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When do you fold your flush draw?

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When do you fold your flush draw? - Sat Sep 27, 2014, 09:32 PM
(#1)
diffnerd's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 4
I was doing well in a $3.30 tourney - enjoying the game, felt I was playing well - chip leader for about two hours. The guy next to me has just double up and is threatening my chip lead.

This hand sent me to tilty...



Let me take you through my thought process. QTs looks pretty. I'm in the cut-off and feel like the pot is almost large enough to flat call - I figure if I flat call the SB will have no choice but to flat call and see a cheap flop. This gives me an implied pot-odds of >5:1 and position.

The flop comes - it looks fairly good - 5, 3, A with the A & 3 in our suit. It's a good flop. Everyone checks to me. I'm worried about the king in our suit and decide to bet to give the king a reason to go away if he is off-suit. I bet 3200 into 5160. The two early positions call me, the rest fold.

The turn comes - 7 off suit. Pot is now 14760. My flush is 25% away. Villain 1 checks, villain 2 shoves 15,200 into the pot. Obviously a check would have been better here (if he had checked, I probably would have bet out his stack size to try and push them off). My feeling is that he is trying to protect an Ace (top pair). I have plenty of chips, so I call - my reasoning is that since Villain 1 has come with us this far he will see the stupidly large pot and call, which he does.

The river comes 5off suit. villain 1 had three of a kind, but rivered a boat. villain 2 takes the side pot with his A8.


A few questions I have:
1. I'm comfortable with the flat call pre-flop, even though this is outside my normal range because of pot-size and position. Where would I be looking to fold this hand?
2. The post-flop bet is where i think it all went wrong - should I have checked?
3. The turn call - in hindsight I feel like I went from playing poker to gambling. Should this have been a snap-fold?
4. If everyone had checked the turn to me, I probably would have bet to try and push them off - is this the right play, or the wrong play? I feel like a bet to shove them off here requires the post-flop bet to be convincing.
5. Is my reasoning OK or what should I look at changing?
 
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Sat Sep 27, 2014, 09:51 PM
(#2)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,517
I think I fold pre. QTs is a pretty hand, but it's also a trouble hand that makes a lot of 2nd best hands that cost you money. I might call with QJs here, but I think even that is iffy. I'd also prefer to be on the button or in the BB closing the action. When you call in the CO, you'll get overcalled or squeezed pretty often. While it seems that multiple callers would improve your pot odds with draws, it also means you'll be playing a big pot, and possibly risking your whole stack. You don't really want to ever risk your tourney life with queen high. (Fortunately, you have everyone covered in this particular spot, so you won't go broke, but I still think the risk outweighs the reward).

As played, I don't mind the flop bet, although I think you can get away with just betting half pot, as villains will either be calling or folding with top pair whether you make it 50% or 90% of pot. When you're semi-bluffing, you should bet the smallest amount that will have the desired effect. Since you'd prefer villains to fold, but also keep the price of your draw cheap if possible, half pot should work. (Villains won't call with less than top pair, since you're repping that you have Ax yourself).

On the turn, you only have a 19% chance of making the flush and a villain overbet shoved. You don't have the right odds to call this, as you need 33% equity to call a pot-sized bet. If both villains had checked, I would recommend you check back and take a free card, because villains aren't ever folding top pair, let alone a set.


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Sat Sep 27, 2014, 09:56 PM
(#3)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Just looking at question #1. The utg opener is about 40bb and their range to open is perceived strong AQ+. With all the over calls we are in a bad spot.

There no specific odds to flop a flush draw. Allbeit to say difficult to do and we don't nut that flush. So IMO it's a fold pre flop.

PS. Oops just over lapped Arty's post.

Last edited by ForrestFive; Sat Sep 27, 2014 at 09:56 PM.. Reason: overlap
 
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Sat Sep 27, 2014, 10:02 PM
(#4)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,517
Quote:
Originally Posted by ForrestFive View Post
There no specific odds to flop a flush draw.
Er.. There are.
With suited cards, you'll flop a flush draw a little less often than a pocket pair flops a set. Off the top of my head, it's about 11% of the time. Whether it's a strong flush draw depends on your cards and the board texture, however.


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Sat Sep 27, 2014, 10:07 PM
(#5)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
OK, I stand corrected. The idea of using implied odds to hit a potential flush that we don't nut with our holding doesn't work for me. Fold.
 
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Sat Sep 27, 2014, 10:33 PM
(#6)
sparkes25's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 645
i fold pre flop, the hand is just to weak vs the utg and a string of callers. also when you call you are giving the blinds a good price to call or squeeze.

if i do get to the turn i am folding to that bet as the pot odds are only 2-1 that you hit a flush that may be good and you need about 5-1 for the call to be even ev if you expect him to bet with an Ax hand.

even if you do hit you may not win as its not nuts, in this case the 5 and 7 of clubs are no good. your only out to the nuts is the Kc.
 
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Sun Sep 28, 2014, 01:51 AM
(#7)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 25,157
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Hey all!

We're plenty deep enough, with the chips already in the pot, to call preflop, so I don't mind the call since we're in position.

However, on the flop, I'm checking behind and hoping to get a free turn card. What I don't want to do is to make an abnormal bet when it checks to me. A standard bet with this many opps is a pot-sized bet, so I either need to pot it or check, and I choose to check (a pot bet will pot-commit some of the opps, so I'd then be forced to call the shorter stack's shoves.. not what I want to do).

The answer to the question in the title is.... when I do not have the correct odds to continue. Here, when the opp shoves on the turn, I need to call 15713 into a pot that will be 46186 (34%). I have 9 outs to my flush and from the rule of 4 and 2, each out is worth 2%.. so my hand is worth 18%. Since my pot equity is higher than my hand equity, I expect to LOSE chips here by calling (lose 16% on average)... when I expect to lose chips, that's when I need to get out of the hand.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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