a move.

Let's look at this a little more closely. The first thing to look at is that the original raiser could have pretty much anything, but would most likely have Ax or a pocket pair of some kind. I don't think that there is any question that, if it were just the original raiser in the pot, that you would have to call because you would be 6 to 5 against a pocket pair of any sort besides AA or KK (KK still giving you a 30% shot) and you absolutely would have any Ax dominated.

The problem, as you well know, is with the caller. What could the caller have? Something like 44 is unlikely since they are either dominated by a higher PP or are in a coin flipping contest. I would say that anything below 99 would be a stretch unless they, themselves had AK or some other big ace.

Possible hands of the smooth caller:

Pairs

AA
KK
QQ
JJ
TT
99 (maybe a stretch)

Face Cards
AK (less likely because you hold it)
AQ (which you dominate)
AJ (AJ is a stretch)

I doubt that they call without a made hand or an Ace.

So, you are absolutely annihaleted by AA.
You are a big dog to KK
You are 6 to 5 to QQ, JJ, TT, and lower.
You chop with AK (but you are suited, if I recall, but that's not a big diff)
You dominate AQ
You dominate AJ

You have 0% chance of getting anybody to fold. So, you are a dog to most holdings, chop with one, and dominate maybe two.

I think that the problem with this is that most people are going to find it hard to believe that you have narrowed it to pps between TT and AA.
 
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Sun Dec 08, 2002, 04:22 AM
(#5)
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I agree totally with the way Hazy played this. I call if there is no other caller in the pot...when the solid player calls, I lay it down. My thought is the same as his...be the aggressor, not the caller.


'Goddess
 
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Sun Dec 08, 2002, 07:52 AM
(#6)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
AK against 2 Ax hands I rate as only about 6:5 fave, even though AK dominates each individual hand.

AK against Ax and QQ or lower is roughly a 3:2 dog.

AK against AA AND Ax or a smaller pair is a whipped puppy.

AK against KK and either Ax or an underpair is a big dog also.

AK against two underpairs is probably slighly worse than a 3:2 dog.

AK is even a slight dog to two hands holding of smaller connectors.

Are you sure about the blinds? According to the published structure (#7) they go from 500/2000/4000 to 1000/3000/6000. With a 45k stack the difference is just under 3 rounds to almost 5 rounds left. With less than 3 rounds I think moving in is the right play, with almost 5 rounds wait for a better shot even though you are getting about 2:1 odds.
 
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Sun Dec 08, 2002, 08:32 AM
(#7)
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I will bring this up for this discussion too. These thoughts were in people's heads, but not in this forum yet.

7 people left and it's a round 2 event. You need to finish 1st or 2nd to meet your "goal" in this tournament. 3rd through 7th does not change your bankroll, percentage, or qualification status.

So, A question I would ask myself is "Do I have a better chance of finishing 1st or 2nd by calling or raising or folding? (I guess callin and raising are the same thing here unless the short stack is real short and you could call for less than a third or so of your stack).

I don't know the stack sizes of the other players, but in this situation with a chance to triple up I would rock and roll [all-in(pays my money and takes my chance)].


If this were a "bankroll" tourney, or a B&M casino tourney I may act different depending on payout, etc.

I just try to remind myself in tourneys. "What is my goal? What am I trying to accomplish? What will this particular decision at this particular time do to me?

Shane aka Jeff

PS. Great topic for discussion. I would love to see more posts on the play of AK. It's a hand one sees a lot more frequently than AA or KK, a hand one almost allways gets involved in the pot with, and a hand one will probably make a BIG decision with at one time or another in a tournament.
 
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Sun Dec 08, 2002, 09:00 AM
(#8)
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I would have have done exactly what hazy did here. I call if no one else does, but fold to move up on the list in this situation. I dont know much, but there is my 2 cents.

torax
 
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Sun Dec 08, 2002, 09:09 AM
(#9)
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Deleted.
 
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Sun Dec 08, 2002, 10:26 AM
(#10)
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I'm going all in here Hazy.


Here's my logic.


1) The initial all in player likely does not have you beat. If he does, it is a PP. It could be the big two: KK or AA, but odds are strongly against. He's pushing in on any reasonable hand. AQ, A9s, KQ...

2) The caller does not have KK, nor AA. If he's got KK he's shoving all in to shut you out. Which he should have done with QQ, IMO. Ah, he could have AA, but... you start putting people on AA every hand, you should quit playing.

So he likely has AK, AQ, QQ, JJ, TT, 99.

Let's say one of the other players has PP less than QQ, the other hand you have dominated. Don't you want this?

Look at the amount in the pot already. You don't say how short the other player is, but the blinds are big, there is an ante. You have to be getting way over 2:1 pot odds on a coin toss hand.

You want to finish in the top 3 always (top 2 in this one), here is your best chance, IMO.

Randy
 
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Sun Dec 08, 2002, 10:36 AM
(#11)
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Where the difficulty comes in for me is that the fairly tight/predictable player just flatcalled. In the situation you describe, a re-raise to isolate the all-in player is required to prevent players with hands like Hazy's from coming in.

I'd have to put the flat caller on a medium PP (88 or 99) or big ace (probably AQ or AK).

IMO, 7 handed and late in the game, JJ or better needs to be re-raising from the cutoff. Especially when a shortstack raises all-in.

Peace, Starrs LSOGC - The James Gang
 
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Sun Dec 08, 2002, 10:43 AM
(#12)
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Sun Dec 08, 2002, 10:47 AM
(#13)
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Yes, the 3 way is interesting, but your reading skill makes this hand an easy fold! The other negative is the potential side pot with the cold caller. I bet Noodles will agree. Let's see.

If your stack was close to the same size as the opener's you might have an extremely slim +EV. (Not having to risk much all-in to the cold caller who is a big favorite (2-1) for the side pot.)

Assuming the pot odds were approximately 5-2 then your AK is a very marginal plus call according to Pokerstove with the range of hands mentioned for the caller and opener down to A6s. Opener is a 4-1 (18%) dog and caller is a clear favorite at 1-1(53%). Your hand is a 7-3 (29%) dog.

I say fold the AK in this situation, if you are not the short stack. If you are the short stack then call if you aren't a good reader of these opponents. Otherwise fold for the better opportunity with many more rounds of blinds left.

Den
 
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Sun Dec 08, 2002, 10:50 AM
(#14)
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But the more people in the pot, the better a drawing hand is due to pot odds.

RG
 
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Sun Dec 08, 2002, 10:54 AM
(#15)
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Maraden said:

Quote:
Yes, the 3 way is interesting, but your reading skill makes this hand an easy fold!....I bet Noodles will agree. Let's see.

I'll give you 100 to 1 he doesn't. :wink:


RG
 
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Sun Dec 08, 2002, 10:55 AM
(#16)
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Sun Dec 08, 2002, 11:37 AM
(#17)
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Getting all-in late with AK in a NL tourney is never bad, IF you are the one putting someone else to a decision. Calling a raiser with AK, to me, is way too risky. At best you are gonna be 2-1 if he had something like QJ, which is unlikely. Most likely with a better and caller in front of you, you are against a big pair, and A-K or A-Q. You may be completely dominated.

Many people late in NL like to go all in with small pairs, putting you in a coin toss. But if you are the one putting him at the decision, if he has any sense, he is gonna muck it.

You gotta lay it down against two opponents, even given the fact that you need to win the tourney. Tempting to try to triple up this late. What were the leaders at? Were the other small stacks trying frantically to double up to finish 1st or 2nd (as it appears they were)?

Great debate here, we need more of this.

Gojacketz
 
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Sun Dec 08, 2002, 12:19 PM
(#18)
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If you trust your good reads and have a handle on your situation lay it down. You have time to work your chips.


If its a wild crap shoot put all your chips in and hope for the best.
 
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Sun Dec 08, 2002, 12:23 PM
(#19)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Info from PSO Detail on the final 7 in the event:
Code:
Username   Placed    PPT  % Money   PSO % 
thehazyone     1   14.70   15.87%  71.14% 
dreams32097    2  103.64   21.63%  72.09% 
The Rose       3   -5.30   12.33%  65.04% 
HERBY BONES    4  -55.28    9.63%  66.17% 
apryllshowers  5  124.60   20.75%  73.40% 
bumblebeeru    6   96.64   19.06%  67.99% 
WDR            7   61.80   17.68%  65.63%
 
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Sun Dec 08, 2002, 12:32 PM
(#20)
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