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2nl cash table, AKo All-In vs. Maniac

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2nl cash table, AKo All-In vs. Maniac - Mon Sep 01, 2014, 05:50 PM
(#1)
AJ_Orion's Avatar
Since: Jul 2014
Posts: 31
Second hand of the night, same table, same maniac.

MP3 - 88/40/3.0



I had seen him go all-in with AQo and also seen him shove, but not get called, at least one other time. This is still within about 40 hands at the table.

Was it right to snap call him off here. Is AKo going to come out on top against this player in the long run?

I really felt he suckered out, but odds calculator says he is 52.11% favourite, not a big edge but still winning.

Should I take in to consideration his range here because although he got lucky with the shove this time, next time when he does it with AQo he will be dominated and I'll pick up +EV in the long run against these kind of players?


AJ_Orion
 
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Fri Sep 05, 2014, 08:44 PM
(#2)
Tyirl's Avatar
Since: Dec 2012
Posts: 389
Quote:
Originally Posted by AJ_Orion View Post
Was it right to snap call him off here?
I would say yes. Once I have 3bet this guy to that size (correct size btw in my opinion) then I wouldn't want to be folding pre-flop. If I thought I didn't want to get it all in pre with him, then I think it's an option to just call his open even though it's an annoying 6x sizing, and play a pot in position with AKo. I would probably be losing my stack vs this guy when we get that flop if I did call pre (unless we were really deep I guess).


Quote:
Originally Posted by AJ_Orion View Post
Is AKo going to come out on top against this player in the long run?

I pulled out a range equity calculator, and looked at several ranges vs AKo pre-flop. If he had a shoving range of TT+, AQ+ then the AKo equity is about 49%. If he was shoving 22+, and only AQ+, then the AKo equity is only about 47%, but that's about as bad as it gets. Once you start adding in more and more non-pocket pair hands then, as you can probably guess, the AKo just gets better and better vs the range. If he was shoving 88+, AJ+ or 22+, AT+ then the AKo equity is 52.5% vs both of those ranges. If he was shoving 88+, AT+ then AKo equity is at 55.5%. If you had AKs then add about 2% to each of the equity amounts vs the different ranges.

To answer your question about whether or not AKo would be +EV to get it all in a ton of times vs this player in the long run, then you would need to know just how loose he really is shoving. Players like this might even shove some hand like T8o sometimes just because he "had a feeling", but mostly those equity ranges above suggest to me that it's not really hugely +EV to be calling off with AKo. It's a different story if you can be the one shoving with the AKo and add in some fold equity. It's all just sort of an academic exercise anyways as you aren't going to get to do this that many times with this guy because he will either get better or get broke.

One other thing about this hand specifically that I was thinking about is that this player 4bet shoves on you. I wonder if he is really going to do that with a hand like QQ+, or is he going to 4bet something smaller than all in with those hands? I don't know, but if you take QQ+ out of those ranges then you start to get AKo having equities of 57%+.


T

Last edited by Tyirl; Fri Sep 05, 2014 at 10:09 PM..
 
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Fri Sep 05, 2014, 11:55 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
(Super-Moderator)
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I agree with Tyirl. Once I 3-bet a maniac with AK, if they want to come over the top, I'm snap-calling them.

When looking at equities, I need to take the entire range of the opp into account, not just their particular hand. Against an 80% range, my AK is a 2-1 favorite.... why I'm snap-calling this opp.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Sat Sep 06, 2014, 04:45 PM
(#4)
rkleefstra's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 2,328
Same here, instant call !
 

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