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5nl 6max - AA

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5nl 6max - AA - Thu Jun 26, 2014, 08:12 AM
(#1)
pullin1988's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 717
Hi guys



Please could you analyse my hand below.



After haivng some brutal beatings over quite a long period, I have been becoming more scared post flop - maybe for good reasons.

Once villain called my flop bet, I just thought he maybe slow playing a set here - irrational thinking possible.

Question is, would you be betting the turn?

I didn't like seeing the K on river, because KK is in his range, and so I think I need to definitely x river

Cheers,

Matt

Last edited by pullin1988; Thu Jun 26, 2014 at 09:22 AM..
 
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Thu Jun 26, 2014, 09:21 AM
(#2)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
I'd strongly consider checking the flop. It's a pretty good board for his defending range, and I don't expect to get 3 streets of value out of anyone decent.

As played, I like checking the turn for similar reasons, and donking river doesn't make much sense, so x/deciding seems like the best play.
 
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Fri Jun 27, 2014, 05:44 AM
(#3)
pullin1988's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 717
Cheers Birdayy,

Matt
 
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Fri Jun 27, 2014, 07:08 AM
(#4)
shoim's Avatar
Since: Jun 2013
Posts: 180
Hey Matt

I know what you mean about loosing pots with pre-flop monsters.
Again, reads are of importance here.
I take this guy is loose and passive. 3x UTG open / call 3b pre hmm.
Your sizing is decent pre, given you are in SB, would he 4b that is a no brainer shove i guess.
Flop is where I think you made a mistake - you give any 9,j (not even suggesting a combo like KJs that would make some kind of sense on his pre-flop line) the proper odds to out-draw you.
It is important to never loose confidence in your game and hence see monsters on the wall because it will make you crumble under the bed. I've been there and it's not funny (mostly when I am taking shots) The best thing to do is to go down to 2nl for 1k/2k hands and apply your knowledge and analyze the results, re-build confidence and get back.

Back to your hand : I would suggest a 75% bet on the flop / shove a brick turn or fold.

My two cents,
Bogdan
 
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Fri Jun 27, 2014, 09:15 AM
(#5)
pullin1988's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 717
Hey Bogdan,

Could you please go through the maths behind the odds I give him for out drawing me?

Cheers,

Matt
 
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Fri Jun 27, 2014, 09:15 AM
(#6)
pullin1988's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 717
Hey Bogdan,

Could you please go through the maths behind the odds I give him for out drawing me?

Cheers,

Matt
 
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Fri Jun 27, 2014, 10:28 AM
(#7)
shoim's Avatar
Since: Jun 2013
Posts: 180
Well, it's not just about pot odds, let's go through ranging on him. All is in a vacuum, as we have no reads.
Pre-flop :
3x raise UTG range : 15% : 77+,A7s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QJo
Hero vs Opponent : 84.86% vs 15.14%
call 3b range OOP : 5% : 88+,ATs+,KJs+,AKo (i added KJs although is not really in the 5% and perhaps he would've folded to 3b, but let's keep some options open)
Hero vs Opponent : 82.77% vs 17.23%
Pot : 1.05$
Flop : ThQs8c
You bet 0.56 > Pot is 1.60
With his entire range (that 88+,ATs+,KJs+,AKo) your equity drops, new numbers are :
Hero vs Opponent : 66.82% vs 33.18%
If you look at the pot vs his calling range on that flop you will notice that he has to pay 0.56 into 1.6 meaning he needs to call 2.85 : 1 (that is he has to call close 1/3 of the pot - 35%).
Ok, now would be a great time to consider his stack (he plays deep stack) meaning he can afford to float to showdown with even a portion of his range.
He knows you are good (that pre-flop 3b kinds signals that) and his plan is to outdraw you.
I think KK would've 4 bet you, even QQ some time.
I am not going into specifics with targeted hands he might call.
Ok, now let's go back to my sugestion on the flop :
Pot : 1.05$
Flop : ThQs8c
You bet 0.80 > Pot is 1.85
Equity :
Hero vs Opponent : 66.82% vs 33.18%
But this time he needs to call 0.8 into 1.85 which drops to 2.31 : 1, which is like 43% of the pot over 33% equity, and that, if called without a made hand or an awsome draw (we can eliminate flush+straight combo given rainbow flop) will mean trouble for the guy on the long run, calling against the odds.
It is hard to tell what you should do if he re-raises (need to take into account more factors) and future action on further streets.

It is not wrong to go for 1/2 pot there, no way, as there is no general rule of winning a hand , this would be my approach and my way of playing.

Hope I am right on the math and it helps,
Bogdan.
 
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Fri Jun 27, 2014, 11:41 AM
(#8)
pullin1988's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 717
Hi Bogdan,

Thanks very much for the detailed analysis. There are a couple of things that I am not sure about, and I feel this would be good to understand the math side of things more.

Quote:
Pre-flop :
3x raise UTG range : 15% : 77+,A7s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QJo
Hero vs Opponent : 84.86% vs 15.14%
call 3b range OOP : 5% : 88+,ATs+,KJs+,AKo (i added KJs although is not really in the 5% and perhaps he would've folded to 3b, but let's keep some options open)
Hero vs Opponent : 82.77% vs 17.23%
Pot : 1.05$
Flop : ThQs8c
You bet 0.56 > Pot is 1.60
With his entire range (that 88+,ATs+,KJs+,AKo) your equity drops, new numbers are :
Hero vs Opponent : 66.82% vs 33.18%
Based on what I know, here is how I would calculate pot odds, etc.


I bet 0.56c into a $1.60 pot giving villain pot odds of 2.85:1 Here is where my calculation will be slightly different.

2.85:1 = 1/3.85 = 1/4 = 25% equity (I did a bit of rounding up along the way). So I read this as villain needs at least 25% equity or 12/13 outs (considering the 2/4 rule on calculating outs) for the call to be profitable. Does this make sense or am I wrong?

Quote:
Hero vs Opponent : 66.82% vs 33.18%
According to my calculator this "Hero VS Opponent" equity is all-in equity, meaning if we go to showdown and villain does not put another penny into the pot. Now in this case I pretty much would have checked it down, so does this mean I gave him a great price? here wouldn't villain have to be sure that it would get checked down for him to make a profitable call? However when writing this I didn't take the made sets out of his range, since villain would give a damn about pot odds, all he would be worried about is getting my stack

Also don't I just need to consider he drawing equity...because if he has sets than I am pretty much crushed and pot odds don't matter to him. If we give him sets QQ, TT and 88 then villain is a favourite with 89%; however if villain was drawing, given the range that you provided, then this would be hands like 99, JJ, ATs+, KJs+, AKo to either make a set or a straight (or whatever that beats me) by the river then the all-in equity is around 23%. But again doesn't this assume that we are getting to showdown for free.

Because the other scenario would be the following:

villain will have to consider whether calling the flop bet is profitable by looking at his equity to make a hand that beats me on the turn.


villain holds 99, JJ, ATs+, KJs+, AKo and if he thinks that I have an overpair KK or AA then his equity to make the best hand on the turn is around 14%, and so it would not be a profitable call for him.

There are more caveats to consider about putting villains on exact hands, etc, but won't go into those for now.

Bogdan, what do you think about what I wrote?

This is good to discuss (to improve calculating pot odds) and so I would appreciate anyones response to this.


That's all I can think of for now.

Cheers,

Matt
 
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Fri Jun 27, 2014, 12:10 PM
(#9)
shoim's Avatar
Since: Jun 2013
Posts: 180
Hey Matt,

Quote:
I bet 0.56c into a $1.60
Nope you are betting 0.56 into a 1.05 pot creating a pot of 1.60 and him having to call 0.56 into that pot is 1/3 of the pot (aprox).
For the rest I think you are trying to guess and I 'feel' you tend to put him on a strong made hand on the flop (sets) which is based on bad history.
Just remember some stats :
- every player hits a flop 1/3 of the time (that's why pocket pairs are so awsome )
- sets are made only 8% of the time
The slight increase in my proposed raise (that +0.25c) for a loose passive guy is discreet if not invisible, you aim at making his draws more expensive so that chasing them, on the long run makes you money against likewise opponents. However, if he is a decent player, on that slightly coordinated board he will :
1. Re-raise for value more often than for bluffs.
2. Call - for example double-ended straight draws, 2 pairs (God only knows what he can play like that to get there on the flop).
3. Fold - and you make a small winning which might be frustrating (but hey, a win is a win) and to quote Doyle Brunson (AA's are either winning you a small pot or lose you a big one) ( here is me bragging with stuff)

Regards,
Shoim.
 
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Fri Jun 27, 2014, 12:29 PM
(#10)
pullin1988's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 717
My bad, it's not hero betting into a $1.60 pot

Villain is calling $0.56 into a $1.60 pot which is roughly 1/3 of pot

3:1 odds

But isn't, and correct me if I am wrong again, 3:1 odds = 1/4 = 25%??

Could you please check that again.

Thanks for your input I appreciate it.

Cheers,

Matt

Last edited by pullin1988; Fri Jun 27, 2014 at 12:41 PM..
 
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Fri Jun 27, 2014, 12:53 PM
(#11)
Riorei's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 26
ok
even if villain is LAG ( presumably, i dont know it really) and its sixmax i think his range is
99+ ATo+

For me until the turn is fine play. to check the turn when you dont know where you are is a mistake.
Sometimes i like to think not in ranges but in hands. For me it looks like he got AJ and to give him a free card there is a mistake. His hand is not a set and he is not trapping. it looks like he is drawing and you should be more agro on the turn. dont be shy with AA though stars soft could be cruel against AA, but try to get as much value as you can. Also you gave strange signals. you raised him pre and then checked the turn which screams of set (QQQ) or KK or AA.


Bracelet Winner

 
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Fri Jun 27, 2014, 12:54 PM
(#12)
shoim's Avatar
Since: Jun 2013
Posts: 180
Yep, you're right (
Quote:
But isn't, and correct me if I am wrong again, 3:1 odds = 1/4 = 25%?
My bad on the pot odds %, need to work on those things still .
 
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Fri Jun 27, 2014, 12:59 PM
(#13)
pullin1988's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 717
All Cool.

Thanks for the advice I shall take it on board. And I am glad I have helped you with a little something.

Cheers,

Matt
 
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Fri Jun 27, 2014, 01:17 PM
(#14)
pullin1988's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 717
Hi riorei,

Quote:
ok
even if villain is LAG ( presumably, i dont know it really) and its sixmax i think his range is
99+ ATo+

For me until the turn is fine play. to check the turn when you dont know where you are is a mistake.
Sometimes i like to think not in ranges but in hands. For me it looks like he got AJ and to give him a free card there is a mistake. His hand is not a set and he is not trapping. it looks like he is drawing and you should be more agro on the turn. dont be shy with AA though stars soft could be cruel against AA, but try to get as much value as you can. Also you gave strange signals. you raised him pre and then checked the turn which screams of set (QQQ) or KK
Villain had 99.

Preflop I didn't know anything about villain, and so I made the assumption that he knew what he was doing.

I bet flop without really giving it a lot of thought. The reason why I checked turn was because I thought at the time (usually what I think at the time is wrong - lol) villain could either be slow playing a set, and so want to get to showdown as cheap as possible just in case I am good. If he has a pair that he is floating with because he might think that I have AK and I am just cbetting the flop then if he bets the turn I can call with the better hand. River was the worse card of them all for my actual hand, but if he has anything worse then he could see it as a scared.

If I bet turn, given that I made the assumption, "he knew what he was doing", do you think that villian will call a turn bet with worse?

I see what you mean about the draws though. I didn't think about draws with the assumption of him being decent; It just seems so bad for villain to call a 3bet with a potentially dominated hand to draw with, doesn't it?

Cheers appreciate the advice.

Matt
 
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Fri Jun 27, 2014, 01:48 PM
(#15)
shoim's Avatar
Since: Jun 2013
Posts: 180
Hey Matt,

This is a good discussion.
Now about this :
Quote:
It just seems so bad for villain to call a 3bet with a potentially dominated hand to draw with, doesn't it?
I guess it is most of the time, but, then we have to consider :
- our history with the guy
- our own image (when I am on a session I set my stats to session only to monitor my own image if I am multi-tabling)
- stacks
- most notably would help some showdown hands on him and his course of action against other opponents.

From this particular hand (99s ?!) I would put him on the loose passive category with a big stack, and take a note.

Bogdan
 
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Fri Jun 27, 2014, 02:38 PM
(#16)
Riorei's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 26
I see what you mean about the draws though. I didn't think about draws with the assumption of him being decent; It just seems so bad for villain to call a 3bet with a potentially dominated hand to draw with, doesn't it?



Dont ever forget that those are microstakes. To lose some cents there is nothing though some may argue.
Why not to call with AJ even if its bad play? many do so, ive done it. price in reality is not that high. it may flop a pair against AK or KK or QQ.


Bracelet Winner

 
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Fri Jun 27, 2014, 02:44 PM
(#17)
Riorei's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 26
If I bet turn, given that I made the assumption, "he knew what he was doing", do you think that villian will call a turn bet with worse?



You can still rep AK on the turn and size your bet so that it wont scare him away. he might also take a straight draw line and bluff. we do not know his thought process, right?

what if you would bet 35% of the pot on the turn to look weak? I think it would have been good rep of AK and if he is convinced of that he might raise you.


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Fri Jun 27, 2014, 02:52 PM
(#18)
Riorei's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 26
yep, as the river was king then place to make money was turn.


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Fri Jun 27, 2014, 03:05 PM
(#19)
pullin1988's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 717
It's great to see how others would play the hand.

I don't think I can add anymore to that.

Be ready for the next hand that I post - lol.

Cheers guys!

Matt
 
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Fri Jun 27, 2014, 04:23 PM
(#20)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by pullin1988 View Post
Hi guys



Please could you analyse my hand below.



After haivng some brutal beatings over quite a long period, I have been becoming more scared post flop - maybe for good reasons.

Once villain called my flop bet, I just thought he maybe slow playing a set here - irrational thinking possible.

Question is, would you be betting the turn?

I didn't like seeing the K on river, because KK is in his range, and so I think I need to definitely x river

Cheers,

Matt
Hi Matt!

If you were not willing to get all in on the river, either by betting yourself or calling a bet by him, you never should have called the villain's turn bet. (Don't put half in and lose by folding when you might only put 20% in and lose by folding instead)

If you were not willing to FOLD to the turn bet he made behind your check you never should have checked the turn with the betting lead (unless you had info you did not give us to suggest the BEST way to get all in would be to check the turn).

If you were not willing to bet the turn, you probably should have either not C-Bet, or bet the max amount you were prepared to risk in total on the flop; which would have been MORE than the roughly half pot you did bet (again, this is unless you have info you did not give us a different line might result in better value extraction).

If you were not willing to put more at risk than the amount you bet (half pot) on the flop, you probably should not have 3bet pre flop. (unless you have info you did not give us)

If you are not willing to 3bet pre flop on the nuts, you probably should not be playing 6 max poker! (unless...blah blah, you get the point!)

;-)

I strongly suggest you google stack to pot ratio, and check out TheLangolier's videos in the PSO library on planning your hand around commitment, and SPR thoughts. His stack management stuff is really good too. A lot of times, especially when you might not have a ton of info on an opponent, your decisions on late streets are all but made for you already on early ones!

Hope it helps!

-JDean


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