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16nl Cash table, AKo, 4bet pot, BTN vs SB facing river shove...

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16nl Cash table, AKo, 4bet pot, BTN vs SB facing river shove... - Sat Oct 04, 2014, 08:26 AM
(#1)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
Pre-flop is pretty standard.

The guy has a healthy 3bet % of 5.5% and 10% from the SB. I am happy to take the pot with a 4bet or play for stacks if I have to.

On the flop, I cbet because I think while he can be *****d here with some sets, TT and 99 I can see, 77 maybe not so much, I don't think any of those are good calls pre-flop from him, I also think he has overcards in his range AQ, AJs, AK and if I can get him to fold those hands that is a good result for me.

Turn is a K, bink, but brings a third diamond. I think he can have some flush draws but that he can still be wider than that. I don't actually think I get a great deal of value with the overcards I mentioned above and if I am behind I will get all the action I want. So I check it back, I think this is risky if he is drawing, but I can still get away on a 4 flush board or 4 to a straight. QQ can't be discounted from his range either.

River is the perfect card, pretty much the one card I would choose if I had that option, he now shoves. He's far from a nit pre-flop and post-flop. I havent seen him at showdown at this point but I assume I can be good a lot of the time here.

Call?

 
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Sat Oct 04, 2014, 08:40 AM
(#2)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Hey bhoy

Are you thinking that because you checked the turn after betting the flop, that the villain's put you on one pair hand or whatever, and so there's a chance he's attempting to steal the pot with a busted draw with possibly lesser pair, like 8d 8x, or the QQ you mentioned before? Guess you guys could also be tied, or he could have a K with lesser kicker as well.

Guess one concern on a middling suited and connected, 3-straight, 3-flush board, would be that ... not only does the villain have flushes and straights in his range, it's also possible he might have 9T, or 99, TT and have AK beat that way.

But maybe this hand comes down to reads - like if the villain would check-raise the flop with all his strong draws/overs, and 2prs and sets, then maybe would that just leave lesser pairs that you have beat in the villain's range, if the villain's one to possibly try stealing in this spot?

Absent showdown info though ... gosh, like while there's $20 in the middle and it's *only* $10 to call, on the flip-side you've only put $6 into the middle, so to put in $10 more ... think I'd want to be a lot more sure than 33% that my AK is good (with 33% being EV neutral). But guess there's room for opinions to differ on a call based on the %s ... am sure you played it fine no matter which you chose

Last edited by TrustySam; Sat Oct 04, 2014 at 08:57 AM.. Reason: added some stuff
 
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Sat Oct 04, 2014, 08:53 AM
(#3)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
Hi Sam,

I think the villain here is certainly capable of putting me on un-made hands. I'm no longer a nit so I don't have to have the goods in this spot. I would often check the turn when I am actually giving up on the hand because they call my flop bet. How aware of that he is I don't know. We've played 200+ hands against each other today at a couple of tables so if he is observant then he might have noted that.

I think he can have 99/TT, I would like to think he folds T9s/T9o to a 4 bet, I don't think he calls that wide.

On the river, I have intentionally checked turn because I want him to be as wide as possible and I want him to turn worse hands into a bluff. I got the action I was asking for.

I also think at 16NL there is a tonne of misplaced aggression.
 
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Sat Oct 04, 2014, 09:03 AM
(#4)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by bhoylegend View Post
I also think at 16NL there is a tonne of misplaced aggression.
Hey bhoy - went and added an extra paragraph about price to call and how sure we are that we're good ... sounds like you had good reason to feel well over 33% certain ... like more in the range of 67%? 80%? 90%? loll

Even if the villain had turned over TT, it sounds like a call here would have be +EV


Nice hand bhoy!!
 
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Sat Oct 04, 2014, 11:12 AM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
Hi bhoy,

It seems to me our river play is not really clear because of the line we chose, and that stems back to the flop c-bet. This flop texture is really bad for us... not just because it missed us, but also because it interacts pretty well with the villain's range and is a great board to bluff/semi-bluff because it generally will not be helpful to our 4b range. This is the type of spot I will tend to check rather than bet.

Quote:
I cbet because I think while he can be *****d here with some sets, TT and 99 I can see, 77 maybe not so much, I don't think any of those are good calls pre-flop from him, I also think he has overcards in his range AQ, AJs, AK and if I can get him to fold those hands that is a good result for me.
It's not just sets, but also hands like JT, QJ, 88, a number of diamond draws as we don't block any, etc. I did a range analytic and he can have pairs down to 5's is what I came up with... and I think our 4b gets called by frequently if villain 3b them in the first place. Whether or not these calls of our 4b is good with the more marginal stuff, I think people make them button v blind because they just don't credit us as strongly.

So when you consider his range, stuff he might fold to your bet is basically 55/66 and non-draw overcards which you're beating anyway... meaning the range that continues on the flop is much stronger. So a c-bet only tends to accomplish folding out the weakest hands he has, and gets continued action from the decent % of his preflop range that interacts with this flop in some way, which isn't great for us. There are a number of draws in that mix which we are currently ahead of, but no way to know which cards beat us.

If you are c-betting this spot you are probably c-betting near 100% in 4b pots, something to look at as while we should be c-betting frequently in 4b pots, 100% is a leak.

Anyway, as played I feel lost on the river. The line we took seems to beg for a call as we look a lot like QQ/JJ, but there's the problem of identifying what combos he gets to the river with that would need to bluff now to win? AQd/AJd are the only ace high hands really. AJo if he has continued with it. Everything else is a better hand or has showdown value, which is a problem for us since his moving us all in somewhat polarizes him imo, removing a lot of the showdown value stuff (like JTs, KQ, etc). And in light of that, I'm just not sure there's enough bluff combos left.

In flopzilla I come up with a value range of 77/99/TT/QJs/AQd/AJd (15 combos) and 11 ace highs (all AJ combos except diamonds), so we are a 15-11 dog (1.4-1) ASSUMING he gets to the river with AJo and he bluffs 100% of the time with ace high. If he doesn't bluff much, or if he doesn't continue on the flop with AJo, that number changes. For instance if he folds AJo on the flop to our c-bet 100% then we become a 15-2 dog and have a super easy fold.

On balance, although I feel like calling because of the line we took, I'm not sure there's enough bluffs in his range to justify it. Not likely a huge error in either direction though.


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Sat Oct 04, 2014, 04:41 PM
(#6)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
I cbet 86% in 4bet pots apparently, over about 460 opportunities, so its not 100% and I do check flops like these. I havent done an analysis yet but I imagine I probably do that when OOP.

Its probably a bad sign then that I thought, in game, this was a snap call.

I guess I got lucky this time, he had KQ of clubs, so he turned his hand into a bluff. Although, at 16NL, I continue to believe people will think this is for value.
 
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Sun Oct 05, 2014, 11:23 AM
(#7)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bhoylegend View Post
at 16NL, I continue to believe people will think this is for value.
Haha have we all not done that before when we were playing our B(C)-game? Where the person we're playing against is tricky, and so we're not quite sure where we stand ... but we think we might be good ... although we suspect we might not be...

And the next thing that's happened, suddenly we've pressed the bet button without fully thinking things through, and then sit there waiting for the villain to respond thinking something along the lines of like ... gosh, if the villain has AA, hope he folds ... but if he has JJ, hope he calls? loll

Or not??

It's like a 'value-bluff' or something


Probably it speaks more to the fact that you're check on the turn did help get him to spew bhoy


You know what's interesting about zoom vs regular tables, is that while there's so much stuff that's similar to both games, what could be right for you could be wrong for me, and vice versa, so like I totally feel that if your time spent at the tables has led you to believe that it's best to err on the side of calling in this spot, then it's really important for you to maintain trust in that read.

Sometimes it can be easy to start to doubt our reads, in reading through other peoples thoughts, but like I totally feel like in this spot, you'd know best so yeah that's important ...

What was great about Dave's analysis was getting to hear his ranging - I totally missed all those hands like the AJ with the nut flush blocker ... so thanks Dave for the really detailed analysis, and thanks bhoy for sharing your hand here in HA
 
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Sun Oct 05, 2014, 12:14 PM
(#8)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
ty, good discussion. If he's bad enough to shove KQ for value (targeting QQ/JJ he should bet smaller imo, or not bet) then it becomes a call. There really wasn't any relevant read given, but if you have a decent sample and the villain is a winning player, I don't think they'll show up with Kx when the shove... if they are a losing player then it's more possible they don't think about things like what range they're targeting for a call and what sizing best accomplishes that and so forth, so they end up mashing KQ because they just think it's good and don't go beyond that.


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Sun Oct 05, 2014, 05:30 PM
(#9)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Dave i thought our Ad hands would make a better bluff jam on the river as the flush got there and we know villain don't have the nut flush or am i missing something.
 
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Sun Oct 05, 2014, 05:46 PM
(#10)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
I don't understand what you're saying Mike. We have top/top hand are jammed into.


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Sun Oct 05, 2014, 07:07 PM
(#11)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
You was talking about the bluffs that villain might show up with and removed the Ad Jx? I was just saying isn't it better for him to jam the Ad?

Or does the blocker not play because hero would barrel his flushes.
 
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Sun Oct 05, 2014, 07:21 PM
(#12)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
No, that's not what I was saying. What I was saying is the only hand he can really show up with at the river that would be bluffing here is AJ for ace high, but we don't know A) how often he calls the flop c-bet with AJ and B) how often he bluff shoves it otr as opposed to giving up.


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Mon Oct 06, 2014, 01:10 PM
(#13)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
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Kind of get the feeling the villain was maybe worried that if he checked the river, bhoy would know he didn't have a straight or flush, and he was felt like bhoy was capable of both going for thin value and bluffing this river, so when it was his turn to act, he decided that betting was better than checking, because he didn't want to be the one that had to make the tough decision? And like with the odd stack sizes, he couldn't really bet less maybe or something ...

Bet he was really not happy to be in this spot with bhoy on his button


There used to be the occasional spot like this for me at 10nl, where some of the more maniacal players were beginning to experiment with light 3-bets on the button, and wow did it ever get *awkward* ... does anybody remember me posting this hand in my thread - what a disaster ... that was like an all-time low of noobiness loll



And then I even went so far as to make up a 'Bluff Catching template': http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/for...116#post442116

Quote:
Originally Posted by TrustySam View Post
Revised Bluff-Catching Template

Typical characteristics of spots where villains might be more inclined to try a river bluff:

● 3-bet and/or multiway pots and/or vs a shortstack
   ● because of the low spr
   ● lots of money in the middle
   ● awkward stack sizes
      ● is the villain's stack by the river too small to bet-fold?
● Between the cut-off and blinds
● Versus unknowns
● Really wet boards (straights and flushes possible)
   ● but is it still possible for the villain to have a failed draw? Or two?
● Have we given them reason to think our hand isn't that strong?
   ● have we bet, then checked?
   ● when we bet, did we bet a little on the small side?
   ● did we just call when usually we'd reraise?
● What about the villain?
   ● is the villain the type to bluff?
   ● is there reason to perceive weakness in the villain's line? Did he check when he would usually bet?
   ● was the reraise an overbet - ie does it seem more like the villain wants us to fold rather than call?
● Is the 3/4-to-a-flush non-A-high, such that the villain might be holding the A of that same suit as a blocker to the nut draw?
Although paradoxically, up at 25nl where the light 3/4-betting/calling is a lot more common, it seems like river bluffing is far less common? Because people have better control of their stacks maybe? Or otherwise they don't give off enough tells to make calling a good idea? Like for me it's seemed far, far more important to remember that general rule that hand strengths need to rise in value in 3-bet pots, as peoples' hand strengths and the sizes of the pots grow?

But guess it's important to be prepared for every possibility though, so like ... guess it might be beneficial to always at least consider the possibility that a villain might have bluffs or semi-bluffs in his range, even if they tend to be fairly rare?

On the other hand, it sounds like at regular tables bluff-catching might be more common?
 

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