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MM-47 $4.40 [1R1A] - Too Thin On River?

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MM-47 $4.40 [1R1A] - Too Thin On River? - Tue Jul 22, 2014, 07:43 AM
(#1)
adikumar2010's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,094
It's MicroMillions-047: $4.40 NL Hold'em [1R1A] , 10mins blind 5000 starting stack.

Should I have 3-bet preflop? I didn't coz I wanted worse hand to continue againt my range as 3-bet will get insta-folds from steal hands.

Also I thought if I flat SB with short stack might squeeze shove light and I will be able to snap his all-in.

Should I not shove on river?

When I was playing the hand I thought on river I have the best hand and he might call with his KQ QT.

But after the result I thought that even if I knew he has a better hand then me. Then My bluff attempt on the river is not that poor, as I can get him to fold AQ QJ.

Coz in his eyes I played the hand exactly I would play if I have a flush draw.

But that's just after thoughts coz after showdown I realized I was bluffing him. So to back my river shove I am saying that bluff attempt was not poor. I am not sure I am just justifying my river play.

But as I said I really thought I have the best hand and make him to hero call some KQ QT.

PS: If he had JJ or QQ he is not checking full house.



STATS :
 
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Tue Jul 22, 2014, 10:29 AM
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TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,650
(Head Trainer)
Hi adi,

Everything is well played up until the river imo.

Your thoughts on the river explanation are contradictory, it does sound like you are trying to justify the shove. Specifically:

"When I was playing the hand I thought on river I have the best hand and he might call with his KQ QT."

and

"But after the result I thought that even if I knew he has a better hand then me. Then My bluff attempt on the river is not that poor, as I can get him to fold AQ QJ."

You can't have it both ways... he is not both calling with worse hands and folding better hands. It sounds like you're unsure if he'll do either, which is a good reason not to bet.

So first, let's be clear, you are not bluffing with this bet... there is zero % change a better hand will fold imo. KK+ is looking you up... according to you, we might get hero called by KQ/QT because you played the hand exactly like if you have a flush draw (turned flush draw). If that's true, he may also check/call KK/AA and yes, even full houses sometimes, to induce a bluff.

Will the river shove get called by worse? Sometimes. KQ is the prime candidate. But it seems too thin to me, as we are also getting check/called by better hands as well. And if we even think it's close, or slightly +EV (like let's say we knew for certain somehow that when called, we'd be good 51% of the time, so +EV by the thinnest of margins), it's almost certainly worth giving up that slightly +EV thin value bet in a tournament to preserve a 25bb stack the 49% of the time we're called and wrong.

It's a good spot to think about, but ultimately I would recommend checking down.



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Last edited by TheLangolier; Tue Jul 22, 2014 at 11:30 AM.. Reason: adding twitter promo
 
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Tue Jul 22, 2014, 10:37 AM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,650
(Head Trainer)
Edit: One added thought, the title of the post was originally "I thought I had the best hand", and certainly you do sometimes. For example he can easily have AxKd in his range.

Value betting the river isn't about how often we have the best hand, it's about how often we have the best hand when called.

And in MTT's when we can't reload our stack, the impact to our stack of being wrong is a factor as well.

When the value bet is thin, and the impact of being wrong grave (like here, going from 25bb to zero), passing the thin bet is better to protect your tournament life.


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Last edited by TheLangolier; Wed Jul 23, 2014 at 10:43 AM.. Reason: thread title was changed
 
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Tue Jul 22, 2014, 10:39 AM
(#4)
adikumar2010's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,094
Understood somehow even if I know he has QJ AA KK AQ. There is no point bluffing him coz they don't care if there is flush on the board. They have AA "how can I fold AA are you stupid..that's what they say". So don't try to bluff over pairs or TPTK, no matter how ugly the board is you can't Bluff.

So I really thought I have the best hand. But I just played like flush draw and thought he will call AJ QK QT.

Anyways if I check and he shows AJ KQ QT I will curse myself for losing value. It's a 1 rebuy tourny that's why I thought he might stack off light.
 
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Wed Jul 23, 2014, 06:15 AM
(#5)
adikumar2010's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,094
Ok this is for myself no need to reply.

 
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Wed Jul 23, 2014, 08:10 AM
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Fadyen's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 1,917
*Title changed to better reflect topic* - Fadyen



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