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Close decision!

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Close decision! - Fri Jul 11, 2014, 09:42 AM
(#1)
adikumar2010's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,094
It's $3.30 APPT ACOP Mega Giveaway Satellite Stage 2. 10mins blind level and 1500 starting stack. Early stages of the game.

Should I shove or call or fold, it sucks to call and then fold to a shove and to directly fold is loss of chips.

But if I shove I can guarantee you they will call me with garbage hands (all they need is suited cards ) but also they can wake up with a better hand then mine.

PS: I think if I had AQs+ and 99+. This would be snap shove, correct me if I am wrong.

I am only scared of two big stacks behind me coz if they call my shove I can go busto & one of them is a loose cannon.

PokerStars Hand #118617109694: Tournament #932413503, $3.00+$0.30 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (50/100) - 2014/07/11 19:04:33 IST [2014/07/11 9:34:33 ET]
Table '932413503 1' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 2: katyrix (730 in chips)
Seat 3: adikumar2010 (3006 in chips)
Seat 5: MiCkYKrS (1425 in chips)
Seat 6: sasakku339 (5246 in chips)
Seat 7: liwf68 (1052 in chips)
Seat 8: Sampson_Li (1100 in chips)
Seat 9: MeMiiE (5441 in chips)
Sampson_Li: posts small blind 50
MeMiiE: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to adikumar2010 [ ]
katyrix: raises 630 to 730 and is all-in
adikumar2010:
MiCkYKrS: Action Pending
sasakku339: Action Pending
liwf68: Action Pending
Sampson_Li: Action Pending
MeMiiE: Action Pending

STATS :
 
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Fri Jul 11, 2014, 10:33 AM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,857
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Hi adikumar2010!

I'm snap-shoving 88 here and here's why....

The opp in the hand is playing very loose, 44% to start with and can be even wider when shoving a short stack. Also, the BB, that is most likely to call.. is even wider.

As wide as these opps are, I'd be much happier shoving a mid pair than Ax, because due to how wide the opp's ranges are, I'm not even most likely to be up against 2 overs.. I can easily be up against only 1 over, which makes me even better off.

If everyone folds, it's about a +9%EV play against the original shove, but if the BB calls, then I'm still at about a +9%EV play (but a larger chip gain, as it's 9% of a much larger pot).

Even 55+ is a +EV shove here, assuming that the BB calls. Most aces (A7o+) are +EV against even the two opps. With the aces, I wouldn't reshove the entire range, but would definitely go ATo+ and I'd include KQo+ too.. so my shove range would be 55+, ATo+, KQo+.

Against a loose cannon, I'd prefer to have a made hand rather than 2 overs, as they can always hit their lowest card to bust me if I don't have a made hand.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Fri Jul 11, 2014, 10:41 AM
(#3)
adikumar2010's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,094
Isn't this overplaying of 88s coz I am shoving 30BB with not a really good hand anymore if I get called from someone behind me. 30BB is too many chips in a tournament more then average stack.

I am risking 30BB to win 8BB which is not that bad. But 30BB isn't this a marginal risky shove ?
 
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Fri Jul 11, 2014, 10:47 AM
(#4)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,857
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Against competent opponents, it is way too risky, but against these two specific opps, it's not.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Fri Jul 11, 2014, 10:56 AM
(#5)
adikumar2010's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,094
Thanks for explanation
 
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Fri Jul 11, 2014, 10:59 AM
(#6)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,857
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Also, remember.. we're expecting the BB to call, so the potential win is a lot more than 8BB, it's 38BB!

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 

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