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check raising

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check raising - Thu Sep 11, 2014, 01:52 PM
(#1)
christel41's Avatar
Since: Sep 2014
Posts: 2
Micro stakes zoom, check raising flops to around 2.5 he cnet of villain.
Does anyone know how to work out the math of making this a mathematically profitable play in the long run?

i.e the villain fold to cr on flop % and how often it must work on pot odds?

Im talking mainly about button vs blind action




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Last edited by royalraise85; Thu Sep 11, 2014 at 04:21 PM..
 
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Thu Sep 11, 2014, 05:46 PM
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ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,359
It's impossible to calculate the total EV when there are still two cards to come, when there's a decent possibility that villain calls, as the community cards could fall in your favour and give you the best hand.

That said, if you check-raise bluff with virtually zero equity (let's say you have 32o on TT9) then your EV relies almost solely on fold equity. That is to say, you always lose if villain calls or re-raises, and you only win when villain folds.

The equation for that is the same as it is for bluffing with air at any point in a hand.

EV = [How much you win * how often you win] - [How much you lose * how often you lose]
EV = [Size of pot before your bet * fold equity] - [Size of your bet * (100%-fold equity)]

Let's assume the pot is 7bb and villain c-bets 4bb. That makes the pot 11bb. If you raise 2.5x villain's bet, you're raising to 10bb. You're literally risking 10bb to win 11bb.

EV = [11bb * FE%] - [10bb * (100%-FE%)]
You find the break even point by setting EV = 0, and solving for FE.

0 = (11* FE%) - 10 - (10 * FE%)
10 = 11*FE% - 10*FE%
FE% = 10/(11+10)
FE% = 10/21
FE% = 47.6%

i.e. With these bet sizes, you need villain to fold 47.6% of the time for your check-raise to be immediately profitable.

A quicker way to see this for some people is to just say
Fold equity required = bet size/(pot size + betsize) (Note: this is the same calculation you could use for c-betting with total air)
With the numbers provided above FE = 10/(11+10)


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cr - Fri Sep 12, 2014, 05:22 AM
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christel41's Avatar
Since: Sep 2014
Posts: 2
Thanks a lot i couldn't quite figure out the exact formula/equation in which to relate FE and the villains equity in the pot.

Would you say 47% is bad enough pot odds for villain to have in order to call a CR?

Assuming on button he/she is opening very wide like say 60% of hands maybe more.

Im not a massive fan of CRing but when i was trying some things out i noticed i got a fold enough times to make it seem somewhat profitable. Not a massive sample though
 
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Fri Sep 12, 2014, 09:52 AM
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Fadyen's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 1,917
Hi christel41,

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