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25nl 6max Zoom, bottom set versus a nit

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25nl 6max Zoom, bottom set versus a nit - Sun Jun 22, 2014, 11:45 PM
(#1)
Paddy Gar's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 439
UTG is a recreational 1 tabler. MP is 13/11 9.6% 3bet through 100 hand sample. All 3bets are versus late position from the blinds. Has cbet once in 3 samples.

I would expect mp to 3bet tens plus/ Aq for value versus this stack size. Probably wider. So I expect their range to be pocket pair heavy/ don't think this is the villain type to flat suited connectors, particularily in this position, maybe a hand as strong as kqss?

Turn sizing worried me. It's not impossible but I didn't think villain would use this sizing with a hand like 88/99. I think fair assumption would be to assign a range of kx suited and sets, with the odd 88/99.

I think the only play is to call river, what if the sizing is larger? Can I shove for value ott?



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Last edited by Paddy Gar; Mon Jun 23, 2014 at 12:56 AM..
 
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Mon Jun 23, 2014, 01:37 AM
(#2)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
I don't dislike just calling here because there are not a lot of worse hands that can give us value.

I do think Gareth went all in on a hand like this during his recent training in playing tight players. Can't remember the exact scenario.
 
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Mon Jun 23, 2014, 09:54 AM
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TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
Hi Paddy,

I am shoving for sure. If he's got 55 or 77 he's going to win a full double up from me... there's 6 combos of those hands and I just feel like there's at least that many worse that will call us considering what our range looks like (a shove will look a lot like a busted draw trying to take down the side pot). 88-TT*, KQh, KJh, KTh = 21 combos, I think we can feel confident the K's are calling and with us looking like a busted draw when we shove we may get hero'd by more of these overpairs than you think. It's also not out of the question that he shows up with the occasional 66** in a spot like this.

*The turn sizing isn't as concerning to me in this situation as it might be in others... he could simply be trying to put pressure on you to go away/pricing out your draws while isolating the rec player by setting him all in with 88-TT. Not saying he can't have sets with this sizing, surely he can, just that I'm not as quick to rule out the overpairs. River sizing being just under half pot is consistent with this as well imo, trying to get a crying call from A7/76.

**An aggressive play for sure on the turn but in the interest of getting you off a 7 or draw and isolating the rec player who may have worse, I can see it. The river bet with this holding I'm not sure about, but sometimes players bet just because they don't want to check and have you bet, which 66 might fall into this category (it shouldn't... there's no side pot if he checks to you so there'd be no incentive for you to bluff a busted draw then, since you probably can't beat rec player with a bust... once he bets $10 though now a bluff shove can pick that money up so you can again rep the busted draw. Especially with ace high hearts where you might beat the rec player sometimes as well.

Maybe I'm too industrious in these spots, but I would tend to go for the shove.


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Mon Jun 23, 2014, 11:42 AM
(#4)
Paddy Gar's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 439
Hmmm, looking back now you're right Dave my hand can look like a busted draw if i shove. With the king pairing I could possibly get looked up light here.

I wasn't thinking like that because normally I would not call the turn bet with a draw, unless it was a combo. Also when I don't raise flop or turn my hand strength does not look very strong so villain can be going for thin value, as the bet sizing indicates.


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Mon Jun 23, 2014, 01:28 PM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Paddy Gar View Post
Also when I don't raise flop or turn my hand strength does not look very strong so villain can be going for thin value, as the bet sizing indicates.
I would expect him to have a fair number of value bets that are 1 pair in this spot (TT isn't even thin imo). The important question is how much of this stuff will he bet/call vs. bet/fold (and I'm assuming KhXh always bet/calls).


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