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NL25 ZOOM FR: KK in MP1, MP3 calls, tough river spot

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NL25 ZOOM FR: KK in MP1, MP3 calls, tough river spot - Fri Sep 05, 2014, 02:15 AM
(#1)
mz4a's Avatar
Since: Sep 2013
Posts: 6
no history with villain (not seen crazy stuff or something like this) and only a sample size of 18 Hands -> therefore completly unknown

But has a Stack over 130BB and is disabled from search feature -> so assuming he is a kind of regular

I am deep stacked (about 190BB) and open from MP1 with KK to 3BB and get called by villain in MP3 ( about 130BB)
Flop ist 2s9c4s
So my plan is to bet/bet/bet if no Spade is coming and when a spade hits a will reavulate and most likely switch to XC

I make a contibet on the flop of $1,1 in a pot from $1,85 and get called.
In this spot my toughts where -> he will call every flush draw, any pair, every weak 9x, maybe something like 45, excluding a "2" in his preflop call range, and excluding QQ+ -> which he would have 3betted most of the time, and every two face cards (overs)

Turn 6d -> seems like a brick for me because it doesn´t improve his calling range in my opinion very likely

so i bet $2,20 in a pot of $4,05 as value bet
get called

my tougths of his range are exactly the same as on the flop
(weaker pairs, weak 9x, flush draws ...)

river is the 3d and seems safe for my line bet/bet/bet because it doesnt improve his calling range neither

So i deciede to bet thin for value to extract money from weak 9x, maybe he will find a call with his busted A high flush draw
an bet $3,30 in a pot of $8,45

he tanks for about 10 seconds and raises to $11 ...

So i hva to pay $ 6,70 to win a pot of $22,75 and get about 3:1

My thoughts are here he maybe he is overplaying A9x ... he ist turning a busted draw in a bluff because i betted thin ... the 3 doesn´t improve my preceived range from him beacuse which 3 can he call preflop an C/C ??? ...
a set of 99 ? no, i dont think - he would have raised the bet on the flop or on the turn ... to protect against a flush and to build a big pot for his monster ...

so i am facing a river raise after a C/C line an this is normaly a very strong hand ...

so i would kindly ask: what is the tought process of a professional player in this spot to be able to make a decission ...




PokerStars Zoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.com

Button ($11.21)
SB ($26.38)
BB ($77.67)
UTG ($71.72)
UTG+1 ($26.10)
Hero (MP1) ($47.43)
MP2 ($68.03)
MP3 ($33.12)
CO ($26.01)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K, K
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, 1 fold, MP3 calls $0.75, 4 folds

Flop: ($1.85) 2, 9, 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.10, MP3 calls $1.10

Turn: ($4.05) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.20, MP3 calls $2.20

River: ($8.45) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $3.30, MP3 raises to $11
 
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Fri Sep 05, 2014, 09:44 AM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi mz4a,

Welcome to the hand analysis forum!

I think this is a pretty clear fold imo. It's possible we are getting bluffed once in a while but probably not much... when we've 3-balled it should be pretty clear we have mostly big pairs here, so he should be expecting to get looked up not having any read on us.

I think you're finding this more difficult because of the feeling that his range hasn't improved, but I think the reality is he can have all the nut-ted hands in his range here when he's flatting your preflop open this deep. All the sets are possible (no great reason to raise before the river in position), as are a number of straights... legit ways he can hold a 5: 55, 45s, 65s, 75s, As5s... so when you start factoring all these in, there's a lot of combos of better hands out there. Hands like 9x are very likely calling or folding to the river barrel, not raising (for the same reason a bluff isn't likely). So I think it's fair to give him credit for the strength this line represents and lay our hand down.





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Fri Sep 05, 2014, 10:23 AM
(#3)
HokyPokyToo's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,901
Hi mz4a,

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