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chasing...

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chasing... - Thu Aug 28, 2014, 09:16 AM
(#1)
HarmlessFish's Avatar
Since: Aug 2014
Posts: 99

Yet another chase after a draw.
I needed a T or Q: 6 outs: 6.83 - 1 draw odds
On the flop I get 4.4 - 1 pot odds
There are two opponents and two streets ahead so I mumble something about implied odds and click Call.
On the turn I get 5.2 - 1 pot odds so it's getting better.
On the river I get 7.2 - 1, so I call based on "bluff odds" (odds that villain is bluffing, just made that up).

Is this justifiable?
Where should I have stopped?
Am I a calling station?

- H
P.S of course i only figured out all these numbers in retrospect, in real-time i just acted on gross estimation
 
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Thu Aug 28, 2014, 09:32 AM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,826
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
I'm not sure how you came up with these numbers.. but they're not what I get. This is chasing because we do NOT have the correct odds to continue in the hand. I only want to continue when I have the correct odds and expect to gain chips.

On the flop I need to call 12 cents into a pot that will be 64 cents (18.75%). I have 4 Q's as outs and possibly 2 tens (but I'd seriously discount the 10's as someone else will probably get a straight. 4 outs is only worth 8% and even if the 10's are good, 6 outs is only worth 12%. Since my pot equity (18.75%) is higher than my hand equity (8%).... this is a clear fold.

On the turn, I'd have to call 20 cents into a pot that will be $1.24 (16.1%). My hand is still only worth 8%... so this is another clear fold as I expect to LOSE 8.1% every time I call.

On the river, I have to call 20 cents into $1.65.. so I need the opp to have a worse hand about 1 in every 8 times. With 3 broadway cards on the board, I'm basically never going to see this many hands worse than me... so it's another clear fold.

This IS a good example of chasing (calling bets when I don't have the correct odds to do so)... something that poker players want to avoid... unless they like losing money.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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