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Tricky Spot at NL 50 - Cash Game Hand

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Tricky Spot at NL 50 - Cash Game Hand - Tue Jul 22, 2014, 05:04 AM
(#1)
rudar47's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 73
PokerStars - $0.50 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: $50.00 (VPIP: 14.42, PFR: 9.62, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 105)
BB: $50.00 (VPIP: 15.49, PFR: 14.08, 3Bet Preflop: 8.00, Hands: 72)
UTG: $50.00 (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 47)
Hero (UTG+1): $65.34
MP: $61.36 (VPIP: 13.64, PFR: 11.36, 3Bet Preflop: 11.76, Hands: 44)
CO: $64.63 (VPIP: 14.75, PFR: 11.48, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 61)
BTN: $27.00 (VPIP: 3.70, PFR: 3.70, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 28)

SB posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has 7:spade: 7:diamond:

fold, Hero raises to $1.50, fold, CO raises to $4.50, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $3.00

Flop: ($9.75, 2 players) 7:club: J:diamond: Q:heart:
Hero checks, CO bets $4.66, Hero calls $4.66

Turn: ($19.07, 2 players) K:diamond:
Hero checks, CO bets $12.25, Hero calls $12.25

River: ($43.57, 2 players) Q:spade:
Hero checks, CO bets $43.22 and is all-in, Hero calls $43.22

So guy his line looks so so strong, can we believe him in this situation and when is time to fold?
Because CO have CB 0% i put him on turn on a range of:
JJ+,AQs+,ATs,KQs,KTs,AQo+,ATo,KQo,KTo
Can we exclude on the turn hand like K10 AQ maybe also AA?
On the river i think he is moving all in with:
JJ-KK,AQs,ATs,KQs,AQo,ATo,KQo
Pot odds are around 33% so we have to call?
Any way player cbet 0% can we take this factor and fold in some part of the hand?
When to fold?
 
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Tue Jul 22, 2014, 11:16 AM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
Hi rudar,

Firstly, I think our main problem stems from the preflop play. I think we should just be folding small and medium pairs in this spot. While the villain has enough money to provide implied odds, he seems like a poor candidate to give it up when we flop as set, and we won't be able to play this hand easily without a set since we'll be out of position. He's a tighter player, making his first 3-bet in 61 hands, vs an EP open... this is probably a strong hand, and there aren't a lot of scenarios where we flop a set and stack him.

Post flop, I do think we have to fold, and the river is the time to do it.

You're saying his continuation bet % is 0, and yet he's c-betting, more strength being shown post flop. AA/AdQd are probably still in his turn betting range, but not much else that's worse than our hand is. AK may not cbet the flop if he c-bets infrequently. Other hands you have stated in his turn and river range are extremely unlikely given the preflop action... remember to tie your ranging in across all streets. A villain who has 3B zero times in 61 hands is probably not breaking the ice with KTo vs. an UTG+1 open for instance.

So let's look at your river range for him to move all in for a pot sized bet, and put it to the test of the actions across all streets...

JJ-KK: Yes, all pass the test imo, we lose to them all
AQs: Only AdQd passes the test... other AQ hands probably check this turn behind us.
ATs: Fails the preflop 3B test. Fails the flop C-bet test. I feel very comfortable removing this holding from his range that gets to the river in the manner which he did.
KQs: Probably not 3-betting pre over flatting an EP open. Beats us anyway
AQo: Fails the turn barreling test mostly. Also may not 3B pre.
ATo: See ATs
KQo: See KQs

We have discounted AA as a river move in hand, if that's accurate then I think we are good 0% of the time when he moves in assuming he doesn't moves in with AdQd. If he would do it with AA half the time he holds it, we are still not good often enough. There are 7 combos of JJ-KK, 1 of AdQd, 1 of KQs, so 8-1 dog there. I do think it's unlikely he is moving in for such a large sizing with AA otr, but even counting 2 of those combos we still can't call profitably with 33% odds.

Ultimately, this seems like a puke/fold imo.





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Last edited by TheLangolier; Tue Jul 22, 2014 at 11:29 AM..
 
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Tue Jul 22, 2014, 12:07 PM
(#3)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Dave, I agree with preflop. You beat me to this one. I would prefer to have 140bb in this spot or 20x to make this call pf.

As played I also agree with folding the river but shouldn't we be check/raising this board OTF, looking to get it in?
 

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