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$11 Super Stack, ICM shove?

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$11 Super Stack, ICM shove? - Sun Aug 24, 2014, 07:53 AM
(#1)
adikumar2010's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,094
This is $11 Super Stack event, with 12mins blind level. I am on FT. Can you plz tell me if this is ICM shove? with 6 players left to act



STATS :
 
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Sun Aug 24, 2014, 10:12 AM
(#2)
Profess Awe's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,579
Someone with an ICM calculator handy can answer your question. Generally speaking our ICM considerations at a final table are at their lowest when we have the shortest stack - there is nothing to be gained from taking low variance lines waiting for the shortie to bust.
If UTG had 3bb left this would swing this from an easy shove in my eyes to an ICM-related fold. That's not the case. The hand is in my shoving range and as shortest with 8 left I have no interest in nitting up.
 
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Sun Aug 24, 2014, 11:58 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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Hi Adikumar2010!

With KJs at the final table and short, this is definitely a spot for an ICM calc to see if I can shove.

When I put this situation into ICMizer, I get a shove range of 77+,AJ+,KQs. KJs is not in this range, so I need to fold and look for a better spot.

Now, if I was looking at this from just a chip aspect, then KJs IS within the shove range for 10BB at this position, as that range goes down to K9s for suited kings.

IMO, since this is the FT, where we need to look more at ICM, this is a fold. If this was not at the final table, I'm snap-shoving it.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)

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Sun Aug 24, 2014, 01:12 PM
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TheLangolier's Avatar
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When you click the little green ICM button on your replayer's HUD, what did it tell you?


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Sun Aug 24, 2014, 01:18 PM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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FWIW, I agree with Profess Awe, and would have shoved here as well. John's ICM calc suggests it's very close (AJo/KQs are shoves so KJs must be very slighly -tEV in his run) but I think if players are giving us action tighter than normal it won't take much to expand our profitable range to include this hand. And I think we have a chip dynamic here where that is likely to be the case... with the chip leader in the BB I think the medium stacks between us will be reluctant to put themselves at risk as wide as they probably should, so in a sense the threat of the BB's stack protects us from some of the fringe hands that would happily give our 10bb's action should no such threat exist, tightening up ranges behind us.


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Sun Aug 24, 2014, 01:19 PM
(#6)
adikumar2010's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,094
It doesnt work ever, I always get this error even though I am on FT

 
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Sun Aug 24, 2014, 01:22 PM
(#7)
adikumar2010's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,094
I don't like to shove KJs KQs on FT mainly coz we will always get action from better hands like AT+ KQ+ 22+. So these KJs QJs KQ are just pure stealing hands and when called will always get lose.

If I shove KJs here we can't expect them to call me me with worst like QJ KT JT. That's why I hate these steal hands.
 
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Sun Aug 24, 2014, 01:52 PM
(#8)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
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Quote:
Originally Posted by adikumar2010 View Post
I don't like to shove KJs KQs on FT mainly coz we will always get action from better hands like AT+ KQ+ 22+. So these KJs QJs KQ are just pure stealing hands and when called will always get lose.

If I shove KJs here we can't expect them to call me me with worst like QJ KT JT. That's why I hate these steal hands.
That's why it's a steal shove and not a value shove. The range you cited btw is 12%, which means a villain will be folding 88% of the time, and we have 40% equity against that range when called. Any worse hands we add into the mix only increase our equity.


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Mon Aug 25, 2014, 07:04 AM
(#9)
andrewj50050's Avatar
Since: Nov 2010
Posts: 508
100% jam time here. players in 6th and 7th in chips are even likely to fold marginally better hands, such as kq and A10 and some PP as the shortst stack you got nothing to lose. Don't wait and let the blinds go through you. Maintain enough stack that can put big dent in other player's stacks :-)
 
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Tue Aug 26, 2014, 05:14 AM
(#10)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
This is the range my Holdem Resources Calculator gives:

 
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Tue Aug 26, 2014, 01:56 PM
(#11)
TheLangolier's Avatar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spand42 View Post
This is the range my Holdem Resources Calculator gives:
You're missing UTG (it's not us, we're UTG+1) and the BB.


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Tue Aug 26, 2014, 02:39 PM
(#12)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
You're missing UTG (it's not us, we're UTG+1)
D'oh!

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
and the BB.
It doesn't show anything for the BB in this chart as if it's folded round to him, obviously he can't shove. If I was to have one of the other players shoving, it would show what the BB's calling range should be.

So in this corrected image, this is what our shoving ranges "should" be and the "correct" reshove or calling ranges from the other positions.

 
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Tue Aug 26, 2014, 03:00 PM
(#13)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spand42 View Post
It doesn't show anything for the BB in this chart as if it's folded round to him, obviously he can't shove.
Got ya... I think I was misled because of UTG also missing. BB has a lot of chips that need to be accounted for in any ICM calc.

It seems like if everyone is playing optimal ranges, it's a close fold. I suspect the MP players are all going to play tighter than normal though, so I still favor a shove.


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Wed Aug 27, 2014, 08:19 AM
(#14)
DrDonkin's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 874
With the HRC range if you take .15% edge its a clear fold and only 99+ AQo+ are good enough to shove.

However we are the short stack with the blinds about to run through us and in my opinion need to take a chance to chip up with a hand that can play well and KJs fits that fine.

I was watching adi along with some others in the skype group and thought that the mistakes were made on the last 2 table and really think he missed some spots to to chip up. When you go into a final table short it is really in the lap of the gods, maybe one of the trainers could review the last 3 or so tables ? and make a training class.
 
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Wed Aug 27, 2014, 08:53 AM
(#15)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
This is based on ICM - so a .15% edge is far from a clear fold, it just means it's pretty marginal.

In fact going back to what Dave mentioned earlier, do we really think that most villains in the Big Blind will call with A8s or ATo for example? Probably not. Depending on how wide we think people are calling, we can adjust these ranges to be tighter or wider to exploit the villains' tendencies.
 
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Sun Sep 14, 2014, 08:06 AM
(#16)
Nataraj1's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 573
Quote:
Originally Posted by adikumar2010 View Post
It doesnt work ever, I always get this error even though I am on FT

Have you contacted PT support? They'd normally answer very fast. Mine works on the FT.

On the other hand, I wouldn't rely too much on ICM calcs except for minding the gap concept in bubble situations. At my last FT, I had two AK folds: one was clearly a fold and the PT ICM calc showed it as a fold too. The other one was clearly a fold as well, but the PT ICM calc showed it as a PUSH. I earned more than $100 just doing these two folds, and no calculation was needed here, just observing stack sizes, bet action and prize structure.
 

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