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NL10 Zoom - tough river spot with K-high flush

NL10 Zoom - tough river spot with K-high flush - Fri Jul 04, 2014, 02:36 PM
Sadaus's Avatar
Since: Jul 2014
Posts: 7
Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (SB): $11.84 (118.4 bb)
BB: $8.73 (87.3 bb) - 28/16, AF:5 over 65 hands
UTG: $11.73 (117.3 bb)
MP: $12.01 (120.1 bb)
CO: $18.21 (182.1 bb)
BTN: $24.16 (241.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K T
4 folds, Hero raises to $0.25, BB calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.50) 8 3 J (2 players)
Hero bets $0.30, BB calls $0.30

Turn: ($1.10) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.70, BB calls $0.70

River: ($2.50) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.70, BB raises to $4.30, Hero ?

Is my agro line good in this hand? I tried to steal pre-flop, on the flop I continuing with the intention to double barrel any spade or king and surrendering if my hand doesn't improve. On the river I'm betting for value ofc, but the villain raises. Can we fold here or it's OK to call?
Fri Jul 04, 2014, 07:13 PM
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Considering this is BvB, I don't like folding. I would call this river raise.
Sat Jul 05, 2014, 06:49 AM
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi Sadaus :Wave:
Let’s consider villain’s calling range preflop and see how they might continue on this flop.
Preflop I think we might be safe to assume they can call with ~35% of hands so things like:
{99-22, AJ-A2, KQ-87, KJ-T8, KT-J8, K9o, 76s, 65s, 97s-75s, T7s, Q8s, Q7s, K8s, K7s, J7s}
3betting hands like: {AA-TT, AQ+} and 3bet bluff with some equal combos of say some rubish suited hands like: {K6s-K2s, Q6s-Q4s, J6s, T6s, 96s, 85s}

Our hand against their range on this flop actually only has 35% equity and this is also a board we can get raised on with quite a few hands so perhaps there might be a better line to take than cbetting; I’m not going to endulge in this now because I think it might take a bit of time to construct different flop lines. But my hypothesis is there might be a better way to play this flop, we might want to include some hands to x/r flops, or check flop and look to bluff on later streets if its checked back… Just a thought here and not based on any study.
Anyway, let’s now consider what sort of hands elect to call instead of fold or raise on this flop.
I think we can disqualify sets and two pairs from their range since those would be more likely to raise us OTF given the board texture. So let’s remove 88, 33, and J8 from their range. Most NFDs should also be raising us OTF so let’s remove the ATs, A9s, A7s-A4s, A2s. I think we can remove the offsuit parts of those hands too.
So the hands that call our flop cbet will be:
TP hands: AJ, KJ, QJ, JT, J9, J7s
PP: 99, 77s
Middle pairs: A8, Q8, T8, 98, 87, 86s
Gutshots/OESD + FD/bckdr
On the turn, I expect most non nut flushes to be raising us. The QsTs, Qs9s, Ts9s, Ts7s, 9s7s, 7s5s and all the TP, MP with 1 spade, As3s, to call wich means by the river the flushes that get there will be distributed between 37.5% nut flush, 37.5% weak flush, 12.5% 3rd nut flush, and 12.5% 4th nut flush which justifies a bet/fold from us since 62.5% of their flushes would just call and only the nut flushes would raise.
Sat Jul 05, 2014, 07:14 AM
Sadaus's Avatar
Since: Jul 2014
Posts: 7
Thanks for the informative evaluation of my hand!

I tanked a lot OTR, couldn't thought any worse hand that can raise me here, but still made a call (maybe that's why I'm down-swinging like hell). Villain showed the A9s ant took the pot. I was a little bit confused, because he played his hand so passively on all the streets, but if we'll be a little bit results orientated in this hand, he extracted almost the most value out of me

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