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1 dolar 180 man SNG - bad shove in this spot?

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1 dolar 180 man SNG - bad shove in this spot? - Fri Jul 25, 2014, 10:31 AM
(#1)
RedEyesX1's Avatar
Since: Jul 2014
Posts: 10


50 players left.
Villain stats: VP 38/ PR 23/ 3B 29 / 30 hands
My thoughts were that he is 3beting a lot so shoving here is profitable. Now I`m not so sure anymore.

Last edited by RedEyesX1; Fri Jul 25, 2014 at 10:45 AM..
 
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Fri Jul 25, 2014, 11:50 AM
(#2)
PlasticPearl's Avatar
Since: Jun 2014
Posts: 1,422
BronzeStar
I like either 4 betting all in or folding here, depending on the range your attribute to the villain. It might help to look at his stats for 3 betting from the BB, so you can see positionally if he is defending it a lot. I don't like calling because all you're leaving behind is a pot sized bet, and if you miss the flop (which you will 3:1) it will be hard to call the inevitable shove and you might be being pushed off the best hand. Tough one. I'd probably lean towards folding as you still have 16bb left, but I could see it either way.


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Fri Jul 25, 2014, 02:08 PM
(#3)
HokyPokyToo's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,901
** moved to Basic Poker Hand Discussions **


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Sun Jul 27, 2014, 07:14 PM
(#4)
kokomil's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 18
Its a fold man ... no matter his stats
 
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Sun Jul 27, 2014, 07:35 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,802
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Against a 29% 3-bet, ATs is a 58% favorite.. due to this, I'm shoving!

even if he's only playing 23% (his PFR), I'm a 55.8% favorite.

John (JWK24)


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Mon Jul 28, 2014, 09:29 AM
(#6)
De1Eva's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 3
Taking into account the ICM-conception (where each chip you win costs fewer than chip you lose) which is applied to tournaments I guess,It's not quite right to assess this hand only as the chance to win the pot.
If you have won this pot, you wouldn't won the tournament and the next same hand you are beaten with possibility 70% and next - 82.5%.
I guess it's fold.
 
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Mon Jul 28, 2014, 10:58 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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ICM is only going to apply around the bubble and FT... with this many left in the tourney, it's something that isn't really relevant.

John (JWK24)


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