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2 dollar unlimited hold them, turn decision

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2 dollar unlimited hold them, turn decision - Sat Sep 20, 2014, 05:52 AM
(#1)
CrazYJohnnie's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 641
Villain is 34/26 4.0 AF, over 63 hands. Loose preflop, but did not cbet often. Folded to 3bet 1 out of 3 times.



Fold turn?

Last edited by CrazYJohnnie; Sat Sep 20, 2014 at 06:08 AM..
 
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Tue Sep 23, 2014, 10:44 PM
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Tyirl's Avatar
Since: Dec 2012
Posts: 389
Quote:
Originally Posted by CrazYJohnnie View Post
Villain is 34/26 4.0 AF, over 63 hands. Loose preflop, but did not cbet often. Folded to 3bet 1 out of 3 times.

Fold turn?

I guess this really comes down to your read on the villain in this kind of situation.

This villain didn't c-bet on this flop, he made a "donk bet" which is not a derogatory statement, but just what it's called when someone does what he did on the flop which was to lead into you despite the fact that you were the final pre-flop aggressor. To me this play doesn't usually signify a lot of strength, but this is where it's helpful to have some reads on the villain. We have showdown value so I think calling on the flop is probably better than raising to try to get him to fold.

On the turn when he bets that size I don't really think that he has a strong hand. I could be wrong. The price he is giving us means that if we have 24% equity or better then we can call. If he actually does have some kind of a hand with a Q in it like QJ then our equity is only 11%, but does he really do this with a queen? I dunno. We are well ahead of any draws he could have, even if he has JT of hearts (which I doubt, but I'm just making an example) our equity is 59% on the turn. I guess I would want to call this sizing on the turn and reevaluate on the river.


T
 
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Tue Sep 23, 2014, 11:57 PM
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ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,363
Call turn, fold if he bets river.

It's not a huge mistake to fold the turn, but if you make a habit of folding 2nd pair top kicker in position BvB, you're quite exploitable. Villain can easily have a worse hand or draw here, which is why notes/reads are just as important as stats. i.e. If I knew this guy donks with flush/straight draws, I'm never folding the turn.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Thu Sep 25, 2014, 05:00 PM
(#4)
CrazYJohnnie's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 641
Yes, as i thought about it it occured to me that actually his weak bet OTT might mean weak Q or a draw, this type of player would deffo raise JT BvB.
Surely it seems like i should call turn here most of the time and with top kicker like 90% of time and decide OTR.
Had no additional reads tho.
 

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