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nl 25 river problem(or not)

nl 25 river problem(or not) - Sun Jun 29, 2014, 04:53 AM
rudar47's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 73
PokerStars - $0.25 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: $25.00 (VPIP: 12.65, PFR: 9.88, 3Bet Preflop: 5.32, Hands: 254)
MP+1: $26.16 (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
CO: $30.73 (VPIP: 18.03, PFR: 15.16, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 246)
BTN: $14.93 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
SB: $16.75 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
BB: $25.00 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
UTG: $28.59 (VPIP: 15.56, PFR: 15.56, 3Bet Preflop: 11.76, Hands: 46)
UTG+1: $17.41 (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 91)
Hero (UTG+2): $25.00

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has Q:diamond: Q:heart:

fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.75, fold, fold, fold, BTN calls $0.75, fold, fold

Flop: ($1.85, 2 players) Q:spade: A:diamond: 7:club:
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($1.85, 2 players) T:club:
Hero bets $1.06, BTN calls $1.06

River: ($3.97, 2 players) A:heart:
Hero bets $2.27, BTN raises to $13.12 and is all-in, Hero calls $10.85

So I know you say c-bet and i agree with you!
But what about river call?
His pre flop range is( maybe little tighter):
After flop action we can't eliminate so many hands from his range but after a turn call his range should be something around this:

on the river after his raise all in we need 36% equity to call
if we assume that his range is:
it is a call but i am not sure about his range!
OFC if we have more data on the player it would be better
Any way comments, suggestions?
Sun Jun 29, 2014, 09:53 AM
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi rudar47

I would treat an unknown that does not top up their stack as a weaker opponent. Regardless, we have a very strong hand here and there no reason not to be happy to get the money in.

To answer your questions, I would cbet this flop for two reasons: 1. when we have QQ, villain can have more Ax combos in their range; If we had AA we could decide to x/c because it would be less likely that villain would have an Ace 2. Villain seems to be a weaker opponent and can have many combos that can call us for 3 streets.

It's really tough to tell what hands they have in their range without any information so I wouldn't make too many assumptions here and would rather, in this case, look at hand strength and board texture.

Preflop could really be anything. I wouldn't be surprised to see T7s in their calling range. I expect them to 3bet AA, KK, QQ, most JJ, and AK
Flop: when they check back, I suppose they would check back total air that would give up to later bets or hands with some SD value. I think gutshot like KJ would bet and I also think we cannot assume that all Qx or Ax would check back.
So their check back range could look like: some combos of medium Qx: KQ, QJ, QT - some combos of weak Ax: A2-A9 - PPs: 22-66, 88-JJ - 7x
Their turn call will now include all clubs that checked back flop, Tx, JJ, sometimes TT might play it passive here since they might fear a KJ?? and 1 to a straight might peel bcoz they are bad like Kx, Jx maybe. Ofcourse Qx/Ax that checked back flop will call too. OTR: they will raise with their TT that just called turn, Ax that checked back flop, and maybe turn Tx or busted club draw to a bluff thinking that since we did not bet the Ace OTF then we might not have an Ace and they can get us to fold a Qx.
Sun Jun 29, 2014, 10:43 AM
rudar47's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 73
I was thinking that I made a good call regardless that guy had A10 on the end. About c-bet I understand that I need to c bet here 100'% time but didn't do so because..... don't know what reason

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