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44's Float My Boat...But Villain Sinks It

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44's Float My Boat...But Villain Sinks It - Mon Sep 01, 2014, 06:07 PM
(#1)
AJ_Orion's Avatar
Since: Jul 2014
Posts: 31
Last one for tonight, kids. I hope it's ok to be posting up this many in one go.

Villain - 20/16/1.6



I have no idea. Cooler? Should I be thinking AQ when he shoves?

My thought process was something like this:
- I'll let him draw out and hit something, then jam.
- He's beat me to it, ok.
- I'm thinking now that because I checked the flop and turn, he doesn't expect 4's or a Queen so he's hit an Ace or King, maybe he's on AK for nuts 2-pair and thinks I'm trying to steal the pot with the pot bet on the river.
- Maybe he had a Q all along...?
- I'm not expecting a Queen, he hasn't bet.
- I Call.
- Oh dear.
- Nice hand.

Any advice?


AJ_Orion
 
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Fri Sep 05, 2014, 09:35 PM
(#2)
Tyirl's Avatar
Since: Dec 2012
Posts: 389
Checking on the flop seems like a good idea. It would be pretty often that he hasn't hit this flop at all, and he will just fold to a c-bet a lot of the time. If he does have some kind of Q then you will be able to get value anyways.

Could lead the turn. He might have some smaller A that he paired up. I don't really like checking a monster hand all the way to the river and then just trying to get some small value.

I would like to say that I could fold on that river shove, but I don't think I would be. I would be curious to know what his 3bet stat is. It's likely that he would have 3bet QQ, KK, or AA pre. Maybe he is 3betting with AQ too at least sometimes (apparently not). I guess that his slow play and then huge over pot sized raise would get me, because I'm only thinking that KQ or sometimes AQ would be beating me, and I don't really think that he is checking flop and turn with any Q. I don't like his shove. It wouldn't be getting any value from any marginal type showdown hands that we might have like medium pocket pairs, or a Kx that we bet on the river. It worked out, so good for him I guess ... Time to put a note on this guy, lol.


T
 
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Sat Sep 06, 2014, 12:03 AM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,802
(Super-Moderator)
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I'm leading the flop and also the turn. There's a flush draw out there and the opp can have Qx too. The only time that I can check is if there is not a single card in the deck that can beat me. If I check and they outdraw me... it's my own fault that I lose.

I'm betting 1/2 pot on the flop, 1/2 pot on the turn and I'm more than happy to get it in on the river, as by betting, I'm setting up a river shove.

Yes, it's unfortunate that they got there, but since I let them get there by checking... it's my own fault.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Sat Sep 06, 2014, 04:42 PM
(#4)
rkleefstra's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 2,328
I would bet the flop for sure. He will fold a big part of his range, but any Qx will give you massive value.
Also pockets like 66+ will call because it's a flop you would cbet often and is hard to hit.

The range he folds, will never give you much value anyway so there is no need to try to keep them in.

The rest of the hand is just a cooler, **deleted inappropriate expression JWK24**

Last edited by JWK24; Sun Sep 07, 2014 at 02:35 AM..
 

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