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hands needed vs unknown to turn profit?

hands needed vs unknown to turn profit? - Thu Sep 04, 2014, 12:03 PM
FiveAPM's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1
how many would u need on average? heads-up for instance. if you keep making better decisions, and he keeps making worst of it, at what hand number would it start to converge?
Thu Sep 04, 2014, 12:08 PM
wiltshireman's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 1,570
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Thu Sep 04, 2014, 02:07 PM
sparkes25's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 645
It is very hard to answer this question.

If you are making the correct plays vs a player that plays badly then you could start making a profit from the first hand, but you could also get a run of a few thousand hands that you play correct but do not win.

You can get all the money in with a 80% chance of winning 20 times and not win a pot if your running bad, but you could also win all 20 if your running hot.

Many winning players can go months with out having a winning month to show for it.

If you are making the correct plays you should make money in the long run tho, this could be 50,000+ hands
Thu Sep 04, 2014, 11:45 PM
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,353
About 350.

To be serious, it depends on how big your edge is. It starts converging on hand #1, but it could take well over 1000 hands before a skill advantage results in net profit, and that's in a HU game where you're playing nearly every hand. In 6-max or full ring, you'd need to be dealt many thousands of hands to be able to say with 90% confidence that you're better than someone else, based on the profit.

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