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10NL zoom - AA in position bet 2 streets 70% They have us beat or no price to draw?

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10NL zoom - AA in position bet 2 streets 70% They have us beat or no price to draw? - Thu Aug 14, 2014, 01:18 AM
(#1)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
A little conundrum. With a big pair betting 2 streets, flop and turn with the larger bet size, do we have a big problem? The villain may have drawn without a direct odds price. Then lead river (original implied odds), so pot/jam river and our hand may be bluffed? All we see is the run out, call call no raise, until it's too late.

I'm not good at the maths of betting lines. This example is "in position". Do we bet flop, check behind turn and decide - if checked to us - thin value 1 pair on the river.

 
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Thu Aug 14, 2014, 01:42 AM
(#2)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
I'd top up my stack to begin with.

I don't understand why you didn't bet river. If he was calling with a J he is never folding river, at least most 10NL regs aren't, so I think we have 3streets of value unless he tells us otherwise by folding or raising.

I don't really understand what you are saying in your blurb, especially 'until it's too late' as we are in position, we know he has played it passively on all streets. Just bet this river, I can see no reason no to.
 
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Thu Aug 14, 2014, 03:01 AM
(#3)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Because it's JJ TT or whatever, JT 66 33. Villain just passively waiting for the 2nd or 3rd barrel and smug. Easy and safe showdown call, or do they raise? Then I'm screwed because I don't know "blah blah blurb polarized merge"?

Topping up my stack has no effect what so ever unless a random stack-off hand happens and they cover my $8.85 88bb. When I played 1/2 stack the biggest problem was raising and facing a 3bet, over 3x my raise, so no implied odds to even set mine.

I normally leave a cash table below 70bb, as my 10bb-20bb shove/fold in SNGs needs work.
 
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Thu Aug 14, 2014, 03:13 AM
(#4)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
I just bet really small vs an unknown hoping to get a thin call, it all depends on the player if he is a nit his range in SB is gonna be really tight and its hard to get called especially when we block top pair alot.

Like here my SB flat range is really exploitable more so vs earlier position opens so i will be folding a ton on the river so if i was v betting vs myself i would check it back but i probably fold to much facing bets anyway it just i don't give players at these stakes much credit for bluffing much so i kind of make the mistake that if im not calling here then villain isnt and i then miss value bets myself.
 
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Thu Aug 14, 2014, 05:28 AM
(#5)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
Quote:
Originally Posted by ForrestFive View Post

Topping up my stack has no effect what so ever unless a random stack-off hand happens......
That's the point though.

Against KK you're getting it in pre with the nuts for at least 100bb unless they are short, but most people are 100bb. Biggest pot I ever won was that exact situation, AAvKK for a 375bb pot at 25NL. If you allow your stack to dwindle then you limit what you can win.

As for the hand though, as Dave might say, your looking for monsters under the bed. He's done nothing to suggest he has the hands you suggest he might. Bet/Fold on river depending on sizings.
 
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Thu Aug 14, 2014, 11:53 AM
(#6)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
Hi Forrest,

Again I agree with bhoy here... this seems like a river value bet spot for sure, it's not really close. With all draws missing, we will get called by Jx and Tx and all his showdown value bluff catchers. Maybe not vs. a nit, but absent reads we should be betting here. I would go with about half the pot.

I see no reason to be worried about a check/raise... if we get check/raised who cares? If the villain has a hand that needs to bluff to win, he's already passed on every opportunity to bluff, so a c/r bluff suddenly isn't likely. And c/r bluffing the river isn't a play in a lot of players arsenals anyway, especially at 10nl. So if we get check/raised we can just comfortably fold.

Bet for value/fold to a raise. We will get called by worse 1 pair hands significantly more frequently than called by better or raised imo.




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Thu Aug 14, 2014, 12:41 PM
(#7)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Dave if we get to the river with these hands for value 6 AA 6 KK 6 QQ 3 JJ 3 66 3 TT 12 AJ 9 JT = 48 value combos and then bet half pot on the river we would need to be bluffing 25% of the time for villain to call with a pair?

If thats right then i cant find 12 bluffs i would want to bet in my CO off range because if i DB a gutter on the turn which i more than likely wont i would want to bet it on the river but if i expect to get snapped by Tx a hand like AQ would have SDV vs his draw range that missed so i wouldn't want to barrel that but a hand like 87 can get some hands to fold that have me beat.

So i feel like if i somehow managed to find 12 bluffs on the river i would be getting called to much because they wouldn't be folding enough on the river anyway.

Im not concerned about having the right amount of bluffs because i doubt this guy cares or having a balanced range but when im the one calling down in villains seat i fold which seems like common sense to me if i don't think players will be bluffing enough and they expect me to call with Tx.

Does that make sense for me to be folding those one pair hands there, im not folding because im a nit or anything and im scared of big hands or getting raised on the river its just because i don't see enough bluffs in there range to 3 barrel if i have that math right it is anyway.

Hope that makes sense.
 
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Thu Aug 14, 2014, 03:18 PM
(#8)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by mike2198 View Post
Dave if we get to the river with these hands for value 6 AA 6 KK 6 QQ 3 JJ 3 66 3 TT 12 AJ 9 JT = 48 value combos and then bet half pot on the river we would need to be bluffing 25% of the time for villain to call with a pair?
Hi Mike,

25% to be unexploitable, making the villain indifferent to bluff catching. I don't think we need to worry much about being balanced here in this spot though.

There's plenty of busted draws in our CO range to choose from for bluffs. Both spades and straights. AsKs, AsQs, KsQs, As9s, As8s, KQ. I think I would chose the KQ hands first, as if we do not block the nut flush draw, then he can have it which beats king high but will fold to the 3rd barrel. Any draw worse than K high too, for the same reason. The ace high hands we can show down instead of bluff as they beat all his busted draws. KQ alone though is 16 combos, even if we leave out KsQs since it blocks so many flush draws, there's still 15 to choose from plus we can start with any worse draws or frisky hands with no sdv as well.


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Thu Aug 14, 2014, 03:28 PM
(#9)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Hmm maybe im not barreling enough if you get to the river with KQ, think il study some more before i get back to the tables.
 

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