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5NL Top two vs turn shove

5NL Top two vs turn shove - Tue Aug 12, 2014, 02:11 PM
PokerAmigo77's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 50
Hi, Im usually playing higher, but doing challenge with friends. That hand made me and the whole group think hard.

SB is nit, playing 17/13 over 150 hands. 3bet 4(2/50), Squeeze 0, AF 3.

My thoughts.. We should fold flop because he never bluffs there and his value range is crushing us..
Tue Aug 12, 2014, 05:48 PM
Tyirl's Avatar
Since: Dec 2012
Posts: 389
I'm not really a hand analyzer, but what the hell, I will put my two cents in :p

When I first looked at the hand and saw the villains stats I thought it might be a fold pre-flop, but I played with flopzilla a bit and decided that calling pre is fine. His 4% 3bet range is basically JJ+ and AQ+, and your AKs is a slight favorite pre-flop vs that range at about 53% to 47%.

On the flop you are crushing the entire range at 78% to 22%, and I think you are correct to bet out when he checks it to you. Then when it folds back to the pre-flop 3bet guy and he check/raises you after your solid bet, and with this depth of money, that's really rough, lol.

Like you said, it's really unlikely that he just decided to bluff there with a hand like JJ or QQ. I doubt that he decides to do that with AQ either, he would probably just call. So, lets say that narrows his range down to AK/AKs and KK+. Your AKs is well behind that range, and a 66% chance that you are just going to tie.

I think that you are right, and folding to the raise on the flop in this exact scenario is probably a good idea, although it would be really hard to do.

Also, just as an aside, I thought it was kind of interesting that the turn is a J of spades to go with the flop 5 of spades so if he happens to have exactly AK of spades then he would be freerolling to a spade flush on the river.

Tue Aug 12, 2014, 06:38 PM
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
I think the fold is fine. He's a nit with 3bets, he's never taking this turn action with QQ, so either he is spazzzing out with TT-22, your calling to a chop while possibly being freerolled as Tyirl mentions above, or you are absolutely crushed. I'd want QTs to be happy calling against this guy.
Tue Aug 12, 2014, 08:15 PM
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
very interesting hand

but sometimes I don't trust HUD so I'll call him so be it.

I already have AK there's AK on board so if he has AA and KK then it's just a cooler. I don't have the fold in me here.

if he's free rolling with AsKs so be it again.

I just can't fold this one but of course I'm more on the wrong side than on the right side cause I'm bad in cash game
Wed Aug 13, 2014, 04:12 AM
Tyirl's Avatar
Since: Dec 2012
Posts: 389
Btw, I guess it should be mentioned that if you can leave all of the AQ combos in his range then the equity is significantly different. If his range on the flop is AQ+, KK+ then your equity on the flop is about 70% to 30%, and if it goes to showdown you would be winning about 57% while the range is only winning about 14% and you chop about 28%. With no AQ in his range on the flop, so his range would be AK/AKs and KK+, then at showdown you have about 1% chance to win (if an A comes and he has KK) and his range has about 33% chance to win and there is a 66% chance of a chop.

Do you think he wants to play for 200BB effective stacks with AQ on that board? I dunno, maybe I guess, since it's 5nl, but nothing really indicates that.

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