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River Bluff Shove - 50NL 6 Max Cash Game

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River Bluff Shove - 50NL 6 Max Cash Game - Tue Jul 15, 2014, 12:34 AM
(#1)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
As played...

OTF: I was actually debating checking this flop but I decided that there are too many good turn cards for us so I thought that a bet would be better

OTT: I think checking this turn back is best as villain will have 2 pair, sets, flush draws and we have a TON of equity. I don't think that they would check 9x here OTT, plus they won't be folding sets or nut flush draws.

OTR: After villain XRs OTF, checks turn and bets river I think we can bluff shove our hand here?

Villain: 3 tabling reg from Finland
(244 hands) VPIP:22 PFR:17 AF:4.7 3B:8.
1

 
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Tue Jul 15, 2014, 02:43 AM
(#2)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Wow this is scary... at the end what worse calls? Are we bluffing nut straight.

We open pre and get 3 callers Humm? Good in position and cbet OK but what if? Well it happens we get x/r by the sb. So I can't do any good range analysis on stats from the sb - leave that to better HA posters.

But we get a message and I'm still with the call. Probably wrong but can give up on the turn. Then well we turn equity vs what range?

 
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Tue Jul 15, 2014, 03:17 AM
(#3)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Forrest, this is not a value shove. obviously nothing worse will call but I think we can fold out all sets and 2 pair type hands. We can maybe get 9x to lay down as well... I really don't think villain has any 9s here. 9x would just call multiway on this flop. Just my thoughts.
 
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Tue Jul 15, 2014, 03:36 AM
(#4)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Hi, dirt eh

I get the idea of bluffing a relative hand strength like a flop/turn set 2 pair. Did you pick up on the check turn from the villain?

The stats may give info I don't understand if they give up? Then checking behind sets you up for a nice bluff.

You had a plan on the turn? Thought it was quite a scary spot.
 
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Tue Jul 15, 2014, 12:11 PM
(#5)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi dirt eh

I think the fact that we have backdoor hearts going for us, makes this a good hand to cbet. We can still get called by worse Jx and Tx and even raised with a draw. We can consider checking back with weaker Jx or even a KJ with no backdoor. Given we are 4 handed I would prefer betting now to thin out the field with the connectivity of the board. There might a valid reason to bet the turn with the added equity we get OTT, but checking back also makes sense since we do have showdown value and at the same time I'm thrilled getting x/shoved on with just 1 card left to come. But I'm not convinced that turning our hand to a bluff will show profit on the long-haul in this spot.
 
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Tue Jul 15, 2014, 12:21 PM
(#6)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
Hi dirt,

I really dislike the flop call tbh. The fact that we c-bet multi-way here shows some decent strength (unless villain has a read we are a c-bet monkey, which he should not against you I think). He is check-raising you in said multi-way pot, on a coordinated board, for a very large sizing. This action screams value/protection to me and is denying you a good price to peel him. Despite the fact that we have some back door draws, for this sizing I think we can just let the hand go.

As played, I'm not a big fan of the river bluff. It's not totally unreasonable, I'm just not feeling comfortable that the villain will release 2 pair+ because the strong hands we're repping aren't really credible imo. AK should not be peeling the flop for this large a x/r sizing (nor should it c-bet 4 ways, probably). 99/A9 would frequently bet the turn rather than give a free card to a set/2 pair. So our line makes it difficult for us to show up with these holdings. I agree with you that he doesn't have a 9 too often, I just think we are fairly susceptible to being sniffed out here.


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