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Risky manoeuvre !

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Risky manoeuvre ! - Fri Jul 11, 2014, 09:30 AM
(#1)
adikumar2010's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,094
I know it's a loose open but I play more speculative hand with fishes on the table coz the implied odds are insane. When you make a hand they can't fold top pair or draw. On a good table I don't play these hands but on a loose passive fishy tables I choose to play more hands. I don't know if its good strategy or bad.

Coz usually people say when everyone is loose on your table you should play tight and vice-versa. But I think I can also play loose with decent hands coz they are willing to stack off superlight.

It's $3.30 APPT ACOP Mega Giveaway Satellite Stage 2. 10mins blind level and 1500 starting stack. Early stages of the game.

I had bad odds on flop to chase gut-shot but my reason was to float and maybe get hearts turn or maybe get turn double belly buster or hit my 4.

Anyways on the river I had no option but to shove, maybe it's bad idea to bluff a fish but pot was too big for me not to take a risk there as I can rep flush or better pair. Most probably she would cry call me with 9x. I don't think she can fold better then 98+ and forget about making her fold 2 pair. Only pair she realistically fold is 2 or 3 or 7.

You can't range a fish but most probably she should have 94 or 95 or 96. (She could have a set very easily but I suspect most players like to slow play sets or check raise)

Plz tell me what are the mistakes I made and how is my thought process wrong.



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Fri Jul 11, 2014, 04:49 PM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,476
(Head Trainer)
Hi adi,

Quote:
Plz tell me what are the mistakes I made and how is my thought process wrong.
Good approach... here's what I'd say:

Mistakes:

-Opening preflop from this position on 50bb's, vs. basically unknowns (13 hands into the tourney). Just fold. Open in LP or on deeper stacks would be ok imo.

-Floating flop. It's nice deeper stacked but we are not really deep enough here, and not sure how good a target villain is for this.

-Shoving river. Your primary bluff target is 9x, and you say you think she will call with 9x, so your bluff can't be good if that's accurate. In fact your whole reason for getting involved was because you felt if you make a hand they can't fold.

Wrong thought process:

-Having insane implied odds. The money is not nearly deep enough to qualify implied odds as insane.

-Assuming villain is a fish. Maybe, but we have only seen 13 hands.

-"On the river I had no option but to shove". Yes, you have the option to give up. You even say you don't think she can fold 98+, so giving up seems like a fine option. "The pot was too big for me not to take a risk". If the villain won't fold much, then the risk is not worth the reward because you are getting snapped off way too much.

The whole premise for getting involved in the first place was to make a hand, and get paid cause they can't/won't fold. You're not deep enough for this plan to bear fruit long term. And then once involved in the hand, you're going against this whole premise and game plan and trying a huge bluff for your tournament life.

You still have 36bb if you give up, and a table full of fish according to you, so there's plenty of time to compete and grow your stack.


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