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better luck next time ?

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better luck next time ? - Fri Aug 08, 2014, 04:12 PM
(#1)
donna1906's Avatar
Since: Apr 2014
Posts: 256


I should know better then go all in against bigger stacks.
 
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Mon Aug 11, 2014, 03:35 PM
(#2)
donna1906's Avatar
Since: Apr 2014
Posts: 256


yeah I should know better.
 
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Mon Aug 11, 2014, 03:40 PM
(#3)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
With AT and 2bb you should be calling anyone.

Last hand is super unfortunate but you will win 3/4 times. This was the other time.
 
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Tue Aug 12, 2014, 06:32 AM
(#4)
donna1906's Avatar
Since: Apr 2014
Posts: 256
Quote:
Originally Posted by bhoylegend View Post
With AT and 2bb you should be calling anyone.

Last hand is super unfortunate but you will win 3/4 times. This was the other time.
Not me , but the hand will win 3/4 times. That's where it goes wrong. Because there are 3 persons before me that win with that hand and I am the 4 th that loses. And so the statistics are accurate again,

I have a different theory about these hands and the way it develops.

Once upon a time I had a real strong feeling that the software was the blame of me getting beaten. But then suddenly it struck me that it wasn't that.

Poker is a game of skill and luck. You can't win only on skill you also need a bit of luck. The luck of getting the right cards at the right moment for example.
Getting AA at the start of a tournament is nice , but if you are the BB and everybody folds towards you, you could as well have had 72 o.

I don't know what the percentages is between skill and luck needed in poker but I guess it's 75% skill and 25% luck? Maybe I am wrong but anyway lets assume it is true.

In real life there is also a thing called luck. And I think there are different kinds of luck. You can have luck for example in love, work or health and combinations are also a possibility.
You can be lucky of getting a nice job at the right moment and meeting there the love of your life. But you can also be very lucky at one thing and very unlucky at another. Getting a nice tax refund but then you car breaks down and there goes the money. It is a bit like in that great song " Ironic " by Alanis Morissette , the lyrics are really recognizable to many I guess.
One thing I am very lucky with is getting a parking place. When I go to the shops I never have to drive for hours in a circle to find one. On the other hand I am very unlucky with games. I always loose with monopoly, risk and others. I can play bingo for hours , not that I do because I hate it , and never get my card full.
Also lotteries are no luck for me. I never have won a real nice prize,others buy one ticket and hit the jackpot.

Lol , reading it back it may look like I have a terrible life. But that's not true at all. I have my share of luck in a lot of ways. I have a very nice job , and I am very lucky in love and most of all I have my good health and that's also a great luck and gift. I have seen many examples otherwise.

But to get back to poker. As I have stated I think that poker is a game of skill and luck. Now I won't claim that my skills are great but I am still learning and trying to improve them. But I think I just don't have the luck for poker. And that would be logical as I lack having luck at games and lotteries.

And the software has been so kind to point it out too. For example the first hand with A10o against A8s. My losing here isn't the point. I know I can lose here a lot of times . It is the way that I lose.
First of all , why is it always that when I am in this spot and get a hand like that , the one with the most chips on the table also gets a nice hand.
Now if he just would hit an 8 on the flop. Or to make it a little more exciting a flush. But now het hits a straight on the river. In other words the software is telling me " dream on , you can never win against his luck ".
The second hand is similar , maybe a little less dramatic. Again it is the one with the most chips who has the luck.

All good things come in three? Ok another example



One thing I know is that villain 7 has the same luck factor as me. And the good thing about this is that Villain 3 probably has to drive in circles for hours to find a parking place.

With this lack of having luck in poker I now know better how to play. But being human I will make the same mistakes again and go all in with my AA and KK . But at least I know why it happens and can leave with a smile when I am knocked out and drive to the shops and park easily right in front of the shop while I see someone else driving in circles.
 
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Wed Aug 13, 2014, 06:22 AM
(#5)
brettnz's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 377
I wonder if you ,and others confuse luck with entiltlement ? I know I have lost some $ in poker recently for this very reason.Im in the middle of writing a blog on this very subject.I will link to it when Ive finished I hope you find it helpful .Good Luck


Double Bracelet Winner

 
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Wed Aug 13, 2014, 03:26 PM
(#6)
donna1906's Avatar
Since: Apr 2014
Posts: 256
I am not sure that I understand what you mean by entitlement. If you mean that I think that I am entitled to win in certain situations the answer is no. But I am looking forward to read your blog.
 
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Thu Aug 14, 2014, 07:11 AM
(#7)
donna1906's Avatar
Since: Apr 2014
Posts: 256
This hand was played at a open poker school tournament and shows again how some get a big stack.




I know that Villian 7 is a very very loose player and he has had some kind of history with villain 4. So him raising on the BB of V 4 isn't necessary a sign of a very good hand. I have to raise him and the only way I might let him give up the hand after I thought V 4 would , is to go all in. I guess if V 4 had folded V 7 also would have folded. But now he wants to see who has the longest( in boy term speaking), he or V 4 , and I am stuck in the middle.

And once again the biggest stack is the luckiest one.
 
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Thu Aug 14, 2014, 07:17 AM
(#8)
royalraise85's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 26,019
(Community Coordinator)
These type of calls are very common in freerolls, actually KJo was one of the better hands I've seen calling in freerools.

I've seen big stack bullies call with a lot worse, it's the nature of freerolls.

Raiser


Moderator

Bracelet Winner


 
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Thu Aug 14, 2014, 11:02 AM
(#9)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,788
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
In the QQ hand.. against these two opps' hands, QQ is actually a favorite to LOSE the hand as it will only win 47% of the time.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Thu Aug 14, 2014, 02:22 PM
(#10)
donna1906's Avatar
Since: Apr 2014
Posts: 256
Ty John .

But hasn't the player with KJo 21% and the one with A8s 31%.So why is QQ with 47 % the favourite to lose against these opps. Or are my calculations wrong? Please correct me if I am.
 
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Thu Aug 14, 2014, 02:38 PM
(#11)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,788
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to be a favorite to win a hand, the hand equity has to be over 50%.

QQ will win more often than either opp... but combined, it will lose more than it wins.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Thu Aug 14, 2014, 04:12 PM
(#12)
donna1906's Avatar
Since: Apr 2014
Posts: 256
Combined it is 53 against 47. But is this really how you must look at it?
Because combine mine with V7 gives 68 against 32 ,and me with V4 gives 79 against 21.
 
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Thu Aug 14, 2014, 04:56 PM
(#13)
ketchup143's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 279
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by donna1906 View Post
Not me , but the hand will win 3/4 times. That's where it goes wrong. Because there are 3 persons before me that win with that hand and I am the 4 th that loses. And so the statistics are accurate again,

I have a different theory about these hands and the way it develops.

Once upon a time I had a real strong feeling that the software was the blame of me getting beaten. But then suddenly it struck me that it wasn't that.

Poker is a game of skill and luck. You can't win only on skill you also need a bit of luck. The luck of getting the right cards at the right moment for example.
Getting AA at the start of a tournament is nice , but if you are the BB and everybody folds towards you, you could as well have had 72 o.

I don't know what the percentages is between skill and luck needed in poker but I guess it's 75% skill and 25% luck? Maybe I am wrong but anyway lets assume it is true.

In real life there is also a thing called luck. And I think there are different kinds of luck. You can have luck for example in love, work or health and combinations are also a possibility.
You can be lucky of getting a nice job at the right moment and meeting there the love of your life. But you can also be very lucky at one thing and very unlucky at another. Getting a nice tax refund but then you car breaks down and there goes the money. It is a bit like in that great song " Ironic " by Alanis Morissette , the lyrics are really recognizable to many I guess.
One thing I am very lucky with is getting a parking place. When I go to the shops I never have to drive for hours in a circle to find one. On the other hand I am very unlucky with games. I always loose with monopoly, risk and others. I can play bingo for hours , not that I do because I hate it , and never get my card full.
Also lotteries are no luck for me. I never have won a real nice prize,others buy one ticket and hit the jackpot.

Lol , reading it back it may look like I have a terrible life. But that's not true at all. I have my share of luck in a lot of ways. I have a very nice job , and I am very lucky in love and most of all I have my good health and that's also a great luck and gift. I have seen many examples otherwise.

But to get back to poker. As I have stated I think that poker is a game of skill and luck. Now I won't claim that my skills are great but I am still learning and trying to improve them. But I think I just don't have the luck for poker. And that would be logical as I lack having luck at games and lotteries.

And the software has been so kind to point it out too. For example the first hand with A10o against A8s. My losing here isn't the point. I know I can lose here a lot of times . It is the way that I lose.
First of all , why is it always that when I am in this spot and get a hand like that , the one with the most chips on the table also gets a nice hand.
Now if he just would hit an 8 on the flop. Or to make it a little more exciting a flush. But now het hits a straight on the river. In other words the software is telling me " dream on , you can never win against his luck ".
The second hand is similar , maybe a little less dramatic. Again it is the one with the most chips who has the luck.

All good things come in three? Ok another example



One thing I know is that villain 7 has the same luck factor as me. And the good thing about this is that Villain 3 probably has to drive in circles for hours to find a parking place.

With this lack of having luck in poker I now know better how to play. But being human I will make the same mistakes again and go all in with my AA and KK . But at least I know why it happens and can leave with a smile when I am knocked out and drive to the shops and park easily right in front of the shop while I see someone else driving in circles.
I don't mean to sound mean or overly critical, but a lot of these examples of luck in life don't really apply to poker. I have had the exact same thoughts as you, where I've felt like I'm just not lucky enough at poker to succeed. even when I get sucked out on, I will oftentimes repeat aloud to myself "I'm not a lucky person, I'm not a lucky person..." But you just have to keep focusing on getting the money in good. trust me, after enough hands, u WILL see different sized stacks have hands (not just the big stack getting a good hand at the same time as u), and u WILL see situations where U suck out on people the same way they've sucked out on u. u're right, it's the nature of the game. but it's best to never focus on these things. in real life, that is impossible; we all dwell on how well we run. but successful players are NOT results oriented. that means u ONLY focus on decisions and not results. as for the percentage of luck vs. skill needed to win, again, I don't think that's a healthy way to look at the game. I could try to estimate what that would be for u, but it would depend on a whole bunch of factors; and in the end, it doesn't really help u win the game b/c ur not supposed to focus on luck.
 
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better lluck next time? - Thu Aug 14, 2014, 05:55 PM
(#14)
v438cs's Avatar
Since: Jul 2014
Posts: 26
BronzeStar
If it was'nt for bad luck.............I'd have no luck at all
 
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Fri Aug 15, 2014, 10:04 AM
(#15)
donna1906's Avatar
Since: Apr 2014
Posts: 256
Quote:
Originally Posted by ketchup143 View Post
I don't mean to sound mean or overly critical, but a lot of these examples of luck in life don't really apply to poker. I have had the exact same thoughts as you, where I've felt like I'm just not lucky enough at poker to succeed. even when I get sucked out on, I will oftentimes repeat aloud to myself "I'm not a lucky person, I'm not a lucky person..." But you just have to keep focusing on getting the money in good. trust me, after enough hands, u WILL see different sized stacks have hands (not just the big stack getting a good hand at the same time as u), and u WILL see situations where U suck out on people the same way they've sucked out on u. u're right, it's the nature of the game. but it's best to never focus on these things. in real life, that is impossible; we all dwell on how well we run. but successful players are NOT results oriented. that means u ONLY focus on decisions and not results. as for the percentage of luck vs. skill needed to win, again, I don't think that's a healthy way to look at the game. I could try to estimate what that would be for u, but it would depend on a whole bunch of factors; and in the end, it doesn't really help u win the game b/c ur not supposed to focus on luck.

You don't sound mean or over critical at all. And don't take all I wrote too serious.
I play just for fun and not in the first place to win. And I am too , lets put it friendly , lazy ( instead of too dumb) to constantly calculate my odds and outs and pay attention too how everyone is playing. But I try and sometimes succeed playing well within my limitations. I never need to deposit , score at least 20 fpp a month if I want to.
But the luck thing I really believe in. Maybe not as black and white as I wrote but still there is some truth in it for me.
I have another example for you about having luck at the right moment. I just played this hand in the premier league.
V8 raises and I re raise and he calls. Maybe my re raise was to small? Because he just calls I put him on a pair or A Q , A J . After his check/raise after the flop I thought he had hit a set or he had paired with the board and had A kicker , so A JJ or A99. Maybe I should have folded after the flop , after his check raise. But I didn't
But still he had the luck after calling my raise that he hit one of the possible 2 jacks that still were in the deck amongst all other 32 cards that would have made me win the hand.




And the first hand I played after the one here above.



At least he didn't have a big stack before.

Last edited by donna1906; Fri Aug 15, 2014 at 01:22 PM..
 
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Tue Dec 02, 2014, 05:09 PM
(#16)
ketchup143's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 279
BronzeStar
terribly late reply, I know...I just saw this today but in the last hand here, ur being results oriented. shove for 3x the pot and hope ur hand is good...I guess it's luck in that u happened to make the right decision...but affirming that ur decision was correct solely by seeing what the opp had is not the right approach.
 

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