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Observations after 3,000 hands

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Observations after 3,000 hands - Wed Jul 30, 2014, 06:49 PM
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PlasticPearl's Avatar
Since: Jun 2014
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Hey everyone, so I started playing cash for the first time this week and thought I would share how things are going, and what I observe my leaks to be. Thoughts are welcomed. Also share your leaks if it might make for good discussion!



1. I am used to seeing non-showdown results being the loser, and showdown results being the earner. For me it is the other way around, non-showdown results are my big winner. I am playing 2NL 6-max and I am a naturally aggressive player so I am making a lot of players fold. Feedback in the past was I was not value betting enough: maybe I have now gone too far the other way and I am making players fold too much.

2. This also tells me I need to make better judgments about hands I take to the river, and also about what I bets I should be calling on the river. Again, I have seen so many crazy players at this level that I think maybe I have assumed everyone is crazy and gone too far.

27.26bb/100 seems like a good start though. What do people think: am I right about my showdown/non-showdown being the wrong way around?


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Thu Jul 31, 2014, 01:39 AM
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TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PlasticPearl View Post
1. I am used to seeing non-showdown results being the loser, and showdown results being the earner. For me it is the other way around, non-showdown results are my big winner. I am playing 2NL 6-max and I am a naturally aggressive player so I am making a lot of players fold. Feedback in the past was I was not value betting enough: maybe I have now gone too far the other way and I am making players fold too much.
It's possible you are value betting too thinly now. The beauty of an analytical tool like this is that you can make this identification and start reviewing spots to see if it's true or not.

Quote:
What do people think: am I right about my showdown/non-showdown being the wrong way around?
There isn't really a right or wrong way around the red line/blue line, the key is that the green line is going in the right direction. 3K hands is a very small sample as far as results go, a very poor player could be up over 3K hands and likewise an excellent player could be down over the same. In other words, it's a good start, but do take it with a grain of salt and don't let up on the hard work either.


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Thu Jul 31, 2014, 06:01 AM
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Fadyen's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 1,917
The red and blue lines are usually the other way around but like Dave says, the green line is the important one.

The blue line being the one going down I think can mean a couple things; either you're value betting too thin or bluffing rivers in bad spots a bit too much, or you're paying off villains river bets a little too much. It's probably a mixture of all and quite hard to tell exactly without reviewing some hands but I can tell you with regard to paying villains off, at the micros they don't often bluff rivers.

Great start though, if you can keep that winrate up it's very impressive!



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Thu Jul 31, 2014, 01:03 PM
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PlasticPearl's Avatar
Since: Jun 2014
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Thanks guys for your comments, really useful direction. I've now played around 4,500 hands, and filtering on hands when I've seen the showdown, I have seen 256 rivers. My net loss there $9.07, or -177.15 bb/100, pretty grim. I've won 41.4% of showdowns. Narrowing it down further, on 43 rivers I was bet into, and I've lost $19.03 on those, or 2,212.79 bb/100. Yikes! And my bet was raised on 8 rivers, where I lost $6.01 or 3,756.25 bb/100 at showdown. So yes, I think it's fair to say I am calling too many river bets! A couple example hands below. Need to figure out now whether I am taking too many hands to the river, or whether my line is right except I should just be bet/folding the river...





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Thu Jul 31, 2014, 03:57 PM
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Fadyen's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
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Nice to see you're looking deeper into it. Looks like our ideas are headed in the right direction and you're finding some areas to work on.

In both the hands you posted we can see what I call the blessing/curse duality of the standard 2NL player. They play weak with wide ranges which can pay off big but it's also bad when they make a more disguised hand. In the first hand I love your line and bet sizes. When the villain makes that min raise on the turn it's one of those "oh ffs.." moments because he either has a monster or is spazzing. Because there's so much in the pot and your hand is so strong I think you do have to continue as you did on the off chance he's spazzing on this occasion, not much you can do. The second hand is similar but I think if I were playing I'd bet smaller on the turn to allow myself to get away from big river bets. You only have 2nd pair on a straightening board remember. From the hand he turns up with you can see you got most of it in way ahead though so perhaps I'm playing results here and he would bet worse.. I'll let someone more skilled than me take a look at that one.



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Sat Aug 02, 2014, 11:33 AM
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Sure enough over the next 3,000 hands I went on a big downswing. I ran rather card dry, and rather than be patient I tried to play my way out of it. The result was about $25 down, with the red 'non-showdown' line continuing to go up and the blue 'showdown' line plummeting to -$30. I looked back over the library of videos and found Felix's 'welcome to value town' series and Gareth's 'bet/fold FTW' series both extremely helpful. The lines are now headed in the right direction again!


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kk - Fri Aug 22, 2014, 05:53 PM
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rafamaricon's Avatar
Since: Jul 2014
Posts: 6
I belive you play nyou haND WELL BUT NAD RESULT
 
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Fri Aug 22, 2014, 10:29 PM
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TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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KK hand I think is a critical one to be folding on the turn if you want to beat micro-stakes. The villain's line is a line weak players take with monster hands, check/call flop, check/min-raise turn. We are rarely good here.

It's unlikely the villain is spazzing out with this line. It's possible, but I would expect more flop raises, or larger sizings if that were the case. Sometimes we will fold the best hand. I learned a long time ago that's ok, strong players sometimes fold the best hand. The modern way of saying it is that strong players recognize when their hand is not playing well against the villains range and get away from it without putting money in bad... even though that range undoubtedly includes some worse hands than ours.

JJ hand we c-bet 2/3rds pot and get called on K54r... again like above, we rate to be in bad shape vs. the villain's range here. Since there are minimal draws he's going to have here (mostly gut shots A2/A3 and 76s) his range is heavy in Kx+, which we are drawing to 2 outs to beat. I would generally check/fold the turn absent reads. Like above, sometimes we may fold the best hand... but sometimes the worst hand gets there. On the river, I can't see what we're beating that he bets now. I don't think we should be calling either of these rivers at the very least, if not getting away on the turns.

In both these hands there are villain reads possible that would make us compelled to continue putting money in these pots... reads we don't have here, but in general both situations in their own unique way are bad spots for us at the point we reach the turn action.


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Sat Aug 23, 2014, 01:51 AM
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ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
I did use a free hud for while and my red line goes downward and the blue line matched upwards. Then the wobbly green line break even and the other one +/- EV, tag got a bit lucky?

The tool didn't help, though betting lines do. An example would be - if you over aggressively 3-bet pre, or make big bets on the flop, or over bet on flop or turn. Everyone is folding and you miss value. I'm guessing with that betting line a red line looks good.

The opposite is harder, to get to the river without folding out worse hands - then where does the value come from? My brain just shuts down. I must be beat by now - did I miss something? Do I bet fold river or check call - just hate it.

Who said river decisions are easy? Or it's a game of incomplete information.


Edit: Sorry didn't read through all posts. Just looked at the graph $10 over the all-in EV orange line. Is that winning flips with all-in 4-bet hands?

Last edited by ForrestFive; Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 02:40 AM.. Reason: EV orange line
 

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