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Stealing - getting confused

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Stealing - getting confused - Mon Jul 21, 2014, 05:50 PM
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pullin1988's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 717
Hi guys,

For the life of me I can not work out if stealing is profitable.

In HEM2, I have a steal success percentage (percentage of the time hero win the pot uncontested) of 57.7%, or roughly 58% of the time.

Now I am raising on the BTN 2.5x, so 2.5bb the amount I put into the unopened pot on the BTN divided by the amount I put into the pot plus the blind amount gives the percentage my steal needs to be successful to breakeven, if I check fold somewhere and I don't put another penny into the pot and fold somewhere.

so.....

to breakeven I need to generate folds = 2.5 / (1.5 + 2.5)

= 63%

Does this mean the following:

Stealing is not profitable if I always give up after villain 3bets preflop, or if villain calls preflop and I give up on a later street where I don't put another penny into the pot because of the fact that my steal success is 58%


I believe that I am wrong, but I can't for the life of me work out why.

Is there something that I missing?

Anyone know how to filter for this in HEM2?

I can't seem to use HEM2 optimally

Cheers,

Matt

Last edited by pullin1988; Tue Jul 22, 2014 at 11:51 AM..
 

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