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10NL Regular Tables AK in 3bet pot vs loose player

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10NL Regular Tables AK in 3bet pot vs loose player - Wed Aug 06, 2014, 04:29 PM
(#1)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
Pre is standard.

Flop, I think is reasonable, I find it hard to see what I get value from at this stage and this guy doesn't appear to be folding many pairs, checking behind allows me to reassess.

Turn is interesting, it double pairs the board and I now beat everything apart from AA/KK which are no longer in this guys range in my estimation, and Jx and Qx of which there are some in his range.

I think turn is almost a must call.

River, nothing has changed, I still think I can be good here?

He's 32/19 over 96 hands and AGf of 2.0. Not really much to tell there but he isnt a nit and he isnt very passive.

Note: He limped Aces earlier in the session and I took most of his stack with 62o when I called him down having flopped two pair. He probably doesnt think much of me despite the fact that was his bad play.

 
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Thu Aug 07, 2014, 12:36 AM
(#2)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
I think you can find a fold otr. The J and Q actually interact very well with a 3b defending range.

That being said, given your stats/notes that he likes to get out of line, I think calling is also fine.
 
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Thu Aug 07, 2014, 12:41 PM
(#3)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Here are my notes on the hand
Against a 32/19 I really don't want to be 3betting too many wide hands BTN v CO.
My 3betting range could look something like this: {AA-TT, AK/AQ, A5s-A2s, (12-16 random combos of: 96s, 86s, 76s, 75s, 65s, 54s)}

That gives us around 90 starting combos OTF
We're cbetting for value with around 24 combos OTF: AA, KK, AQ
We're cbetting as bluff around 40 combos OTF: A5s-A2s, 96s, 86s, 76s, 75s, 65s, 54s (ALL except the spades) - so backdoor flush draws. I'd bet the AKs for bckdr FD + gutshot. We can consider betting the TT now or also keep them in our checking range (problem is it'll be hard to x/c with the TT so we are either hoping it gets checked down or we might have to let them go facing a bet.
We're checking back the rest of the spades and balancing with very strong slow played hands that we are crushing the board: JJ, QQ

What that means is that we can keep the 12 combos of AKo in our checking range

OTT we are left with 22 combos from our checking range.
We are calling with JJ(1) and QQ(1), folding the 7 combos of garbage, and left with 13 combos of AK. Folding the AK combos OTT means we would be folding way too much 90% folds to turn bets. So I'd call AK OTT.

We now face a river bet on a complete blank and we are left with 15 combos: AK(13), QQ(1), JJ(1)
We can call 60% of the time with AK and fold the other 40%, I guess
 
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Fri Aug 08, 2014, 01:19 AM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,499
(Head Trainer)
Doing a little range analytics, he's going to have a full house about a third of the time here, this board really does interact well with his 3b defending range. The other 2/3rds of the time he has air (TT-44 basically), but I don't think we get 2-balled much on the turn and river when we have all the nut-ted combos in our range. If he's fishy-out-of-line or bluff happy then we can feel fine about calling down as those pocket pairs are hands he probably feels compelled to bluff since they have zero showdown value. If he's not too much so, then folding is probably better... often times players will just give up the river after we don't fold turn.


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Fri Aug 08, 2014, 01:37 AM
(#5)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
I definitely felt that I had seen enough to warrant calling river. I couldn't tell you now what kind of stuff he had shown down with but in game I was thinking I was calling to a chop at worst, being good pretty often, and losing the times he just flops the world or close to it.
 
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Fri Aug 08, 2014, 09:42 AM
(#6)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,499
(Head Trainer)
I think we're chopping a lot is somewhat of a natural thought to have, but interestingly enough in the range analysis I did with flopzilla there were no chops. I started with villains PFR and then had him defend vs our 3b ~ 60% of the time, 4-betting for value with QQ+/AK and flatting the rest. It's never an exact science obv, but the only aces in that defending range were AQ/AJ. In reality he probably has a few, maybe some ATs and a few AKo he doesn't 4b, but with the bulk of his Ax defending range being AQ/AJ he rarely has chops. And since those have showdown value and bluff catching ability (vs. our TT type hands) he is probably not betting a chop hand otr much. All things considered, while it's natural to think we are calling for a chop, that's actually going to be a pretty rare outcome here.


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Fri Aug 08, 2014, 11:10 AM
(#7)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
I didn't say I thought I was chopping a lot, I thought I was chopping at worst, in game I snap called without giving it much thought because this guy seemed pretty silly with his lines ie. limping aces and calling down with top pair weak kicker and betting with air/marginal hands.

Still, it seems the call is neither a massively winning or losing one long term.
 
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Fri Aug 08, 2014, 11:16 AM
(#8)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,499
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I understand what you said. Thinking you are chopping at worst is a significant leak btw, you are going to be beat quite often.

I was just trying to help, I found the range analysis interesting that we are almost never chopping.


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Fri Aug 08, 2014, 12:38 PM
(#9)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
I understand what you said. Thinking you are chopping at worst is a significant leak btw, you are going to be beat quite often.

I was just trying to help, I found the range analysis interesting that we are almost never chopping.
I appreciate the help, I don't think I was critical of what you were saying, it just appeared to me that you thought I was calling more often than not to chop. Which wasn't the case. If thats not what you meant then there is no issue

My use of the english language at times lets me down, I'm aware that there are three outcomes on the hand, I can win/lose/draw. What I am trying, horribly it seems, to convey is that I would have been pretty shocked to have lost the hand but knew that it was totally possible, there was a chance of a chop (I accept that the software says what it says), and I was happy to call his river bet and felt confident I would be good.
 
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Fri Aug 08, 2014, 02:46 PM
(#10)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,499
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I didn't take it as critical, more as defensive of your play.

I guess my point is, you shouldn't be shocked if you lose this hand. I'm pretty sure that's going to be the most frequent outcome the way it played out (that doesn't mean calling is wrong, given the price we're getting we could lose 7/10 times on this river call and still see it showing a nice profit).

Regarding a chop, I just found it interesting that the range analytic I did showed no chops in his range, as I think that's a common element to many player's call decision, that they are chopping sometimes. It certainly might cross my mind in game.


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Sat Aug 09, 2014, 07:24 AM
(#11)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post

I guess my point is, you shouldn't be shocked if you lose this hand. I'm pretty sure that's going to be the most frequent outcome the way it played out (that doesn't mean calling is wrong, given the price we're getting we could lose 7/10 times on this river call and still see it showing a nice profit).
I guess the feeling that I was ahead in the hand just came from game flow. The guy was doing fairly random stuff for no reason. Limping AA OOP SBvBB, blasting off with air, calling TPWK and the like. This was just over a 96 hand sample too. I'm not sure if it is as a result of predominantly playing Zoom games but being at a regular table for a change I felt I got to know the players at the table extremely quickly and how likely they were to be competent or not.

In this hand, he turned up with K8o, I honestly wasn't surprised.

I appreciate all the comments, from everyone, thanks guys
 

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