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Awkward river spot with top set

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Awkward river spot with top set - Mon Sep 29, 2014, 03:38 AM
(#1)
adikumar2010's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,094
It is $5.50 MTT with less then 200 runners. 10mins regular blind structure and 3000 starting stack.

I don't know what to do on river as the flush completed

I have 5 options (me-him-me) :

1) Bet-shove-call (pray he doesn't have flush)
2) Bet small-shove-fold (Coz he can't shove anything worst then flush maybe under sets)
3) Check-Call any bet size (I don't care I have top set)
4) Check-Call only if its 1/2 pot bet max (Top set is good for max 50% pot bet)
5) Check-Any Bet Size-Fold (I am sure he will not bet anything but flush)

Problem with checking: I have exactly pot size bet left in my stack, he will move me all in and I will be crying what to do

Good things about betting small: He might call off two pairs, top pair, under sets and you get value from so many hands that you beat.

Problem with betting: He might shove on you even with two pair or under set, he doesn't care about flush. He will say I have a set, I am shoving river, this player can't have a flush. Which means I bet he shove, maybe I will fold a better hand.

But if he is a cautious player and knows little bit about poker then he will mostly shove flushes on my river bet.

If bet then how much?

If check-call then what's the max bet size to call?

Full Tilt Poker Game #34743998089: $750 Guarantee (276785822), Table 1 - NL Hold'em - 20/40 - 12:55:47 IST - 2014/09/29 [03:25:47 ET - 2014/09/29]
Seat 1: dug0huz0 (2,820)
Seat 2: ArKip89 (5,825)
Seat 3: adikumar2010 (3,335)
Seat 4: leafsfreak (2,385)
Seat 5: sdavydov (2,880)
Seat 6: Shevel_Nik (3,690)
Seat 7: DoUknowMYname (3,843)
Seat 8: 170870 (3,060)
DoUknowMYname posts the small blind of 20
170870 posts the big blind of 40
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to adikumar2010 [ ]
dug0huz0 folds
ArKip89 folds
adikumar2010 raises to 100
leafsfreak has 15 seconds left to act
leafsfreak calls 100
sdavydov folds
Shevel_Nik calls 100
DoUknowMYname calls 80
170870 folds
*** FLOP *** [ ] (Total Pot: 440, 4 Players)
DoUknowMYname checks
adikumar2010 bets 290
leafsfreak folds
Shevel_Nik calls 290
DoUknowMYname folds
*** TURN *** [ ] [] (Total Pot: 1,020, 2 Players)
adikumar2010 has 15 seconds left to act
adikumar2010 bets 640
Shevel_Nik calls 640
*** RIVER *** [ ] [] (Total Pot: 2,300, 2 Players)
adikumar2010

STATS :
 
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Mon Sep 29, 2014, 11:12 AM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,819
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Hi adikumar2010!

Before we get to the river.. we need to look at the problems in the hand that lead up to it because these influence our river play.

Preflop, I'm definitely going to make a standard raise with KK.

On the flop, I need to make a standard value bet (3/4 pot or 330 chips). By betting less than this, I'm telling the opps that I either whiffed the flop or have a draw.

The turn gives me a set and I once again, need to make a standard value bet. With only 1 opp left, I need to bet 1/2 pot or 510. By now over-betting on a card that did not complete a draw, any observant opp now knows that I have a king. They don't know I have a set, but I absolutely have a king. If all 3 bets before the river were standard, the opp wouldn't know if I have a draw, 1 pair, 2 pair, etc... but with the bet pattern that is taken into the hand, they know I hit the king.

I'm now left with an SPR of 1 and both the straight and flush draws hit on the river. I have 2 plays here, either to shove or check.

Betting small or betting less than a shove is out of the question, as I'm pot-committed to any bet. If I do this, and call a shove, if the opp does so, I'm basically never ahead as they know I hit the king and intentionally pot-committed myself, so I have to call a shove and cannot fold... so they should only shove with a flush or AQ... both of which beat me. If they have nothing, they fold and they only shove if they beat me, so I'm 100% value-owning myself if I choose this option. This is the exact opposite of what I want to happen, as I want to get value from worse hands and give the opp the opportunity to fold a straight (which could happen if the bets were standard but since they know I have a king, if they hit the straight, they know they're good).

If I check, the opp's in the same situation that I am with regards to their stack, so they're either checking behind (if they can't beat a king) or shoving (if they can). With the opp being passive in the hand so far, they should only be betting hands that beat me... so I don't like checking. I get no value from worse and have to call when I'm beat.

This leaves my best option... open-shove the river. Yes, the opp could show up here with AQ or AdXd and will a % of the time, but this is why I need to be following proper bankroll management. If they have it, so be it, I'll load up another tournament.

The biggest keys to this hand though are the bet sizes throughout it. Due to the abnormal sizes, the opp knows that I have a king and can then play their hand accordingly. If standard bet sizes were made throughout the hand, it makes it much easier for my shove on the river to get called by worse as they won't know that they have to beat a K on the river and it also makes it possible for them to fold AQ on the river too, as my hand could easily be a flush and not Kx. In a situation like this, all that making the non-standard bets does, is to get us value-owned as we turned our hand face-up.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)

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Mon Sep 29, 2014, 02:21 PM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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Adi,

On the river, I think our next best option, which is really sick, is to probably check/fold since our hand's now face-up.

John (JWK24)


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Mon Sep 29, 2014, 02:38 PM
(#4)
adikumar2010's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,094
Check-fold to anybet? coz he is likely to put me on AA or AK. But problem with checking is he can still shove his two pairs like JT, KT, KJ and under sets like JJ 33 44 TT for value and I might be folding the best hand.

What's wrong with betting small like 700 and folding to a shove, betting will only make him go over the top with either straight or flush !

If I lose 700 and fold to shove I will still be left with 40BB which is playable.
 
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Mon Sep 29, 2014, 02:43 PM
(#5)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,819
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Any bet other than a shove does not make sense. Any standard bet (1/2 pot) is over 1/3 of our remaining stack, which means we're pot-committed. If I'm pot-committed, I have 2 viable options.. shove or fold... anything in-between is wrong.

John (JWK24)


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Mon Sep 29, 2014, 03:10 PM
(#6)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,819
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Here's another reason why the overbet on the turn is so bad.

We cannot have AA here (we can have AK, but not AA). This is due to the bets. AA from a knowledgeable player is not going to underbet a flop and give the opps the correct odds to outdraw them. Due to the small flop bet, AA should not be in our range (if I do take this line with AA, then every player at the table should be making a note about my bet patterns, as they're easy to exploit and outdraw). I can have AK and that's what most will probably put me on. Due to the overbet on the turn, I'm showing Kx at showdown here every single time (or once again, everyone watching should be making notes and exploiting me in the future).

I'd like to get paid by 2 pair here.. BUT... JT is getting folded out by the K and the overbet on the turn, as they cant beat a K. They know I have a king, so since they're behind, JT folds. KT is not calling the flop bet with 1 overcard.. so it's out of their range. This leaves only KJ and we have 2 kings and there is one on the board, so this combination, while still in their range, is very highly unlikely.

Sets on the flop, while in their range, also are severely diminished by the flop bet. It's TOO SMALL, so any made hand that thinks they're ahead HAS to raise. They didn't raise the flop, so I'm discounting 33, 44, JJ. If we had made a standard bet on the flop and turn, these are absolutely within their range, but due to the non-std bets, they're really not. Once again, if I show up with 33, 44, JJ, every opp should me making notes that I don't know how to price opps out... giving them free reign to keep trying to outdraw me in the future and exploit me.

Here's why betting 700 doesn't work. If I check and the opp has nothing, I win the pot. If they do, I lose and fold to their shove, so I lose the pot.
If I bet 700 and they don't have anything, I get the same pot that I get by checking. If the opp does have a hand, now I'm still folding and losing the pot.. but now I'm losing an extra 700 chips.

Not betting small on the river here is a great example of where tournament strategy is totally different than cash game strategy, as chip preservation is as important as chip accumulation in tournaments as I have to account not only for chip EV, but tourney EV too.

John (JWK24)


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