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Basic Mathematics

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Basic Mathematics - Mon Sep 08, 2014, 05:53 AM
(#1)
lummy8's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 91
Goodday all,



1. does the pre flop stats of 16.83% for pair of deuces indicates the probability of winning until the river i.e. flopping minimum a set of 2 by the river or at flop?

2. does flop stats of 8.38% for pair of deuces indicates the probability of winning until the river or just the turn?

Thank you
 
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Mon Sep 08, 2014, 06:03 AM
(#2)
WeaselBasher's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 1,138
hi there, they are "at the moment" figures, i.e. your chances of winning the hand would increase if the Turn was a deuce, and the River one too!!!!!

Good Luck and its not a silly question!
 
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Mon Sep 08, 2014, 06:23 AM
(#3)
lummy8's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by WeaselBasher View Post
hi there, it is "at the moment", i.e. your chances of winning the hand would increase if the Turn was a deuce, and the River one too!!!!!
Thanks for your reply I am a beginner and thanks for your patience.

1. meaning it is the probability of winning by the river isn't?

2. let say i decided to chase my 2 outer in a heads up with 100bb pre flop for both of us. he OR 3BB pre flop and i called. i miss the 2 outer at flop, and he bets half pot, and i called. i miss the turn too and he bets half pot again of which i called. At the river, i have already invested 3BB pre flop + 3BB flop + 6BB turn = 12BB. Let say i hit my set at the river, how much minimum should i bet so that i am not -EV long run under such situation? 0 EV is fine because we can get VIP points i.e. i am asking the minimum bet so that i am breaking even.

Or put in another perspective, what is the maximum BB that i can put in by the river so that i can still break even?

I understand that some advice 10-20 times stack ratio because some will not pay you off i.e. some opponents can read that you river your set but lets assume whenever i hit a set my opponent will not fold his TPTK or his pre flop pair. (or is this assumption not important?)

Thanks a lot.
 
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Mon Sep 08, 2014, 06:42 AM
(#4)
lummy8's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 91
The last diagram shows 4.55% for pair of deuces, a 20 to 1 underdog, so i should not pay more than 5BB by the river? Given we are 100bb deep pre flop and 100bb divided by 20 is 5bb.
 
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Mon Sep 08, 2014, 09:52 AM
(#5)
WeaselBasher's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 1,138
ok Lummy, I dont know about this 5bb betting etc, best to ask one of the Hand Analizers like JWK for the official answer, as to me it depends on how the betting was and the pot size etc, I suppose this is Cash Game?? (if it is I haven't a clue__) This is a bit too theoretical for me...

But the percentage we were talking about earlier Lummy, is the percentage at the Flop (8.3%), -not the river, as you wont know what the percentage is until the next two cards are dealt.- so your chances AT THE MOMENT (i.e. the Flop) are 8% of winning the hand, or 8% favourite. IF the TURN was a 2, your chances would be greater. Pokerstove and a calculator on this site too if you want to look at the stats.

So to try and clarify, the percentage is shown at that particular stage of the Hand, i.e. the Flop. and it will change as the next card is dealt.

I hope that helps, but ask a Trainer.......
 
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Mon Sep 08, 2014, 01:20 PM
(#6)
rolo834's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,425
Im not a trainer but in your first pic 22 will win about 1 in 8 times if you see all 5 cards.its actually 1 in 7.5 i think(It changes slightly depending if your suits are sam eas AA hand suits)

ok in your next pic the onl way of you winning is hitting a 2 and it states 8.38%

I use the rule of 2 and 4

What this means is for just to hit a 2 on turn you tiem syour number of outs(2) by 2=4%

If they go allin you want to use turn and river so you tiems number of outs(still 2 lol) by 4=8%

This is a rough approximation as you can see you have exact number of 8.38% but 8% is close enough

Now going deeper a lot of what you are asking is quite complaicated an dbeyond me but it has to do with implied odds

Tomak eit clearer for you I gues swhat im saying is if you are certain if you hit 2 on river he will pay you off no matter what bet size then just move allin....versus tighter playersor good players they will not stack off so you will have to choose your bet sizing better

Next tiem it crops up put it in a hand analysis question and they will help you

Also as weasal said download pokerstove and test it out

Also do the course as im sure the 2 and 4 rule be in there (to prove I didnt just make it up lol)
 
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Mon Sep 08, 2014, 01:45 PM
(#7)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,836
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For a draw to be profitable, you need to pay a pot equity less than what the hand equity is.

If a hand has 8% equity, then I cannot call a bet over 8% of what will be in the pot after I put my chips in, I will expect to LOSE chips if I do so.

Chasing is when the pot equity is higher, and will be where you will lose chips on average each and every time.. and needs to be avoided.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



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Mon Sep 08, 2014, 10:53 PM
(#8)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,359
Quote:
Originally Posted by lummy8 View Post
2. let say i decided to chase my 2 outer in a heads up with 100bb pre flop for both of us.
Let's just say that's a really bad idea.

With small pairs, just follow a simple rule: "No set, no bet" or "Didn't spike, so take a hike".

If you couldn't flop a set when there are three cards on the table, you're even less likely to hit it on the turn or the river.

Most of the time, you shouldn't even chase gutshot draws (4 outs) if a villain bets half pot or more. It's suicidal to chase 2-outers.


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Mon Sep 22, 2014, 03:43 PM
(#9)
shreef's Avatar
Since: Sep 2014
Posts: 22
Is there somewhere that lists the sort of numbers put up in the original post? For example, 82.6% to win with a pair of aces against a pair of twos. Can I find a list, somewhere, which also gives the odds for a pair of threes against a pair of twos, and so on?
 
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Mon Sep 22, 2014, 06:37 PM
(#10)
Fishwick's Avatar
Since: Feb 2014
Posts: 55
In general: * link removed as per TOS *
Specific hands: * link removed as per TOS * or download Poker Stove as you can do odds against ranges too.

Last edited by HokyPokyToo; Mon Sep 22, 2014 at 09:53 PM..
 
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Wed Sep 24, 2014, 12:59 AM
(#11)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,359
Quote:
Originally Posted by shreef View Post
Is there somewhere that lists the sort of numbers put up in the original post? For example, 82.6% to win with a pair of aces against a pair of twos. Can I find a list, somewhere, which also gives the odds for a pair of threes against a pair of twos, and so on?
It varies somewhat according to how connected the cards are (can they make or block straights) and what suits they are, but the main ones approximate as follows:

Overpair vs underpair (e.g. AA vs KK): 80/20
2 connected overcards vs a pair (e.g. JTs vs 88): 50/50
1 over and 1 under vs two in between (e.g. AJ v KQ): 60/40
2 overs vs 2 unders (e.g. AK vs 87): 65/35
Dominated hand (e.g. AK vs AQ): 75/25

You can test these out by using the PSO odds calculator, or by downloading Equilab or Pokerstove.


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