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16NL 76s in 3bet pot a little deep vs T/aggro player

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16NL 76s in 3bet pot a little deep vs T/aggro player - Wed Sep 17, 2014, 04:29 PM
(#1)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
I will keep this fairly short and sweet rather than the usual rambling mess.

Villain is 25/19 with a 7.2% 3bet over 83 opportunities. 1.7 AGf post flop.

I make a loose call pre as we are a little deeper than usual with about 150bb and I am in position.

I bet/call flop because I am happy to take it down there if he was 3betting light and giving up and when he raises I think I have plenty of equity against most of his hands, I'm pretty dead to a higher flush of course, but cest la vie.

Turn, I think, is a good card for me. It removes TT from his 3bet range pre-flop, unless he now has quads, and while he can 3bet 88 and maybe 22 I still think I am ok to continue on this card.

River isn't wonderful, as I think he can play JJ like this, but given he can still have worse hands and some bluffs I make the call.

Was I right? How can I play it better?

 
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Wed Sep 17, 2014, 07:05 PM
(#2)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Think about this guys SB 3Bet Range... It's probably higher than his overall 7.2%...
It's probably more like 66+, A2s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, ATo+, KJo+ (16-17%) Especially vs. your BTN open.

Personally, I would have shoved OTT. I actually do not like that this player ships it OTR. As played I actually think we need to make a disciplined fold OTR.
 
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Wed Sep 17, 2014, 10:52 PM
(#3)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
I rip turn.

River is kinda dicey because we look a lot like what we have. We also have a lot of full houses we can defend with here so a 7 high flush isn't really that far up in our range.

That being said we are getting a sick price so i don't fault you for calling.

Pre is good, flop is good.
 
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Thu Sep 18, 2014, 05:27 AM
(#4)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
Thanks, guys, second hand in a row on different forums I have be en advised to shove turn. Guess I need to work on spotting opportunities to do that.

On river, I didn't stall at all before making call, it's not the top of my range but I still thought I was ahead of enough.
 
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Thu Sep 18, 2014, 09:12 AM
(#5)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
What do you think his range is on the river?
 
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Thu Sep 18, 2014, 10:30 AM
(#6)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
Hey guys,

FWIW I agree with everyone else on ripping the turn as played.

Preflop is good, but I somewhat disagree with betting the flop tbh... I think our fold equity is very small here, most of the time villain is not checking to give up, they're going to check/call a lot and check/raise sometimes. And if he is truly checking to give up, we have a high % chance of taking this down on a later street anyway in position. Additionally when we check back the flop and do make one of our draws, we will tend to get less credit for having it since most people expect us to semi-bluff the flop with a draw when checked to. I don't mind betting some draws but I would rather do it with big cards like AKs (assuming we decided 4b/5b/6b ripping AK pre with 150bbs is not profitable, which it's not likely to be at 10nl vs a TAG) or KQs, where we can get check/called by worse in the case of AK when AQ/AJ c/c's us, and where we have overcards to the pairs that check/call us.


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Thu Sep 18, 2014, 10:36 AM
(#7)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by dirt eh View Post
Think about this guys SB 3Bet Range... It's probably higher than his overall 7.2%...
It's probably more like 66+, A2s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, ATo+, KJo+ (16-17%) Especially vs. your BTN open.
16-17% is a somewhat egregious assumption, I'd caution against making such assumptions without reads. My 3B is 7% and about 13% vs. button opens. I play with tag regs who range between 7%/7% (no adjustment at all basically) to 7%/18% (out of line v. button opens). Without any read it's fair to assume some adjustment, but I would hedge it to like 10% so we're not making significant mistakes vs. the tighter 3b ranges. In lower stakes, 10nl and down certainly, hedging it even more conservatively makes sense to me too.


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Thu Sep 18, 2014, 11:24 AM
(#8)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
Quote:
Originally Posted by birdayy View Post
What do you think his range is on the river?
When he shoves river?

I can't remember the exact flop now but I think it was T82 with two clubs. Something like that anyway. I obviously have to give him some credit for having the *****d combos there with TT/88 up there and bottom set also a possibility. I also can't discount the overpairs to the board, better flush draws, or two pair combos. I also have to allow for bluffs.

Turn I think removes TT from his likely starting hands, but Tx remains with face card kickers most likely. 88/22 (Or whatever bottom set was). He can have nut flushes, relatively good flushes. I can't totally discount combos of light 3bets that have turned houses either. Overpairs remain. There is still bluffs.

So, for the river, I think he can have the full houses mentioned above, overpairs, better flushes with AcKc, AcQc, KcJc KcQc being the most likely although if I've got the board wrong that may be off. AT, KT, with QT and JT also possible given the turn. If I were at home I would stick these and probably some others in equilab. He doesn't just have the nuts though, there was plenty of spew and overly aggressive play on Tuesday, so with some reasonable non *****d hands in there and the fact he was not nitty, and I didn't believe him, I made the call.

I'll still stick this in equilab at some point when I get home to come up with more definitive combos.

Just a point on the 3 bet % stats, I'm nearly certain he was more active from the button than the SB, not massively so but it's a limited sample (Better than at Zoom though).
 
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Thu Sep 18, 2014, 12:15 PM
(#9)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
I'd remove any naked Tx combos and stick to overpairs, some fds, 2 pairs and sets. Think river will end up being a fold.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Preflop is good, but I somewhat disagree with betting the flop tbh... I think our fold equity is very small here, most of the time villain is not checking to give up, they're going to check/call a lot and check/raise sometimes. And if he is truly checking to give up, we have a high % chance of taking this down on a later street anyway in position. Additionally when we check back the flop and do make one of our draws, we will tend to get less credit for having it since most people expect us to semi-bluff the flop with a draw when checked to. I don't mind betting some draws but I would rather do it with big cards like AKs (assuming we decided 4b/5b/6b ripping AK pre with 150bbs is not profitable, which it's not likely to be at 10nl vs a TAG) or KQs, where we can get check/called by worse in the case of AK when AQ/AJ c/c's us, and where we have overcards to the pairs that check/call us.
I actually think the opposite. I think we should bet our draws with minimal SDV and check those with (ie hard card flush draws). We have a range advantage on this board so we should probably take advantage of it.
 
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Thu Sep 18, 2014, 01:30 PM
(#10)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
I think x/r an over pair and barreling that turn is terrible so im in a tough spot on the turn and i dont see and random bluffs x/r flop and barrel that turn.
 
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Thu Sep 18, 2014, 03:23 PM
(#11)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by birdayy View Post
I actually think the opposite. I think we should bet our draws with minimal SDV and check those with (ie hard card flush draws). We have a range advantage on this board so we should probably take advantage of it.
I agree with leveraging our range advantage ofc, but betting the flop isn't the only way to do it. If the villain is almost never folding to our flop bet then we're not really doing it well... we will have to fire multiple barrels to effect that plan.

We can similarly take advantage on the turn though. For instance, if he bets the turn and we raise, he will be hard pressed to continue with anything worse than a set. We pick up extra money from delayed c-bet bluffs the few times he was actually giving up otf, and show more strength than simply betting flop when checked to does, putting what I think is significantly more pressure on his flop check/call range.


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Thu Sep 18, 2014, 04:25 PM
(#12)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
Maybe it's the sleep deprivation but I can't seem to work equilab properly tonight.

Just to bring some finality to this, he showed up with KJo, no club, for a complete bluff. I'll admit he played it very convincingly but I wasn't listening to his story. Probably suffering from bluff fatigue at that point in the session. As after 4,500 odd hands I had seen enough crap to convince myself he could show up with worse.

I guess I got lucky this time.
 

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