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25NL Zoom: Calling Turn Raise a Mistake?

25NL Zoom: Calling Turn Raise a Mistake? - Mon Aug 04, 2014, 03:12 PM
carlk73's Avatar
Since: Aug 2012
Posts: 82

Opponent is 21/17, 87% fold to steal (125 hands)

Is my cbet sizing too small? His fold to cbet is 67%.

I think my turn bet is too small? When he raises, I figure with my NFD and perhaps Aces good as well, I'm getting over 2/1 so I make the call. Also, if flush hits, he may have Kd and I could stack him.
Tue Aug 05, 2014, 12:10 AM
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi carl,

c-bet size is fine. When we get raised big on the turn, I think our ace is not usually good, we will need the 4th diamond, and will often find ourselves with 1 or 2 missing from our outs (2 if he's got a flush, and 1, the Kd, if he's got a set). So I would fold there as played.

I also don't think we should be betting the turn. Ask yourself what range of hands calls your flop bet. The most sensible hands are Kx, diamonds, 54s, and sets that are slowplaying. None of these hands are folding to your turn bet, and some of them might raise you, which isn't what we want when drawing to the nuts. I think given the strength of his continuing range after this turn card, our best option is to check and call on our nut draw.

Lastly, your thought that he may have the Kd and you can stack him if you river the flush... I'm not sure he is paying off a pot sized river bet even with the K, but certainly think if he has anything less it's hard for you to get action when you make the 4th diamond.

Be careful not to try and justify calls by counting action you probably won't get, and outs you probably don't have (like the ace... which is often not an out when we get raised on this turn card). This is a trap we all fall into from time to time, myself included, but it's one we must try and guard against as it leads to leaking chips.

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Tue Aug 05, 2014, 12:12 AM
rudar47's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 73
How i play this:
PRE: min raise your all range here, why? well as you see he fold 87% of time so you will take blinds a lot of time so risk less with weak hand, and when he 3bet you then you can easy call because you bet small and then 3bet is also smaller(maybe), second reason is C-bet also smaller and all of this saves you money when you don't hit. like in this hand
FLOP: Mandatory c-bet between 50-60% as you said he fold 67% so he will call us with 77-JJ plus all 6x Kx hands and OFC flush draws
TURN: when he calls our c bet we are finish with the hand if we don't hit Q,A or diamond. As played i think calling his raise is a mistake. Better line would be check raise the turn as this is a very strong line and he has to fold all pairs and with a king he have a hard time to call your raise. Put max pressure on your opponent in this situations and in long term you will see the profit
Tue Aug 05, 2014, 03:25 PM
carlk73's Avatar
Since: Aug 2012
Posts: 82
Good point about over-estimating outs & action that we'd get if we hit.

I agree that check-calling turn is a much better line. By betting here, we're risking having to fold to a large raise, which is a shame as we have the draw to the nut flush.

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