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Big $5.50 Tournemant, River decison?

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Big $5.50 Tournemant, River decison? - Tue Sep 02, 2014, 10:27 AM
(#1)
adikumar2010's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,094
It is Big $5.50 with 10min regular blind structure.

Should I check the turn?
Should I call/fold the river bet?



STATS :


I am getting 30% pot odds to call on river and my hand will be best 32% of the time. I am not sure if I put the opponents hand range correct but I gave him all the legit hands and no total air hands.


Last edited by adikumar2010; Tue Sep 02, 2014 at 10:43 AM..
 
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Tue Sep 02, 2014, 05:38 PM
(#2)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
For me the river is a pretty clear fold, mainly due to the bet size and the horrible turn card. I don't think he makes this sizing with worse two pairs because we can have loads of stronger hands in our range that he has to worry about.

The turn play is probably the more interesting spot.

When he calls flop, his calling range might be something like:

Qx - AQ, KQ, QJ, Q9, Q8 - 38 combos
Pairs - JJ (if this doesn't 3Bet pre) - 6 combos
Tx - AT, KT, JT, T9, T8 - 57 combos
4x - A4, K4, 64, 54 - 45 combos
Straight draws - AJ, KJ, J9, - 42 combos
Flush draws - Kc9c, Kc8c, Jc8c, 9c8c, 9c7c, 8c7c, 7c6c, 6c5c - 7 combos

Total - 195 combos

I think he would like check/raise two pair+ and huge combo draws like KcJc and Jc9c. He might raise some of the hands I put in his calling range but it's a starting point at least.

Let's see how the Ac turn affects villains flop calling range now.

Flush - Kc9c, Kc8c, Jc8c, 9c8c, 9c7c, 8c7c, 7c6c, 6c5c - 7 combos
Straight - KJ - 15 combos
Two pair - AQ, AT, A4 - 16 combos
Ax - AJ - 8 combos
Qx + gutter - KQ, QJ - 16 combos
Tx + Gutter - KT, JT - 16 combos
Qx - Q9, Q8 - 16 combos
Tx - T9, T8 - 16 combos
4x - K4, 64, 54 - 36 combos
Straight draws - J9 - 16 combos

Out of these, villain will likely only give us action vs a turn bet with AJ or better (46 combos)

If he calls with worse hands with Kc/Jc in them, that's another 12 combos taking it up to 58.

Out of these 58 combos, 22 have us crushed, we chop with 4 and are favourite vs 32.

Villain would just check/fold his other 137 combos.

So when we bet the turn, villain's going to be folding ~70% of the time. The rest of the time we'll get action from worse hands about 55% of the time, which seems like we should value bet the turn.

However, we will likely get raised by all of villain's better holdings i.e. flushes and straights, so we'd have to get it in way behind vs these holdings or fold, not realising our equity.

So I think this spot is close but it probably depends whether you'll think villain will call with his gutter+flush draws or call twice with worse two pairs. If the answer to either of these is no, I think you should check.

If the answer to both of these is yes, I'd be willing to make a value bet on the turn and decide whether to make another value bet or not on the river.

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