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Low on Chips in the Big $5.50 - Tournament Hand

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Low on Chips in the Big $5.50 - Tournament Hand - Mon Jul 14, 2014, 01:52 PM
(#1)
adikumar2010's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,094
It's Big $5.50 with 10mins slow structure. I am deep like 140/162. But I have 1/2 average chip stack. Being deep doesn't matter as PS structure is top heavy all the money is on FT.

Can I shove or not?

 
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Mon Jul 14, 2014, 03:21 PM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,792
(Super-Moderator)
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Hi adikumar2010!

When playing a tourney, I'm more focused on how many BB's I have in my stack, not what the avg chip number is. This number can be severely skewed, if there is a huge stack in the tourney. I want to play my hand based on my stack and the opp's at the table's stacks.. not chasing what someone on another table has.

With 17BB, I get an open from an opp that so far, has been playing passively (hasn't raised yet, but with no hands on them to speak of, that doesn't mean much). Due to no history, I'll use 1/2 their vpip as their PFR, so I'll use 14.5%. 44 is a 43-56% dog against this range. Another problem is that there are two players to act behind me and the BB is loose. If I would have to play this as a 3-way pot, I'm a 29-71% dog, so I will lose over 7 in every 10 times.

I also cannot consider calling here, as I don't have the 15x the chips in my stack to setmine.

The real question here is.. how much fold equity do I really have if I shove? I will have some, but with two loose opps and one having a stack, it's most likely not enough to overcome this large of a deficit, to make it a +EV shove. If I knew these opps were likely to fold (don't have enough history to determine this with them and no other read information was provided), then a shove becomes much closer and could turn into the best play.

I also have to look at how the opp's perceive me (information not provided). Have I played any of the hands since I moved to this table? If so, what did I have to showdown or what happened in the hands? Do I think the opps could have been watching my previous tables and if so, what did I go to showdown with? All strong hands or have I had to showdown something light? It looks like I have been very aggro in the hands that I've played... which could get me called lighter (not what I want with a small pair).

Taking all of this into account, I'm letting this go and looking for a better spot, especially in a slow blind structure. Either one where I can be first in or where I'm going to be isolated against one opp.
If it was a turbo, I'd probably go with it, even though it is most likely a slight -EV shove.

If I had 88 or higher, then I'd shove, as I'd be a favorite or a slight dog to their range, but would be able to make up for this with fold equity. 44 is a bit too light for me in this situation.

However, if I did have a read on the BB and the opener where they would be more likely to fold to a shove, then I'd be much more tempted to shove here and can make a case for it, but without this information, I'll find another spot.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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Mon Jul 14, 2014, 08:48 PM
(#3)
SulonExtron's Avatar
Since: Oct 2013
Posts: 70
Yea the average stack can be very misleading in some tourneys,a mean stack would be a far more accurate/useful measurement of comparison.
 
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Wed Jul 16, 2014, 03:30 AM
(#4)
SulonExtron's Avatar
Since: Oct 2013
Posts: 70
Wooops,I meant median
 
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Wed Jul 16, 2014, 05:46 AM
(#5)
chuckkky's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 913
Hey Ad
my rule of thumb is, If I think I'm flipping or crushed it's prob best to fold.
Cheers
chuckkky
 
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Wed Jul 16, 2014, 10:13 AM
(#6)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by chuckkky View Post
Hey Ad
my rule of thumb is, If I think I'm flipping or crushed it's prob best to fold.
Cheers
chuckkky
We will be flipping or crushed the vast majority of the time when we get called. That's why an estimation of our fold equity is so critical in a spot like this.


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