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25nl 6max zoom- To bet or not to bet?

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25nl 6max zoom- To bet or not to bet? - Wed Jun 18, 2014, 05:03 AM
(#1)
Paddy Gar's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 439
S.Blind is a 1 tabler, no sample. Button is a reg, with 56% button steal over 330 hands, 33% wtsd 70% won at showdown through 10 samples.

Pre I'm not closing action but with the small 3bet and position on the recreational player I wanted to try and see a flop ip with sixes. As button has a decent steal stat I expect him to flat pretty much anything and if he 4bets I'm folding.

I lead the flop expecting the button to play pretty face up with the rec player in the pot. Was expecting the pot to go heads up to the turn but both flat.

Turn is an obvious value bet, and the button flats again. I think button has all combos of kq, j10ss , kx spades, qx spades, maybe ajss, a10ss.

So the question is what is the correct play against this range otr? If I jam will I get called from qx? The flop wasn't particularily draw heavy. Am I missing value if i don't? I thought that because villain will jam his queens for value and might bet any missed draws, it would be worth the risk to check. I thought by jamming I get snapped by kq, and some qx, but maybe not all?



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Wed Jun 18, 2014, 11:20 AM
(#2)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Definite shove for me
 
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Wed Jun 18, 2014, 11:36 AM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,499
(Head Trainer)
Hi Paddy,

I don't track with your ranging on the turn. For instance, all combos of KQ seems like it must be wrong... you are saying you think he would never raise KQ on the flop or turn. JsTs is saying he would fold all other JT combos to your turn bet?

Personally I would bet, I don't think he is going to both have enough busted draws (specifically JT since gut shots that didn't turn a spade draw should fold to your turn bet sizing) and bluff them to make checking better than betting. The real question for me is something you haven't considered, betting less than all in. I think if we shove, we get called by Qx so this really becomes a question of

1) Will a shove scare off hands like KJ/KT, but they will pay a smaller bet of say $9?

2) We know (almost) that Qx will pay a shove, but will they raise all in themselves if we bet less?

Shove might be a little better here, it's close though and probably doesn't matter much either way in terms of expectation.


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Wed Jun 18, 2014, 11:42 AM
(#4)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sandtrap777 View Post
Definite shove for me
Shove: POT SIZED BET.

Paddy, I would bet half the villains stack and call off if they come over the top. We sarted the hand with 100bb effectively so if villain has kk, qq, kq so be it.

I don't think that this villain ever has KQ here. At least they shouldn't, I think KQ raises OTT.
 
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Wed Jun 18, 2014, 12:15 PM
(#5)
Paddy Gar's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 439
Thanks all.

I thought at the time that villain might not raise kq ott because the recreational player is still in the pot. I have to stop deciding people will fold what i may fold ott, as in j10o. I would not call that sized bet on the turn, but I should be including that in villains range for sure.


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Wed Jun 18, 2014, 12:37 PM
(#6)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Quote:
Originally Posted by dirt eh View Post
Shove: POT SIZED BET.
Shove: ALL IN
 
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Wed Jun 18, 2014, 02:40 PM
(#7)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
I might be confusing myself here but maybe someone can clear this up, if we bet here we have to be good 50% of the time when we get called?
 
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Wed Jun 18, 2014, 02:46 PM
(#8)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,499
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mike2198 View Post
I might be confusing myself here but maybe someone can clear this up, if we bet here we have to be good 50% of the time when we get called?
Correct, >50%


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Wed Jun 18, 2014, 03:30 PM
(#9)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
@Trap... misread your comment... Still asleep! I thought you wrote Define Shove for me. LOL

Last edited by dirt eh; Wed Jun 18, 2014 at 05:10 PM..
 

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