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$22 Saturday Countdown 120 mins Time Tournament, Close shove !

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$22 Saturday Countdown 120 mins Time Tournament, Close shove ! - Sat Aug 23, 2014, 02:34 PM
(#1)
adikumar2010's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,094
It's $22 Saturday Countdown 120 mins Time Tournament and around 3 levels were left so 45mins of game to play (15mins blind level) which means I can't just play big hands as there is too much time left.

I was worried if I can shove this hand as it was a UTG raise, but I decided to take my chances against UTG player.

I can tell you one thing which I don't know if it's right or wrong. If the button player had not flatted I would not be going all-in and just calling his raise to set mine as I was still getting exactly 1:15 odds. But once the button player flatted there was more dead money in the pot which enticed me to shove as reward was more if I take down dead money as button player is loose player.

Is it still a bad shove over UTG raise in this situation and is my reasoning correct to go all-in coz of more dead money?

I get trapped like this very often because someone is slowplaying AA KK like this, QQ I was not expecting. Plus HUD is spoiling my game when I see he is playing 44/22 I just shoved as I thought he is playing junk hands.

* I was only worried about UTG player.



STATS :
 
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Sat Aug 23, 2014, 05:53 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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Hi Adikumar2010!

With TT, I get an UTG raise and a flat from the button. Regardless of the flat or not, I absolutely cannot call here as I do not have enough chips to setmine. To setmine, I need 15x the bet of 600 in everyone’s stack and I’m nowhere near 9k chips and neither is the UTG player. I only have 12.5x the bet in my stack and UTG only has 10x. Due to this, I need to raise or fold.

Now, I need to see if I can raise or have to fold. The UTG player has a PFR of 11% and the button is wider, but there is only 9 hands on them, so this may or may not be correct. Due to this, I’m going to go with my default ranges (tight for UTG and loose for the button, 10% and 30% accordingly). However, this can be altered depending on what the opp showed in previous hands (not provided). When I put these ranges into pokerstove, my TT has 38.8% equity if both call and 51.7% if the button folds. Both of these give me +EV plays as I’m the favorite against UTG and if both play, while I will be a favorite to lose the hand (will lose 61.2% of the time), it is absolutely a +EV play. Due to this, I’m snap-shoving here and it’s not even close as absolute worst case, I’m +5.2%EV even if they call every single time. When fold equity is added in, this is a huge +EV play.

Just because there is more dead money in the pot, does not make a play a shove. What determines this is whether my hand equity against the opp’s ranges plus any fold equity is higher than what my pot equity is. I could have a ton of chips in the middle, but if it’s not a +EV shove, then I don’t want to make it.

When playing and looking at HUD numbers, we always need to take into account the sample size. If it’s small, then these numbers may not be relevant and when not relevant, we need to take into account what we see the opps do and use more of a default range instead of the HUD numbers.

We need to take into account every player left to act too, not just one particular one that we’re targeting. Also, just because someone’s playing loose, they’re just as entitled to pick up a big hand as we are. We need to take their whole range into consideration, but they can be at the top of it. What I want to do is that after seeing a player do something like this, I need to make a note that they will flat big pairs in position, so that I’m aware of it the next time that I play against them.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)

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Sat Aug 23, 2014, 06:03 PM
(#3)
adikumar2010's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,094
JWK I had to call 450 as I was on SB.

450 X 15 = 6750

and UTG player had 6804 to start hand with? Isn't this how we calculate?

I thought we can set-mine here.
 
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Sat Aug 23, 2014, 06:06 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
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It needs to be 15 times the amount of the total bet.

John (JWK24)


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Sat Aug 23, 2014, 06:12 PM
(#5)
adikumar2010's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,094
Ok thanks, I thought amount left to call. You told me never to do FPS but when other people do it profitably I get tilted like in this hand he trapped me with QQ, earlier I saw some player flatting with AA to a UTG+1 raise and he was on button. I had AQs from SB with 15BB I shove and lose that hand.
 
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Sat Aug 23, 2014, 06:24 PM
(#6)
JWK24's Avatar
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The people that want to do FPS.. will win sometimes, but they will not be long-term winning players... they'll always lose in the long run.

John (JWK24)


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Sat Dec 13, 2014, 04:24 PM
(#7)
adikumar2010's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,094
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
With TT, I get an UTG raise and a flat from the button. Regardless of the flat or not, I absolutely cannot call here as I do not have enough chips to setmine. To setmine, I need 15x the bet of 600 in everyone’s stack and I’m nowhere near 9k chips and neither is the UTG player. I only have 12.5x the bet in my stack and UTG only has 10x. Due to this, I need to raise or fold.
It should be 450 X 15 not 600 X 15. and I can call here as 450 X 15 = 6750 and UTG player start the hand with 6804 chips.
 
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Sat Dec 13, 2014, 05:47 PM
(#8)
Tonk Shuffle's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 618
Okay Adi, I found the thread,

While I agree with John's decision to ship it here - and unfortunately we are trapped - I am also confused about the implied odds here.

Sorry but I can't exactly remember how you put the question in class. This comment may not be for the same reason that you asked. (Rather than worrying about hypotheticals, because in reality the button did come along for the ride.) The initial raiser is the effect stack to us, and we are the effective stack to the button.

I thought we needed to be able to win at least 22.5bb to profitably set mine from the small blind against a 2X open. If John is indicating that it should be 30bb, I will defer to his judgement. Its just another leak in my game that probably needs fixing.

TT is a quirky hand. In cash games against loose button openers, I sometimes think is more profitable not to 3bet it in the small blind. Rather, I sometimes try call stationing to get it to showdown on favourable boards, if a set does not hit.

I actually like the buttons' play. I some times do this with AA KK if I have a strong read that a player in the blinds will squeeze.

Sorry I couldn't be of more help.

Last edited by Tonk Shuffle; Sat Dec 13, 2014 at 06:02 PM..
 
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Sat Dec 13, 2014, 06:41 PM
(#9)
Tyirl's Avatar
Since: Dec 2012
Posts: 389
I'm hesitant to post because I don't want to step on toes, but technically the way I understand how to calculate whether or not it's "ok" to set mine then it would be the amount you have to call (In this case 450) times 15. I'm just going by what I have learned in live training, etc. Some people say to use a different multiplier.

In this actual hand I also agree with everyone else that it's better to just shove as you did. I think there is a good amount of fold equity, plus you still have the BB to act behind you. Personally, I don't really like set mining with sub 30BB stacks very much, but maybe if we were sitting on the BB instead of the SB I would.
 
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Sat Dec 13, 2014, 06:44 PM
(#10)
adikumar2010's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,094
But if I knew that the UTG guy is a nit, then I can't shove TT happily. In that case I have to either call or fold. Calling is fine here coz I have proper odds to set-mine from what I learned in live training.

Fold is also fine if UTG is ultra-nit.
 

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