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NL25zoom 77 makes set on river

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NL25zoom 77 makes set on river - Fri Jul 11, 2014, 09:50 AM
(#1)
fonsdewolf's Avatar
Since: Apr 2014
Posts: 4
Villain is a regular who plays 24/17/3bet7 who i previously seen raising flops with draws. On the river i just did not knew what to do and timed out. any help?



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Fri Jul 11, 2014, 03:38 PM
(#2)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
I would call. Villain opens to 4x PF? is this standard from him? looks like slow played AA or KK gone bad and now he's just betting the river because he's bad or bluffing.

If 4x open is standard for this villain then I would fold I guess but I don't like it considering the villain checks back OTF, no idea what they're checking back the flop and raising the turn with unless it's two big spades (AsKs)
 
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Fri Jul 11, 2014, 03:40 PM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,499
(Head Trainer)
Hi fonds,

Are we sure we can set mine this profitably from OOP? We need to win about half a stack here on average when we make a set, I'm not optimistic we will do so often enough vs. a 4x open and playing the pot OOP. It's going to be tough to perform well without a set not having the positional advantage as well. If the villain were a fish then I like calling for sure, but it's probably not profitable (or at best, marginally so) vs. this guy.

I don't think that calling the raise, and calling river, is going to be a money maker for us in the long run. Sure, we pick him off the times he's bluffing busted spades... when he doesn't have the 9s. If we don't improve our hand at all I don't think we can call.

Since we made a set, it's closer, as we've just drawn out on top pair or overpairs, but his line looks fairly strong to me betting the river big. Ultimately I don't think we're losing much folding or calling. IOW the river isn't a very important question in terms of our long term bottom line. This whole hand is a nice example though of the difficulty of playing a small pair out of position vs. a competent opponent.


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