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Is this fine play!

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Is this fine play! - Sun Jun 22, 2014, 03:38 PM
(#1)
adikumar2010's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,094
I thought he is donking with a draw or 2nd pair or top pair weak kicker and I can get them to fold. Even if they don't fold I have gut-shot and two overs. So not bad equity when called plus lot of fold equity if he folds his any pair.

It's Sunday storm and early stage of the game.



STATS :
 
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Sun Jun 22, 2014, 04:08 PM
(#2)
666bonez187's Avatar
Since: Oct 2012
Posts: 745
i was going to say fold before i saw the hand...

even if they have the flush draw at worst thats 9 outs for flush and 6 for hitting pairs

15 outs x 4 you are an underdog to their draw, lucky this time they had the q too so they had less outs, but you don't have fold equity as they are not ever folding once they lead,
 
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Sun Jun 22, 2014, 04:43 PM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,832
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Hi adikumar2010!

With AQo, when it folds to me in the cutoff, I'm going to make a standard raise (I use 2.2 or 2.5BB+1BB for each limper for these stacks).

The flop gives me 2 overs and a gutshot and the opp leads into me. This bet is very troubling for a number of reasons.
First, the sizing of it. It's large enough to price out not only a single draw and also prices out most combo draws. Most opps that bet their draws and could fold to a raise, do so intentionally small, so they can try to price in the draw. This is definitely not the case here.
Second, the opp's tendencies. This opp normally doesn't even bet the flop when they have the lead in the hand (c-bet is only 20%)... and now they're betting into me without the lead in the hand and sizing it big, which is normally big trouble.
Third, when I go to pokerstove and put in my hand, the board and their 26% range, I'm NOT the favorite in the hand, as I'll lose just over 52% of the time.

Taking all of this into account, I need to fold to this flop bet. The opp is betting when they normally do not and intentionally sizing it larger than normal, which shows extreme strength, meaning they will most likely not fold to a raise (if I want to make a play, I need to have a good amount of fold equity, which I do not have in this situation against this opp). The sizing of their bet prices me out, so I don't want to call, as I'll lose chips every single time that I call here. Also, I'm not the favorite in the hand, so... if I make a play and get called, I expect to lose.

My stack is still very playable and I don't want to be taking an unnecessary chance where I expect to lose as I should be able to find a much more favorable spot later in the tourney.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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6 Time Bracelet Winner



Last edited by JWK24; Sun Jun 22, 2014 at 05:00 PM.. Reason: typo
 
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Sun Jun 22, 2014, 05:03 PM
(#4)
adikumar2010's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,094
I think his call was also fine with gutshout and flush draw even after I shoved so can't blame him for poor call.

Even if I have AA its still a flip with , and pot odds are 41% for him
 
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Sun Jun 22, 2014, 05:10 PM
(#5)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,832
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Quote:
Originally Posted by adikumar2010 View Post
I think his call was also fine with gutshout and flush draw even after I shoved so can't blame him for poor call.

Even if I have AA its still a flip with , and pot odds are 41% for him
Calling the shove with Q8d is NOT a poor call. It's the correct play. Folding by them to the shove here would be absolutely awful! His hand equity vs your range is 49.3% with a pot equity is 36.1%. They expect to GAIN 13.2% each and every time they call here... so it's a SNAP-CALL.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Mon Jun 23, 2014, 10:51 PM
(#6)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
opponent donk bets hard i'll just fold my 2 overs and a gutshot your still have enough chips to wait for a better spot

i don't think he intends of bet folding on that spot the moment you reshoves all in get ready for the race of your tournament life

but on a good side you got it in very good just unlucky
 
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Tue Jun 24, 2014, 01:10 AM
(#7)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Hi,

Not read any other posts. I look at the hand strength, money behind 200/400/antis, we are about 20bb pre flop it folds to us.

Great hand to steal in position. The villain donk would annoy me so much. It suggests with 2 cards to come do we want to stack off? No we don't improve to any worse draw and a crying call... what if we hit?

Then get your "best vs villain range" turn card and we miss, what do you do next? I would probably fold to the donk lead this shallow in chips.
 

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