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25NL FR ZOOM: nut flush OTR, how much to bet?

25NL FR ZOOM: nut flush OTR, how much to bet? - Tue Aug 12, 2014, 10:46 PM
dog-en-saka's Avatar
Since: Jul 2014
Posts: 22
CO plays 13/0/0 after 16 hands.

What would be the best bet size OTR? First I assumed he has Kx or Jx and thought pot-bet would be too large. My mini-reraise is intended to induce further reraise, but I feel it was not good. 3bet shove seems still too large for me, since both players are deep-stacked...?

PokerStars Zoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com/

Button ($22.99)
Hero (SB) ($47.13)
BB ($24.18)
UTG ($37.80)
UTG+1 ($40.44)
MP1 ($8.25)
MP2 ($13.57)
MP3 ($25.17)
CO ($46.79)

Preflop: Hero is SB with As, 10s
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.75, 3 folds, CO calls $0.75, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.65, 1 fold

Flop: ($2.50) 2d, 4s, Kc (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, CO checks

Turn: ($2.50) Js (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, CO bets $1.19, Hero calls $1.19, 1 fold

River: ($4.88) 3s (2 players)
Hero bets $2.25, CO raises to $4.50, Hero raises to $6.75, CO calls $2.25
Wed Aug 13, 2014, 07:26 AM
dog-en-saka's Avatar
Since: Jul 2014
Posts: 22
After posting this, I started to think that 3b shove is good. Firstly I wanted to get called by sets or weak flush etc, but if he had the 2nd or 3rd nut and called my shove it would be just sweet, and could compensate the folds of other weaker hands in long term...
Wed Aug 13, 2014, 11:46 AM
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,473
(Head Trainer)
Hi dog,

I think 3b shoving is too heavy handed considering we get to the river with only $4.88 in the pot and $44.85 behind. If the villain was a huge fish that's more attractive, but the progression of 2.25 > 4.50 > 44.85 is normally going to scare out all non flushes and even a number of smaller and medium size flushes. He has to have specifically the king high flush to pay this, and even still it's not certain.

The min-3b though definitely leaves value on the table imo. I would like to raise to about $15, which I think will provide a nice balance of still get called by all flushes and some strong non-flush hands, and leaves the door open to a reraise by his stronger flushes that will commit his stack (plus an illusion of fold equity on a $45 shove if he talks himself into a wild bluff).

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